NHC wrote:THE
RELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS
It's a nice looking cyclone on sat images. RI is not out of the question but I'd peg that chance at 15%-18%.
Tropical Depression Paul Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
I think we should watch this thing. Paul is already at 45 knots and just became a TD early this morning. The GFDL model like the discussion said is picking up on a major hurricane:
It's a nice looking cyclone on sat images. RI is not out of the question but I'd peg that chance at 15%-18%.
It's a nice looking cyclone on sat images. RI is not out of the question but I'd peg that chance at 15%-18%.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
708
WTPZ42 KNHC 220231
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
PAUL IS A PARTLY SHEARED SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF
RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES INDICATING THE CENTER IS JUST EAST OF THE
MAIN CONVECTION AND UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN OUTFLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR MAY BE DECREASING. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6. OTHER THAN
THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST REASONING
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N124W. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HR
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A MOTION TOWARD
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS
FARTHER TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PAUL SHEARING APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
MOVING TO BAJA AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING CLOSER TO THE GFDL
TRACK. ON THE PREMISE THAT THE STORM WILL NOT SHEAR APART...THE
FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST PAUL TO BE IN A LIGHT-MODERATE
SHEARING ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECASTING PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STOP
INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING
AFTER 48 HR...CALLING FOR PAUL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND KEEP PAUL A 65-KT
HURRICANE FROM 48 HR UNTIL LANDFALL.
THE WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.9N 108.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.1N 109.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.8N 110.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.9N 110.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 29.0N 105.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ42 KNHC 220231
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
PAUL IS A PARTLY SHEARED SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF
RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES INDICATING THE CENTER IS JUST EAST OF THE
MAIN CONVECTION AND UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN OUTFLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR MAY BE DECREASING. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6. OTHER THAN
THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST REASONING
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N124W. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HR
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A MOTION TOWARD
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS
FARTHER TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PAUL SHEARING APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
MOVING TO BAJA AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING CLOSER TO THE GFDL
TRACK. ON THE PREMISE THAT THE STORM WILL NOT SHEAR APART...THE
FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST PAUL TO BE IN A LIGHT-MODERATE
SHEARING ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECASTING PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STOP
INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING
AFTER 48 HR...CALLING FOR PAUL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND KEEP PAUL A 65-KT
HURRICANE FROM 48 HR UNTIL LANDFALL.
THE WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.9N 108.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.1N 109.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.8N 110.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.9N 110.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 29.0N 105.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ42 KNHC 220841
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
PAUL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE STRENGTHENED...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CIRRUS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS A HARD EDGE...INDICATING SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR...AND OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS ALREADY STARTING TO BECOME
RESTRICTED AND DEFLECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE UPPER-LOW
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
DOWN TO T2.5 SINCE 00Z...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION A SHADE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 270/7. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE LARGE
UPPER-LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT THE TRACK NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...WITH THE DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE FOCUSING ON A TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT
WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING THAT ARE RELATED TO HOW PAUL
RESPONDS TO THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AFTER
RECURVATURE. THE GFDL RESISTS THE SHEAR...MAKING PAUL A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND TAKING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A SLOWER
MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS DONE VERY WELL THIS YEAR AT
LONGER RANGES...DISSIPATES PAUL AND MEANDERS THE REMNANTS OFFSHORE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WELL SLOWER THAN THE GFDL BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER ENVIROMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR
WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN A DAY OR SO AND THE WATER IS PLENTY WARM.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS PAUL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TOO STRONG IN LIGHT OF
THE FORECAST SHEAR AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT MIGHT SUGGEST
THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE EITHER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.8N 108.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.1N 111.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
PAUL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE STRENGTHENED...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CIRRUS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS A HARD EDGE...INDICATING SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR...AND OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS ALREADY STARTING TO BECOME
RESTRICTED AND DEFLECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE UPPER-LOW
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
DOWN TO T2.5 SINCE 00Z...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION A SHADE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 270/7. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE LARGE
UPPER-LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT THE TRACK NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...WITH THE DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE FOCUSING ON A TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT
WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING THAT ARE RELATED TO HOW PAUL
RESPONDS TO THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AFTER
RECURVATURE. THE GFDL RESISTS THE SHEAR...MAKING PAUL A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND TAKING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A SLOWER
MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS DONE VERY WELL THIS YEAR AT
LONGER RANGES...DISSIPATES PAUL AND MEANDERS THE REMNANTS OFFSHORE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WELL SLOWER THAN THE GFDL BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER ENVIROMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR
WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN A DAY OR SO AND THE WATER IS PLENTY WARM.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS PAUL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TOO STRONG IN LIGHT OF
THE FORECAST SHEAR AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT MIGHT SUGGEST
THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE EITHER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.8N 108.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.1N 111.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM PAUL (EP172006) ON 20061022 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061022 1200 061023 0000 061023 1200 061024 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 109.0W 16.8N 110.7W 18.2N 111.9W 20.6N 112.8W
BAMM 15.9N 109.0W 16.7N 110.7W 17.7N 112.0W 19.4N 113.0W
LBAR 15.9N 109.0W 16.7N 110.1W 18.2N 111.0W 20.1N 111.4W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061024 1200 061025 1200 061026 1200 061027 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 112.6W 32.2N 104.6W 36.3N 74.2W 37.5N 36.4W
BAMM 22.2N 113.0W 28.9N 107.9W 34.4N 85.9W 36.8N 57.5W
LBAR 22.2N 110.9W 28.8N 107.1W 34.6N 92.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 52KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 54KTS 37KTS 28KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 109.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 107.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 106.6W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D
No changes in intensity in this 12:00z update of the models,still at 45kts.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061022 1200 061023 0000 061023 1200 061024 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 109.0W 16.8N 110.7W 18.2N 111.9W 20.6N 112.8W
BAMM 15.9N 109.0W 16.7N 110.7W 17.7N 112.0W 19.4N 113.0W
LBAR 15.9N 109.0W 16.7N 110.1W 18.2N 111.0W 20.1N 111.4W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 45KTS 46KTS 48KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061024 1200 061025 1200 061026 1200 061027 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 112.6W 32.2N 104.6W 36.3N 74.2W 37.5N 36.4W
BAMM 22.2N 113.0W 28.9N 107.9W 34.4N 85.9W 36.8N 57.5W
LBAR 22.2N 110.9W 28.8N 107.1W 34.6N 92.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 52KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 54KTS 37KTS 28KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 109.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 107.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 106.6W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D
No changes in intensity in this 12:00z update of the models,still at 45kts.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2876
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN PAUL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 3.0 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. WHILE PAUL IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING. BEYOND 36 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR INTENSITY
FORECASTS NO LONGER SHOWING PAUL BECOMING A HURRICANE.
CONVERSELY...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS
OF THE GFDL FIELDS SHOW THAT THE MODEL IS NOT RESPONDING TO THE
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IS THUS CONSIDERED TOO ROBUST IN ITS INTENSITY
FORECAST. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW PAUL BECOMING
A MINIMAL HURRICANE OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND CONTINUITY.
BY 72 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW.
PAUL APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...OR 300/6...AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES A LITTLE WITH THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA INTO
MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL
VORTEX. THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SINCE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36
HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL. THIS RESULTS
IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.3N 109.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 22.2N 110.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
WTPZ42 KNHC 221432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN PAUL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 3.0 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. WHILE PAUL IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING. BEYOND 36 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR INTENSITY
FORECASTS NO LONGER SHOWING PAUL BECOMING A HURRICANE.
CONVERSELY...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS
OF THE GFDL FIELDS SHOW THAT THE MODEL IS NOT RESPONDING TO THE
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IS THUS CONSIDERED TOO ROBUST IN ITS INTENSITY
FORECAST. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW PAUL BECOMING
A MINIMAL HURRICANE OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND CONTINUITY.
BY 72 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW.
PAUL APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...OR 300/6...AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES A LITTLE WITH THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA INTO
MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE
RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL
VORTEX. THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SINCE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36
HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL. THIS RESULTS
IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.3N 109.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 22.2N 110.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM PAUL
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0117E PAUL
C. 23/1200Z
D. 19.0N 111.0W
E. 23/1630Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 70
2. SUCCEEDIND DAY OUTLOOK: FIX PAUL NEAR 21.0N 110.5W
AT 24/1800Z.
JWP
Recon for tommorow afternoon.
1. TROPICAL STORM PAUL
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0117E PAUL
C. 23/1200Z
D. 19.0N 111.0W
E. 23/1630Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 70
2. SUCCEEDIND DAY OUTLOOK: FIX PAUL NEAR 21.0N 110.5W
AT 24/1800Z.
JWP
Recon for tommorow afternoon.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM PAUL (EP172006) ON 20061022 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061022 1800 061023 0600 061023 1800 061024 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 110.1W 17.1N 111.6W 18.7N 112.7W 21.6N 112.8W
BAMM 16.1N 110.1W 16.9N 111.7W 18.0N 112.9W 20.1N 113.3W
LBAR 16.1N 110.1W 17.2N 111.0W 18.8N 111.7W 20.9N 111.9W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 69KTS 71KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 69KTS 71KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061024 1800 061025 1800 061026 1800 061027 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 111.4W 33.5N 97.1W 33.4N 65.6W 36.9N 33.7W
BAMM 23.1N 112.7W 29.7N 105.1W 33.0N 81.2W 36.0N 54.6W
LBAR 23.6N 111.2W 30.7N 106.0W 34.0N 89.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 71KTS 59KTS 23KTS 0KTS
DSHP 71KTS 41KTS 28KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 110.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 108.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 107.1W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM
The 18:00z models increase the intensity up to 55kts.AnnularCane,yes it looks much better this afternoon.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061022 1800 061023 0600 061023 1800 061024 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 110.1W 17.1N 111.6W 18.7N 112.7W 21.6N 112.8W
BAMM 16.1N 110.1W 16.9N 111.7W 18.0N 112.9W 20.1N 113.3W
LBAR 16.1N 110.1W 17.2N 111.0W 18.8N 111.7W 20.9N 111.9W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 69KTS 71KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 69KTS 71KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061024 1800 061025 1800 061026 1800 061027 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 111.4W 33.5N 97.1W 33.4N 65.6W 36.9N 33.7W
BAMM 23.1N 112.7W 29.7N 105.1W 33.0N 81.2W 36.0N 54.6W
LBAR 23.6N 111.2W 30.7N 106.0W 34.0N 89.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 71KTS 59KTS 23KTS 0KTS
DSHP 71KTS 41KTS 28KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 110.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 108.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 107.1W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM
The 18:00z models increase the intensity up to 55kts.AnnularCane,yes it looks much better this afternoon.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
I'm glad the 18:00z models have increased the intensity up to 55 knots. I noticed it was a lot better organized then it's ever been. It's strengthening quicker then was forecast. It seems to be wrapping around so lets see if it can rapidly strengthen. Hopefully recon will give us great data on Paul if he pulls a surprise.
0 likes
-
Epsilon_Fan
- Category 1
- Posts: 353
- Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2006 1:03 pm
- Location: Charleston, SC
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
031
WTPZ42 KNHC 222027
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PAUL IS INTENSIFYING WITH
INDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER VERY
WARM WATERS. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE
GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS PAUL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND IS NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MODELS THROUGH 36
HOURS...BUT IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE THEREAFTER BASED ON LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN WITH
MAINLAND MEXICO AT 72 HOURS.
PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 290/7. DESPITE THE
PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY...ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW PAUL SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY CLIPPING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL
VORTEX. THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE
CYCLONE MORE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.
THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.9N 110.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.4N 111.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W 60 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1800Z 25.5N 107.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
WTPZ42 KNHC 222027
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PAUL IS INTENSIFYING WITH
INDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER VERY
WARM WATERS. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE
GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS PAUL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND IS NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MODELS THROUGH 36
HOURS...BUT IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE THEREAFTER BASED ON LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN WITH
MAINLAND MEXICO AT 72 HOURS.
PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 290/7. DESPITE THE
PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY...ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW PAUL SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO
THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY CLIPPING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL
VORTEX. THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE
CYCLONE MORE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.
THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.9N 110.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.4N 111.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W 60 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1800Z 25.5N 107.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2876
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
-
HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
HURRICANE PAUL (EP172006) ON 20061023 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061023 0000 061023 1200 061024 0000 061024 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 110.9W 17.2N 112.2W 19.3N 112.8W 22.7N 112.1W
BAMM 16.0N 110.9W 16.9N 112.4W 18.3N 113.4W 20.6N 113.6W
LBAR 16.0N 110.9W 17.0N 111.7W 18.6N 112.1W 20.8N 112.0W
SHIP 75KTS 89KTS 92KTS 89KTS
DSHP 75KTS 89KTS 92KTS 89KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061025 0000 061026 0000 061027 0000 061028 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 109.6W 34.0N 91.0W 32.3N 62.0W 32.4N 37.0W
BAMM 23.7N 112.7W 29.5N 103.3W 32.8N 82.2W 34.9N 59.8W
LBAR 23.6N 111.0W 30.0N 105.3W 34.2N 88.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 86KTS 67KTS 38KTS 0KTS
DSHP 86KTS 45KTS 29KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 110.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 109.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 107.8W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM
Now a hurricane at 75kts.But as always,storm2k waits for the official advisory to then change a title of a thread.However it is pretty obvious that it's a hurricane now.
23/0000 UTC 15.9N 110.9W T4.5/4.5 PAUL -- East Pacific Ocean
And SSD dvorak confirms it's now a hurricane.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061023 0000 061023 1200 061024 0000 061024 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 110.9W 17.2N 112.2W 19.3N 112.8W 22.7N 112.1W
BAMM 16.0N 110.9W 16.9N 112.4W 18.3N 113.4W 20.6N 113.6W
LBAR 16.0N 110.9W 17.0N 111.7W 18.6N 112.1W 20.8N 112.0W
SHIP 75KTS 89KTS 92KTS 89KTS
DSHP 75KTS 89KTS 92KTS 89KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061025 0000 061026 0000 061027 0000 061028 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 109.6W 34.0N 91.0W 32.3N 62.0W 32.4N 37.0W
BAMM 23.7N 112.7W 29.5N 103.3W 32.8N 82.2W 34.9N 59.8W
LBAR 23.6N 111.0W 30.0N 105.3W 34.2N 88.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 86KTS 67KTS 38KTS 0KTS
DSHP 86KTS 45KTS 29KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 110.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 109.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 107.8W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM
Now a hurricane at 75kts.But as always,storm2k waits for the official advisory to then change a title of a thread.However it is pretty obvious that it's a hurricane now.
23/0000 UTC 15.9N 110.9W T4.5/4.5 PAUL -- East Pacific Ocean
And SSD dvorak confirms it's now a hurricane.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Oct 22, 2006 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
fact789 wrote:does that make it a rapid development.
It has deppened rapidly in terms of the pressure from the 994 mbs in the 2 PM PDT Advisory to now 979 mbs.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: alan1961, AnnularCane, CFLHurricane, dexterlabio, TomballEd, weatherSnoop, wzrgirl1 and 66 guests