SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

Extremeweatherguy · #41 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:28 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Just for laughs (until it becomes a trend), check out the 12Z GFS's ARCTIC BLAST it shows entering TX next weekend:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Front slicing in on Friday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Saturday morning is filled with snow and ice for the northern part of the state, and a cold rain (in the 30s or 40s) for most of SE Texas.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^A frigid Sunday^^

Wouldn't this be crazy if it played out!

I must not be reading the map right. It doesn't look frigid to me. Maybe it is in the semantics. Cold for Houston, yes. Frigid, no. Correct me if I am wrong, but that map doesn't show us anywhere near frigid, but at 50º across SE TX.

Frigid for October that is (not January). Surface temps on that map look to be well into the 40s across the entire area on that Sunday morning with a nice northerly breeze making it feel quite chilly for sure. It also shows a cloudy, chilly (<60F) day for the Saturday before.

The new run, however, is a bit different and shows less cloud cover/rain behind the front, but still some very cool temperatures by next weekend.

Either way, if this scenario even comes close to playing out, it will likely mean our coolest air so far this fall.

KatDaddy · #42 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 6:50 am

Another major rain/severe event next week????

From this mornings Hou-Gal AFD:

FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO TX AND
LA...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A WET WEEK AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HOOK UP WITH AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WED/THU/FRI. STRONG JET DYNAMICS
COME INTO PLAY WITH A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND AN IMPRESSIVE
STRONG FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AM ANTICIPATING A WET
LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DETAILS ARE STILL FUZZY BUT THE
PATTERN LOOKS VERY CONDUCIVE TO SOME STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING LESSER THREAT OF STRONG STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FALLING IN LINE BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WHEN IT FINALLY EJECTS OUT A STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED IT
COULD GET INTERESTING.

KatDaddy · #43 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 7:02 am

Things could really get interesting or more so very serious with the saturated grounds. Another slug of moisture to throw into the the mix next week. E PAC TD 5 soon to be a TS and eventually a hurricane.

120-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY
PURPOSES DUE TO POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS POSITION IS AN
ESTIMATE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WELL BEHIND NEAR THE MEXICAN
COAST DUE TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS ENHANCING THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE
AREAS BY DAY 5...AND PERHAPS BEYOND.

#44 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 7:34 am

Ruh-roh, Shaggy! :eek:

Yankeegirl · #45 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 8:11 am

Well I bought my airsow tickets this moring,.. Looks like the rain might hold off till later on this afternoon... i hope!! its overcast now, but i am hoping that burns off soon...

KatDaddy · #46 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 9:55 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
741 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
741 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR COULD BE
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH FOUR...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COOL AND DRY SPELL SHOULD PREVAIL. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RICH GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE JET STREAM OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. LATER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE DETAILS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK EVENT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

Extremeweatherguy · #47 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 9:56 am

6Z GFS continues the trend of bringing a very strong front through the area next weekend:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^According to this run, the front should have cleared us by Friday morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Saturday morning looks cold^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Sunday looks to be a very cold day if this played out. The 0C 850mb line reaches all the way past Houston into the Gulf. If we manage to get good radiational cooling that night...it could mean an early frost.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^The cold air begins to back off on Monday, but it would still be chilly.^^

This trend has now been seen in the last 4 runs of the GFS...

BTW, JB also agrees that a very strong trough will dip down into the plains during that period.

KatDaddy · #48 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:44 am

Hey EWG is Joe B talking about another major severe/flood even for TX and LA next week. The TX forecast discussion are talking about it.

Extremeweatherguy · #49 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 11:21 am

KatDaddy wrote:Hey EWG is Joe B talking about another major severe/flood even for TX and LA next week. The TX forecast discussion are talking about it.

yes, he has mentioned that another big rain event could be in the works.

Extremeweatherguy · #50 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 11:45 am

Here is the NWS forecast for today through Monday. Looks like some beautiful weather is ahead:

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 76. East wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 58. Calm wind becoming north between 10 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Sunday: Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 68. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 72. East wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.

