Former TC Xavier in S Pac

[Chacor]

This one looks good.



New Invest near 10 South 169 East (that's Fiji's area), but nothing yet from RSMC Nadi.

[P.K.]

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and
120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Oct 200800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Oct 210600 UTC.

CONVERGENCE CZ1 09S 160E 10S 170E 12S 180 14S 170W TO FRONT F1 18S
163W 20S 160W 25S 155W. CZ1 SLOW MOVING AND F1 MOVING SOUTHEAST 05
KNOTS. POOR VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240
MILES OF CZ1 AND WITHIN 200 MILES EAST OF F1.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 03S 160E 02S 170E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY
IN SQUALLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CZ2.

TROUGH T1 05S 160E 06S 170E 06S 180 04S 172W SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180
MILES OF T1.

WEAK TROUGH T2 07S 157W 15S 159W 20S 160W MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 05
KNOTS. POOR VISIBILITY IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150 MILES OF T2.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF CZ1 AND
F1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. A MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SWELL.

OVER BROAD AREA EAST OF 150W A MODERATE EASTERLY SWELL. AREA OF
MODERATE SWELLS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.

[Chacor]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0S 169.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. A 200601Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
FORMING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 200636Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
REVEALS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SHARPLY
TURNING, CONVERGENT FLOW EAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED
ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATING CENTER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[P.K.]

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Oct 202000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING NIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Oct 211800 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1005HPA] NEAR 9.7S 167.8E SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 MILES
OF TD. CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF TD.

CONVERGENCE CZ1 10S 166E 12S 175E 12S 175W 14S 165W 19S 157W SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240
MILES OF CZ1.

FRONT F1 18S 163W 19S 158W 25S 153W MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POOR
VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 MILES EAST
OF F1.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 FROM TD TO 09S 175E 05S 175W EQT 166W SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CZ2.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ3 01S 160E 02S 165E 04S 169E 08S 170E 10S 169E
SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
240 MILES OF CZ3.

TROUGH T1 07S 160E TO TD SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 MILES OF T1.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF T1, CZ1
AND F1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. A MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

OVER BROAD AREA EAST OF 140W A MODERATE EASTERLY SWELL. AREA OF
MODERATE SWELLS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Oct 20/2255 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.9S 167.8E AT
202100 UTC SLOW MOVING. ORGANISATION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. A GOOD TRADE
WIND FLOW PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
25 KNOTS. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA, BUT DO NOT DEVELOP IT FURTHER. POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW.

[P.K.]

The season is yet to start but the first TD has now formed.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Oct 21/2214 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F [1004HPA] NEAR 10.9S 168.9E AT 222100 UTC
MOVING SLOW MOVING. POSITON FAIR BASED ON MTSAT/GMS-5 IR/VIS
ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATION. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. A GOOD TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS [AVN/ECMWF/UKGC/GASPS]
MAINTAIN THE 01F IN THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS FAIR TO MODERATE.

[RattleMan]

TCFA by JTWC:

WTPS21 PGTW 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 212151Z OCT 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 167.9E TO 13.5S 166.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 167.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.0S 167.9E, APPROXIMATELY
665 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER EVIDENT IN A 211930Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON IMPROVED LOWER LEVEL ORGANIZATION, INCREASING CONVECTION,
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 222200Z.//

[cycloneye]

P.K,The F stands for Fiji Region right?

Chacor,I changed the title of thread.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow isn't this storm a whole month before the season even starts?


That's impressive, gonna be an active season over there I think.

[JonathanBelles]

who's got responsibility.

[P.K.]

Yes Luis, in the same way the North Atlantic is L.

The season starts on the 1st November so it is a little early, however RSMC Nadi did say in their September ENSO update an early or even pre season TC was possible.

SW Pacific north of 25S is RSMC Nadi's (Fiji) AOR.

[JonathanBelles]

Thanks P.K. can somebody post a link to the Fiji AOR?

[P.K.]

http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

[JonathanBelles]

thanks

[HURAKAN]

El Niño years in the Southern Hemisphere are fun for TC trackers like me!!!

Example, look at the 96-97 season!!!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... index.html

[JonathanBelles]

so el nino in the S. Pacific is like an atlantic 2005?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can only hope.

[Alacane2]

Tropical Cyclone Xavier

WTPS01 NFFN 220000
GALE Warning 005 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0128 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [995hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South
167.8 East at 220000 UTC. Position fair.
Repeat position 11.0S 167.8E at 220000 UTC.
Cyclone moving southsoutheast 2 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to
45 knots in the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 11.3S 168.0E at 221200 UTC
and near 11.6S 168.3E at 230000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 004.

[JonathanBelles]

that would explain the disappearance by NRL.

[Chacor]

NRL all storms has 01P.NONAME.

Well, an early start to the season!