AccuWeather Releases 2006–2007 Winter Forecast

[CaptinCrunch]

Expect midwinter to be colder and stormier than normal in the South and East; warmer and drier over the Northwest into the northern Plains.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.as ... winter2006

Well, this forecast is more like what I expect for the coming winter. El Nino patteren already taking shape for Texas. Wheather it stays at the current weak state or becomes more moderate it will still mean a wetter and cooler/colder than normal winter for much of north and central Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB, in his coloumn, was also saying that he expects this January to be the exact opposite of last January (which featured record heat).

He also said that 63-64 is a good analalog for TX this year and that a few winter weather events could reach well south into the state.

[JonathanBelles]

i like the forecast

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

JB, in his coloumn, was also saying that he expects this January to be the exact opposite of last January (which featured record heat).

He also said that 63-64 is a good analalog for TX this year and that a few winter weather events could reach well south into the state.

I'll see if I can get a snow shovel on Ebay!

[Portastorm]

If I understand JB's forecast for this winter correctly, he is suggesting El Nino and an active Southern jet will keep our weather in Texas very wet through mid winter but after that, El Nino's effects relax some and a more "normal" winter will take place.

He did suggest several winter weather events might come as far south as Austin or College Station this winter season.

Whether he's right or not, time will tell.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

If I understand JB's forecast for this winter correctly, he is suggesting El Nino and an active Southern jet will keep our weather in Texas very wet through mid winter but after that, El Nino's effects relax some and a more "normal" winter will take place.

He did suggest several winter weather events might come as far south as Austin or College Station this winter season.

Whether he's right or not, time will tell.

A couple of hard freezes to kill the bugs and the mold along with periods in between of prolonged periods of cool damp Seattle like weather would be good in my book. If we get some true winter precip threats, that would be icing on the cake.

Plus all of the above would help big time in cooling off the Gulf which would benefit us all next Hurricane season.

Maybe that case of firelogs that's been in my garage since last winter will get all used up this year.

[richtrav]

Hmm, it's just wrong and unnatural for Corpus to have long periods of cold damp weather. I find it really depressing, if I wanted nasty cold and damp I wouldn't be living in South Texas. A hard freeze would also inflict a lot of damage in Corpus, particularly to the vegetation. Plus it would do nothing to cool down the Gulf for more than a couple of weeks. But don't worry, with the northern plains looking to be so warm it will be hard for an Arctic outbreak that's massive enough to bring a hard freeze to Corpus. All of their analog years they used were pretty mild winters in South Texas, or at least lacked a hard freeze, with the semi-exception of 62-63

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Hmm, it's just wrong and unnatural for Corpus to have long periods of cold damp weather. I find it really depressing, if I wanted nasty cold and damp I wouldn't be living in South Texas. A hard freeze would also inflict a lot of damage in Corpus, particularly to the vegetation. Plus it would do nothing to cool down the Gulf for more than a couple of weeks. But don't worry, with the northern plains looking to be so warm it will be hard for an Arctic outbreak that's massive enough to bring a hard freeze to Corpus. All of their analog years they used were pretty mild winters in South Texas, or at least lacked a hard freeze, with the semi-exception of 62-63

I grew up in the valley and I very well recall some winters in the 70's and 80's that were below normal that fit my discription to a "T". Come on, even down here we need to mix it up with the weather pattern. A hard freeze to us is sort of like wildfires in the west as it kills off old vegetation and allows for new to grow. True the Gulf would cool down for just awhile. But it wouldn't have a jump start like the past few years with the water temps running way above normal going into June 1.

[CaptinCrunch]

If I understand JB's forecast for this winter correctly, he is suggesting El Nino and an active Southern jet will keep our weather in Texas very wet through mid winter but after that, El Nino's effects relax some and a more "normal" winter will take place.

He did suggest several winter weather events might come as far south as Austin or College Station this winter season.

Whether he's right or not, time will tell.

El Nino usually reaches it's peak by mid to late december, and mid winter for Texas is Jan 1-15, so I would expect El Nino be it weak or moderate to have some effect on Texas through late spring.

Another effect of El Nino on the southeren U.S is a more active Severe Weather season from TX to GA since the SJS and storm track is futher South.

[chadtm80]

Colder in the south east? I will take it 91 here today

[richtrav]

LOL, no, we DON'T need a hard freeze in South Texas, it would cause serious injury and economic loss. It's like saying Corpus really NEEDS a Category 5 storm with a 30 foot storm surge to pass directly over the middle of town. Of course we can do nothing about either one, but -removed- for a disaster has always struck me as a little perverse.

Fortunately conditions have been generally warmer up at the traditional source region for Texas' Arctic outbreaks, so a repeat of the disastrous freezes like the two seen in the 1980s is probably not as likely as it was 25 years ago. Now a brief drop to the upper or even mid-twenties is realistic given past records, but you could probably count the total number of hours below 29-30F in Brownsville on one hand since 1990.

The perfect pattern could probably do it but the odds seem less likely than in past decades. That and given the pattern predicted for this winter, I haven't seen the horrible freezes from the past listed among the analog years. Can anyone either reinforce or dismiss this argument? Either way I'd like to hear a pro's opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

LOL, no, we DON'T need a hard freeze in South Texas, it would cause serious injury and economic loss. It's like saying Corpus really NEEDS a Category 5 storm with a 30 foot storm surge to pass directly over the middle of town. Of course we can do nothing about either one, but -removed- for a disaster has always struck me as a little perverse.

Fortunately conditions have been generally warmer up at the traditional source region for Texas' Arctic outbreaks, so a repeat of the disastrous freezes like the two seen in the 1980s is probably not as likely as it was 25 years ago. Now a brief drop to the upper or even mid-twenties is realistic given past records, but you could probably count the total number of hours below 29-30F in Brownsville on one hand since 1990.

The perfect pattern could probably do it but the odds seem less likely than in past decades. That and given the pattern predicted for this winter, I haven't seen the horrible freezes from the past listed among the analog years. Can anyone either reinforce or dismiss this argument? Either way I'd like to hear a pro's opinion.

This may be true for urban areas (due to the heat island), but rural areas likely have just as good as ever a chance to fall into the teens in S. Texas during the worst events.

These heat islands are even more evident up here in Houston though. Now a days, a 1989 level freeze would likely only reach the middle teens in downtown Houston (instead of single digits), but up my way (north of town), a temperature reading up to 10F colder than the city is still likely.

For instance, last year when it would be nearly 40F downtown, I would have a freeze at my house. IMO, I think one reason it seems "warmer" now is because the heat island has built up more around the previously rural recording stations and caused warmer temperatures to occur (especially at night).

[JQ Public]

woo hoo we're below normal in temps and above normal in snowfall here!!!!!!!!!!

[richtrav]

Mmm, of course the UHI effect is lower in South Texas than it is in large cities like Houston. The upper teens to low 20s are still a definite possibility in South Texas should an '89 type freeze were to return, but I'm thinking the general patterns aren't favorable for such an event to repeat any time real soon - it was after all the hardest freeze to hit the western Gulf region since 1899. Such a freeze would probably produce a temperature lower than the mid-teens in almost all of Houston. Worse than the actual temperature would be the winds that sap away most of the protection you get from an urban or protected site, plus the many hours (up to 2 days) spent waffing between the mid-20s to mid teens. That would cause most of the damage. The way the winters have been going lately it seems almost inconceivable that Houston could ever get that cold

[Portastorm]

I would have to concur. Even if El Nino relaxes some by mid winter, we have to consider the lag effect it will have on the pattern. This winter for us in central and south Texas will probably be marked more by borderline winter precip events with "the worst of it", temperature wise, being in the 20s and 30s.

Of course, that just makes it more fun as we'll all hang and haggle about the latest GFS and Euro model runs. I keep saying it ... I can't wait. That's always fun!