SE Texas weather thread #2 - Flood watch issued!

[Johnny]

Yep, I was wathing the sunset jschlitz. The sun displayed some awesome colors on the mid level cloud deck.

[CajunMama]

RAIN! RAIN! omg..it's actually raining here!

[JenBayles]

A few houses down from Brookside Village in Pearland, TX. I don't know why my signature doesn't show. I just went to my profile again and the box is checked so I'm not sure why it's not working.

Yep - you're working! Got your ark ready for tonite?

[jasons2k]

BTW - I know this is late but it hasn't been posted. It's a little odd - looks like another case of the weather today behaving the opposite of what they thought (within an hour no less...)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1042 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO SE TX THIS MORNING. PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS OF 78 TO 80 HAVE SPREAD AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HOUSTON AREA. FURTHER NORTH...PWS REMAIN IN THE 1.1-1.3
INCH RANGE. ACTUAL WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES PUSHING NORTH. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM BOTH
DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER OUR SRN HALF. HOWEVER...12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME
LIMITING FACTORS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...NAMELY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS (+12-+13 AT 700 MB). 12Z LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING IN PLACE. WHILE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
DEVELOP IN NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS...THINK CAPPING...WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR (HEL <100 M2/S2) WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT TODAY. WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS AFTN...AND
WILL RESTRICT MENTION OF SEVERE TO THE HWOHGX. THE MAIN EVENT IS
EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HEAVY RAINS APPEAR LIKELY THIS PERIOD AND
WILL BE KEEPING THE FFA GOING. AT THIS POINT...HAVE JUST MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST.

[JenBayles]

Well, the Bear Creek Dome failed this morning. Had a good 45 minute downpour while the warm front moved through. Lots of runoff since we're still so saturate from Tuesday's event. I really hope the advertised pounding for tonite and tomorrow morning doesn't pan out.

[Miztiki]

Got your ark ready for tonite?

I thought I'd just ride along in yours.

I won't be able to sleep if it's storming hard. So they expect most of them to come through in the overnight hours then? If that's the case then I'll be sure to take a long nap this afternoon.

[Johnny]

So much for the CAP.....

[jasons2k]

So much for the CAP.....

Yeah really - and so much for the convection concentrating on the "southern half" too. Sheesh.

[jasons2k]

Just got a storm report on GR3 in Lake Charles - 18th Street, Prien Lake Rd & Common Street impassable with flooded cars.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a serious severe/rain event could be in store for today and tonight, but take a look at the forecast following all this mess. It looks even better today than yesterday (we now have 2 days forecast with highs in the 60s and 3 mornings that will flirt with the 40s):

This Afternoon: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe, with heavy rain. Low around 65. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday: Periods of rain and thunderstorms before 10am, then a chance of rain. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 67. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. North wind around 5 mph becoming east.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 69.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

[Yankeegirl]

No rain here as of yet... Its sunny out...

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR A ANOTHER BIG RAIN EVENT ACROSS
SE TX TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG I-10 AT MID
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTH. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER NRN HARRIS AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WARM FRONT AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. GPSMET DATA/GOES SOUNDER SHOWS PWS OF 2.3 TO 2.6
INCHES SOUTH OF I-10 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS OF 78 TO 81 IN THIS AREA.
THESE VALUES ARE "OFF THE CHARTS" FOR THE 3RD WEEK OF OCTOBER. BY LATE
TONIGHT...SE TX WILL GO INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 110-120 KT JET MAX
WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG
200-300 MB DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA BY LATE TNGT/THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND DFW TO SJT AT 19Z...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 12 MPH. ON THIS PACE...FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NRN ZONES AROUND
06Z AND THE COAST AROUND 12Z...THOUGH IT MAY SLOW A BIT AS IT CROSSES
OUR CWA. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM OR
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
AFFECTING THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. THIS IS
WHEN THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL TAKE PLACE. WILL
MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.
WILL FORECAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN...WILL UP THE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO THE 5
TO 10 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

THE NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AND HIGH LAPSE
RATES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS SE
TX TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE AS ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR DOWNBURSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...850 MB
FRONT DOES NOT CROSS SE TX UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AFTN WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST OF SE TX WILL SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
ON THURSDAY...20 DEG+ COOLER THAN TODAY. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH GREAT FALL WEATHER. LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SATURDAY...WHICH PUSHES NEXT
FRONT ACROSS SE TX LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA AND GREATER MOISTURE RETURN
THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE UPPED POPS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FIRST REALLY STRONG FRONT TO CROSS MOST OF THE GULF...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Red = Bad News
Blue = Good News

[PTrackerLA]

Raining pretty good here in Lafayette. Storms aren't moving that much either so we could end up with some heavy rains. Who knows maybe THIS system is our big event as the last one was a huge bust. I've also noticed the rains are consolidating in a line near the I-10 corridor while it's sunny just south of here. These storms will have plenty of energy to fuel them so someone is going to get some hefty totals today.

[Yankeegirl]

All the storms are popping up just a little north of my area and moving to the north east pretty quickly,. Im sure things will change later on tonight!!!

[Miztiki]

There's only one, teeny, tiny little cell in all of Brazoria County and of course it went over my house while I was out getting the mail (which happens to be 700 feet down the driveway).

I'm soaked!

[Johnny]

We've got a big time gully washer going on just south of The Woodlands. It looks like I will have a nasty ride home. Come on cold front!

[JenBayles]

I like the color-coded editing job there Extreme.
So just exactly where is our pesky front right now? I'm not really seeing it on sat and radar. Is it just not going to get active until it hits the Houston Soup?

[Yankeegirl]

I know there is a severe thunderstorm watch to our west...untill 10 pm... so i am thinking somewhere between 8 and 10 (if it all holds together) is when our watch may be issued.... just my thoughts... nothing written in stone...

[JenBayles]

Yeah, it's gonna be a late night for we Houston weather-watchers. Still haven't recovered my faculties from our last event on Monday.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:
Flash Flood Watch extended until 1000am Thursday.

Per 330pm NWS con call.

Widespread 2-4” of rain tonight with isolated 5-10 inches possible. Such rainfall will cause additional flooding problems. Timing should be after 900pm through the morning rush hour.

Do NOT drive into high water.

Main channel concerns are along Clear Creek, Halls Bayou, Willow Creek, San Jacinto River,

Jeff Lindner