Ptarmigan · #51 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 11:57 am

KatDaddy wrote:HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
741 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
741 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR COULD BE
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH FOUR...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COOL AND DRY SPELL SHOULD PREVAIL. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RICH GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE JET STREAM OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. LATER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE DETAILS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK EVENT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

AAARRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!! Not again! :grr:

If that's the case, this will be the wettest October ever on record. :eek:

Come to think of it, there was a Hurricane Paul that did affect Texas by dmping heavy rain on West Texas in 1982.

Extremeweatherguy · #52 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 12:19 pm

Accuweather has lowered tomorrow night's forecasted low for Spring, TX down to 44F!!!

Johnny · #53 Postby **Johnny** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 12:23 pm

That is a great forecast for tomorrow. I guess I'm gonna have to make a run to my ranch and do a little bit of hunting tomorrow!

Extremeweatherguy · #54 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 3:21 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TODAY
HAS REMAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX COAST AND
SOUTHWEST LA COAST CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY COLLIDE
WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
CANADIAN AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTO EAST TX TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST TX BEHIND THE FRONT. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL TX. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TX AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT
OF THE RETURN FLOW AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TUES
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS
MORNING AS A SIGNIFICANT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TX THURS AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR
INTO EAST TX FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEKEND
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. 32
&&

Forecast lows have been dropped to 49F for IAH tomorrow night, meaning mid 40s for Hooks and Spring and lower 40s in Conroe are likely.

Extremeweatherguy · #55 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 3:32 pm

Here is the NEW afternoon NWS forecast for northern Harris county:

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Calm wind becoming north between 10 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 69. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 47. North wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

hurrican19 · #56 Postby **hurrican19** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 4:15 pm

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
332 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH SATURATED GROUNDS...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-220900-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.A.0001.061021T2032Z-061022T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
332 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...
RAPIDES AND ST. LANDRY IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...IBERIA...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY AND UPPER ST. MARTIN
IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND VERMILION IN WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...VERNON IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* AN AVERAGE OF 1 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS.
WITH SATURATED GROUNDS...ALONG WITH SWOLLEN RIVERS...CREEKS AND
BAYOUS...THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY OVERWHELM LOCAL
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

* STREETS AND LOW LYING URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT DRAIN
OFF INTO RIVERS AND BAYOUS THAT ARE ALREADY AT HIGH
LEVELS...WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

RUA

Miztiki · #57 Postby **Miztiki** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 4:36 pm

We have 3 acres and most of it was under water from the storms that came through earlier this week. We still have standing water in the back yard.

The fire ants have been displaced and are EVERYWHERE. I can't even go outside. I can't spread the pellets around or treat the mounds with rain on the way either (and we did just have a quick shower).

The mosquitoes have apparently hatched too. What a dangerous and scary place my yard has become this week.

Extremeweatherguy · #58 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 4:36 pm

The windshift of the coldfront seems to be just south of Dallas right now, with the main blast of cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints just now passing Wichita Falls. Frost and freeze advisories are out for the Panhandle of Texas tonight, and they may be needed in parts of northern Texas tomorrow night.

It is also quite windy along and behind the front. Gusts to 35-45mph have occured to our north. The winds will likely not be as strong here, but a few gusts in the 25-35mph range seem likely as the front passes by.

PTrackerLA · #59 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 4:54 pm

Receiving some very heavy rain in Lafayette right now. Fortunately we can take it as we've only had about 3" over the past week and also still have a 12" rainfall deficit for the year. However areas north and east of here received alot more rain so flooding could become an issue. Flash flood watch is in effect for tomorrow so we'll see what happens.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Extremeweatherguy · #60 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:24 pm

Wichita Falls has fallen from 70F to 58F with very strong winds over the last 3 hours, and the edge of the "cold push" has now just reached Fort Worth. Their dewpoints in Fort Worth have fallen from 51F to 49F and their current temp. of 73F will likely dive bomb over the next few hours. This "cold push" will likely reach SE Texas late this evening and to the coast overnight with most areas north of I-10 awaking to temps. only in the lower 50s with a strong northerly breeze by tomorrow morning.

BTW, the 18Z GFS shows a 1025mb high right over the state Monday morning...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042s.gif

and right over SE Texas Monday afternoon...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

It then continues to show a strong cold blast for the region next weekend (this is the 6th model run of the GFS to show this):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
^^Fri. morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^Fri. Afternoon^^

SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

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