Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

[SouthFloridawx]

Although this area looks disorganized now we see the reason for that is a fair amount of windshear in the upper level. It's not much to look at now but, things may change over the next day for this area.

15-20 KTS currently over this invest.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I think over the next 18-36 Hours we'll see a gradual reduction in windshear according to gfs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=030hr

Also Looking at the 12Z run from today, it is forecasting an Upper Anti-Cyclone over this area of disturbed weather.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

This system doesn't appear to be moving much and should allow for some gradual organization over the next day or so.

I don't think it will become anything intense and needs to stay under the anti-cylconic flow in order to be better established. Maybe we'll get another depression or storm before it is ripped apart by the westerlies as it moves northward.

[abajan]

At my location, most of the day has been hot and dry but just during the last hour or so we've been experiencing moderate to heavy rain accompanied by surprisingly strong winds (with some gusts to storm force, in my estimation) out of the SE.

I'll keep you folk posted on the situation.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202102
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
HAVE BECOME DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[JonathanBelles]

when do NRL images get changed?

[JonathanBelles]

in the last 2 hours 90L is gone from NRL why?

[Chacor]

Gone off FNMOC too.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well it's probably no longer an area of interest. I would say it's not going to be much of an issue any longer except for more thunderstorms and rain for the islands. I would also expect that if there is something that develops and thunderstorms persist near an low pressure they will put it back up.

The info I posted above was not a forecast but, more like taking a look at the conditions during the next day or so if that area persists it may have had more favorable conditions ahead tomorrow and into the next.

[lester]

What does CONUS stand for?

Continential US (the lower 48)

thanks

[fci]

90 has been up and taken down I think about 3 times now.
Looks like it is moving away from the islands after dumping well over enough rain.

[SouthFloridawx]

There was definitely an area of low pressure associated with 90L but, it lacks any convection or thunderstorm organization.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html



It's about to get caught up in the westerlies and have no shot now.

[MiamiensisWx]

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see 90L briefly reinstated at or beyond 48 hours, or at least be issued as a new INVEST. As the weak low merges with the upper-level trough, we may see some convection briefly refire near the low center as it merges with the approaching middle to upper-level trough from the northwest as it transitions into a more colder-core ULL. This could also allow some brief subtropical characteristics by 60 to 96 hours roughly before mid-level shear from the next trough should do the system in and aid in final extratropical transition. Just some partial thoughts and analysis here.

[Sanibel]

Windy, dry front passing through here now. Should dry out anything ahead of it.