Former TC Xavier in S Pac

[JonathanBelles]

cyclone carl i found this one on there:
http://www.netcomputers.com.au/cyclones ... .htm#set01

[CycloneCarl]

cyclone carl i found this one on there:
http://www.netcomputers.com.au/cyclones ... .htm#set01

Yep, that's my other site.

If you look around in both my sites you will find plenty of maps, so you should be able to find something covering just about any possible area you might want for Australia and the South Pacific during the season.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 22/1422 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [980hPa] centre was located near 10.9
South 167.3 East at 221200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving
west-southwest 04 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 55 knots, increasing to 60 knots in the
next 12 hours.

Organisation improved past 6 hours with indications of a developing
eye. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in a low-shear
environment. Dvorak analysis based on convection wrap of 1.0 on log10
spiral yielding DT of 3.5. MET =4.5 and PT=4.0, thus
T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone currently steered
west-southwest by a deep easterly flow. Global models generally agree
on a west or southwest track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 230000 UTC near 11.3S 166.4E mov WSW 05kt with 60kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 11.6S 165.9E mov WSW 04kt with 80kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 11.8S 165.1E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 12.2S 164.6E mov WSW 04kt with 100kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER
will be issued around 222000 UTC.


55 knots - 980 mb

[wxmann_91]

El Niño years in the Southern Hemisphere are fun for TC trackers like me!!!

Example, look at the 96-97 season!!!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... index.html

96-97 was a neutral year. 97-98 was the Super Nino.

[JonathanBelles]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 22/1951 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [970hPa] centre was located near 11.0
South 167.8 East at 221800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving east
southeast at about 5 knots but expected curve west or southwest.
Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 65 knots, increasing to 75 knots in the next 12
hours.

Organisation continues to improve. Recent SSM/I passes indicate tight
bands wrapping around a developing eye. Outflow good in all
quadrants. Xavier is maintained in a low-shear environment. Dvorak
analysis based on embedded centre yielding DT of 5.0. MET =4.0 and
PT=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. SST
around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift west-southwest nudged
by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree
on a west or southwest track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.5S 167.1E mov SW 05kt with 75kt
close to centre. 24hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.0S 166.6E mov SW
04kt with 80kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.3S 166.0E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 12.5S 165.4E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER
will be issued around 230200 UTC.

[HurricaneBill]

Cyclone Xavier is a very significant storm. I believe he is the first tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere to have an "X" name.

Are there any islands in his path?

[P.K.]

A few islands yes.

Special Advisory Number FOUR for Vanuatu on TC XAVIER issued from
RSMC NADI
Oct 22/2058 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [970hPa] centre was located near 11.0
South 167.8 East at 221800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving east
southeast at about 5 knots but expected curve west or southwest.
Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 65 knots, increasing to 75 knots in the next 12
hours.

Organisation continues to improve. Recent SSM/I passes indicate tight
bands wrapping around a developing eye. Outflow good in all
quadrants. Xavier is maintained in a low-shear environment. