Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

[Thunder44]

Luis, there only appears to be 20kt to 30kt shear over system now as of the 9z CIMSS analysis and it's decreasing as well. Looking at obs and this morning's QS pass there appears to be a low over the Virgin Islands. If there thunderstorms weren't removed from the center, this would be probably a TD.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[bvigal]

Thanks for the heads up, Luis! This is the invest that keeps "going to come back", to quote a popular Caribbean expression. Isn't this the third time it has been revived?

Our rain has been steady with only a few periods of torrential downpours, but it's running down the roads and ghuts and ponding in the flat areas. Right now we are having 20-25kt wind gusts over about 10kts of actual wind, but earlier it was dead calm. Up at 1000ft can't see anything but the trees in immediate yard - feels like a tropical something.

One local measured 1.5" of rain the last 24hr period, which seems a bit on the light side from the amount of water pouring down the hills. Before radar went out last night, it had estimated 8" over Culebra - I wonder if MJ has power this morning? St. John and W. Tortola showed 4-5" on that radar estimate last night. This morning seems St. Croix is getting it, or at least they are reporting it, so they have flash flood warning.

Stay dry everyone, and check in with reports!

[Thunder44]

There appears to be two areas of low pressure along a trough axis. One very well defined visible imagery, just north of Domican Republic, with a pressure of 1004mb. Another weaker one forming over Eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with pressure of 1008mb:

[msbee]

We are being inundated with rain here too.
As I said before, we had 2.5 inches of rain on Tuesday. Yesterday was mostly dry but it began raining off and on during the night and this morning we have had hevay riain and thunder and lightning since about 5 AM.
schools are closed.. roads are flooded.
I bet a lot of people never made it to work.
My rain gauge says 3 inches and counting since over night.
It is still raining, although more lightly now, and we can still hear ongoing thunder.
It this thing ever gonna move????

[Thunder44]

668
ABNT20 KNHC 191513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

19/1745 UTC 20.2N 68.6W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


Thunder44,SSD is following the low that you have NW of Puerto Rico at the pic you posted.However,nothing will develop from this.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061019 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061019 1800 061020 0600 061020 1800 061021 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 65.6W 19.1N 64.8W 20.5N 64.7W 22.0N 65.0W
BAMM 18.0N 65.6W 18.8N 65.3W 20.0N 65.6W 21.5N 66.1W
A98E 18.0N 65.6W 18.3N 66.4W 18.9N 67.2W 19.4N 68.0W
LBAR 18.0N 65.6W 18.4N 65.6W 19.4N 65.7W 20.7N 65.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061021 1800 061022 1800 061023 1800 061024 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 65.3W 25.1N 63.2W 24.5N 60.1W 25.3N 55.7W
BAMM 23.0N 66.5W 24.5N 65.7W 25.0N 63.8W 26.5N 58.4W
A98E 20.1N 69.0W 21.0N 70.9W 22.8N 72.2W 26.9N 67.8W
LBAR 22.1N 66.0W 24.5N 64.8W 25.7N 63.0W 28.4N 61.0W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 49KTS 48KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 49KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 65.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 65.3W DIRM12 = 148DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 18.5N LONM24 = 65.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Thunder44]

19/1745 UTC 20.2N 68.6W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


Thunder44,SSD is following the low that you have NW of Puerto Rico at the pic you posted.However,nothing will develop from this.

There actually appears to be a third low now, somewhere between St. Kitts and Guadelope. I post a another image later. But I agree nothing will likely develop from this.

[cycloneye]

605
ABNT20 KNHC 192104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[SouthFloridawx]

I agree that this will probably not become much either but, there may be a window of oppotunity as it moves north to northwestward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=048hr

[knotimpaired]

The radar is still out but we are hearing boomers from the NW of the island. Also a nice light show.

We recieved 2.72 inches of rain yesterday for an Oct total so far of 8.43".

You can see our daily log from our weather station here.

http://www.playacofi.com/weather1/daily.htm

I feel sorry for our friends that are on the ferry half way between Vieques and Fajardo. I imagine when we pick them up at the dock we will hear how bad the ride was.

[Thunder44]

Here's the map of 3 low centers and along the trof axis I can find using. The one near the Hispanola coast still appears to better defined and the main one with a pressure near 1005mb. The others other appear weaker and ill-defined.

[dixiebreeze]

QuikScat looks very impressive on the NRL site.

[cycloneye]

000
NWUS52 TJSJ 192211
LSRSJU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 PM AST THU OCT 19 2006

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM AVALANCHE CIALES 18.34N 66.47W
10/19/2006 CIALES PR BROADCAST MEDIA

ADA CALLED TO REPORT MUDSLIDE ON ROAD 615 IN CIALES

0608 PM AVALANCHE CIALES 18.34N 66.47W
10/19/2006 CIALES PR BROADCAST MEDIA

MUDSLIDE REPORTED ON ROAD 615 IN CIALES


&&

$$

SROSSI

No tragic news occured at this area of the mudslide


The rainfall totals for today are not yet available but I can tell you that between 3-6 inches fell only this afternoon in northern and eastern Puerto Rico.And this is only a trough of low pressure,not a tropical wave nor a depression and look how much rain we are seeing.Since last friday as the system has been almost stationary between 8-12 inches has falled only in Puerto Rico.I know that in Culebra,Vieques,the Virgin Islands and the northern Leewards close to those totals haved fallen in the whole event since last friday.

This flash flood warning just came out.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC017-091-200145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
747 PM AST THU OCT 19 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING...
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
MANATI
BARCELONETA

* UNTIL 945 PM AST

* AT 745 PM AST...RIO GRANDE DE MANATI WAS RISING AND SUFFICIENT
WATER IS BELIEVED TO HAVE FALLEN IN THE BASIN UPSTREAM TO CARRY IT
TO FLOOD STAGE AROUND 830 PM IN MANATI. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING WHEN THE RIVER REACHES LOWER STAGES OF FLOODING SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS FOR RISING WATER.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CENTRAL
BARCELONETA AND NORTHWESTERN MANATI.

LAT...LON 1842 6646 1838 6647 1839 6653 1839 6659
1845 6657 1846 6654

$$

SNELL

[SouthFloridawx]

Shear right now is certainly fairly strong to allow thunderstorms to be able to stay over any area of low pressure that is trying to form but, since this system is moving NW'rd during the next day or so shear forecast (which I only like up to 72 Hours) look to as though maybe something could form past 24 hours into the latter portion of day 2.

00 Hour Shear = Now


48 Hours


But, all in all I would say that even if something forms there would be no threat to the Mainland US. However maybe some decent rain and gusty winds to some of the Bahama Islands.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048s.gif

500mb Heights/Wind 48 Hours from now, 18Z

It will get caught up in the westerlies beyond 48 hours.

Also to note is an Anti-Cyclone moving Eastward may also help ventilate the system as they should be in the same area in about 36 hours or so.

[caribepr]

With only two brief periods of rain this evening, we lucked out here (is the party I can hear over the hill a celebration of no bad rain today? That would be enough of a reason for a party around here).
We never lost power with the deluge of yesterday. Culebra is NOT like the VI's that way...we seem to lose power or water only in the middle of big holiday weekends for some reason I've not figured out.
It is so cool right now that my fans are off (I was getting cold), something very rare indeed this time of year.

[Thunder44]

Well this morning the low over Hispanola coast is still there, but it appears to be weakening with a pressure of 1006mb. The other two lows from yesterday have dissapated but a new low appears to be forming north of the Virgin Islands. Winds have switched to the west at St. Thomas with a pressure of 1006mb. There may be some attempt at organization here with the recent blow up of thunderstorms here.

[Thunder44]

588
WHXX01 KWBC 201245
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061020 1200 061021 0000 061021 1200 061022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 64.3W 20.6N 63.6W 22.1N 63.1W 23.3N 62.2W
BAMM 19.0N 64.3W 20.4N 64.2W 22.1N 64.2W 23.6N 63.6W
A98E 19.0N 64.3W 19.7N 63.8W 20.9N 63.6W 21.6N 63.5W
LBAR 19.0N 64.3W 20.2N 63.9W 21.5N 63.6W 23.1N 62.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061022 1200 061023 1200 061024 1200 061025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.5N 60.9W 21.8N 58.4W 20.9N 56.5W 21.5N 52.1W
BAMM 24.0N 62.7W 23.3N 60.8W 23.2N 58.7W 24.3N 53.2W
A98E 22.2N 63.2W 22.5N 62.9W 23.2N 61.6W 23.3N 57.9W
LBAR 24.1N 61.7W 24.7N 59.1W 25.4N 58.6W 29.9N 54.3W
SHIP 39KTS 41KTS 39KTS 33KTS
DSHP 39KTS 41KTS 39KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 64.3W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 65.4W DIRM12 = 36DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 65.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Thunder44]

You see with 12z models that just came out, they initial near where I had the new low developing this morning north of the Virgin Islands. Right it appears to be slowly moving to the NE and it has also appears to be separate itself from the trof axis. The other low over Hispanola appears to be opening up to a surface trough.

Map as of 12z:

[Sanibel]

Another 2006 ghost Low.

There are two weak surface features spinning out there. One just west of the Atlantic feature just east of the islands and one up north of Antigua in the Atlantic.