Former TC Xavier in S Pac

[wxmann_91]

An eye is forming. LOL...best looking invest I've ever seen (Still classified as such on the FNMOC site).

[JonathanBelles]

when does the next advisory come out?

[Chacor]

I assume 6-hourly, so 0600 UTC.

[JonathanBelles]

why is it not on wonderground?
can sombody give me 5 day?

[HurricaneBill]

Hopefully, it won't end up like another October SPAC storm: Cyclone Bebe in 1972.

[Chacor]

WTPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212151Z OCT 06//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 167.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 167.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 11.6S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.3S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.9S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.3S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 167.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH STORM INTEN-
SITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MORE SLOWLY AS INCREASING SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERTURES BEGIN TO IMPACT DEVELOPMENT.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
AN APPROACHING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA IN THE
NEAR TERM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 212151Z OCT 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 212200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//

NNNN

[JonathanBelles]

JTWC has it shooting up to 100kts

[Chacor]

RSMC Nadi confirms explosive development/rapid deepening, with SSTS of near 30°C.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 22/0259 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [995hPa] centre was located near 11.0
South 167.8 East at 220000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS/EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving
southsoutheast 02 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 35 knots, increasing to 45 knots in the
next 12 hours.

Xavier has undergone explosive development in the last 12 hours.
Organisation is steadily improving and convection about central area
is increasing and cooling past 6 hours. Outflow good in all
quadrants. Xavier is located in the vicinity of the 250 hPa ridge in
a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap
of .95 yields DT=3.5, PT at 3.5 and MET AT 3.0. Due to Dvorak
constraints, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is
expected to be steered southwest by developing mid-level ridge to the
east. Global models generally agree on a southwest track with further
intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 221200 UTC near 11.3S 168.0E mov SSE 02kt with 45kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 230000 UTC near 11.6S 168.3E mov SE 02kt with 55kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 12.0S 168.0E mov SW 03kt with 60kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 12.5S 167.4E mov SW 05kt with 65kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER
will be issued around 220800 UTC.

[JonathanBelles]

the link says: NO CURRENT EDITION OF THIS PRODUCT AVAILABLE...

[Chacor]

the link says: NO CURRENT EDITION OF THIS PRODUCT AVAILABLE...

Weird, works for me... in both Firefox and Safari...

[MiamiensisWx]

Weird, works for me... in both Firefox and Safari...

Works for me in Internet Explorer as well. It might be a software or server error, fact789.

[AussieMark]

El Niño years in the Southern Hemisphere are fun for TC trackers like me!!!

Example, look at the 96-97 season!!!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... index.html

for south pacific El Nino is usually quieter seasons for RSMC Brisbane, and more active seasons for RSMC Nadi

[P.K.]

Sometimes you need to force a refresh, press Ctrl and F5 at the same time (FF only).

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 22/0742 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [985hPa] centre was located near 11.0
South 167.2 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving west 06
knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at
about 50 knots, increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours.

Organisation continues to steadily improve with outflow good in all
quadrants. Xavier is located in the vicinity of the 250 hPa ridge in
a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern
yielding DT of 3.5. MET and PT agree with T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST
around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to steer westwards into
decreasing environmental shear in response to a developing mid-level
ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or
southwest track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 221800 UTC near 11.5S 166.4E mov WSW 05kt with 55kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.6S 165.5E mov W 05kt with 65kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.1S 164.7E mov WSW 05kt with 70kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.1S 163.8E mov W 05kt with 75kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER
will be issued around 221400 UTC.

[Chacor]

An eye is indeed now evident.



SSD:
22/0833 UTC 11.1S 167.0E T3.5/3.5 XAVIER -- South Pacific Ocean

JTWC:
WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 11.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 167.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.3S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.7S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.0S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.6S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 167.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM
HAS ONLY WEAKLY INTENSIFIED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP CONVEC-
TION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH MULTIPLE CELLS DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN
PERIPHERY. TC 01P REMAINS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST. TC 01P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS
A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS APPROACHING OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.//

Nadi:
Organisation improved past 6 hours with indications of a developing
eye. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in a low-shear
environment. Dvorak analysis based on convection wrap of 1.0 on log10
spiral yielding DT of 3.5. MET =4.5 and PT=4.0, thus
T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24hrs.

[Chacor]

Unofficial BOM analysis for the Solomon Islands:

777
WWPS22 ABRF 221324
IDQ20016
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY
Issued at 1316 UTC on 22/10/06
Special Advisory Number 4

Tropical Cyclone Xavier

At 221233 UTC Tropical Cyclone Xavier was located at :

Latitude: 10.9 S
Longitude: 167.4 E

Position accuracy - good. The cyclone is near stationary and has rapidly
intensifyied. An eye has been evident for 3-4 hours.

Central pressure 970 hPa.

Mean maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre, with gusts to 100 knots. Mean
maximum winds increasing to 90 knots, gusting to 125 knots within 24 hours.

Expect hurricane force winds [over 63 knots] out 20 miles from the centre.
Storm force winds [ 48 to 63 knots] 50 miles from the centre, and gales [winds
over 33 knots] out to 120 miles from the centre.

Over the next 24-36 hours: Expect hurricane to storm force winds, prolonged
torrential rain and very large swells through the Santa Cruz islands. Gale
force winds and very heavy rainfall in northern Vanuatu and extending towards
the eastern Solomon Islands.

Forecast position at 230000 UTC near:
Latitude: 11.3 S
Longitude: 166.0 E

This cyclone is expected to continue intensification throughout the night, and
will intensify more slowly during the coming day. Cyclone Xavier should
continue moving slowly west to be near 12S 165E by 240000 UTC. The cyclone may
then weaken as it continues moving slowly west.

The next Special Advisory will be issued before 221800 UTC.

[JonathanBelles]

link chacor?

[Chacor]

JTWC

RSMC Nadi

Not sure where you can find the latest version of WWPS22 ABRF. I got that advisory in an email.

[JonathanBelles]

ok thanks chacor. does anyonbe have a tracking map for the southern hemisphere?

[HURAKAN]

http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/tc1995sh.htm

The last time the season started with a SPAC storm was in 1994.

[CycloneCarl]

ok thanks chacor. does anyonbe have a tracking map for the southern hemisphere?

Here's one with an 0.1 degree grid you can plot positions on: Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map for Vanuatu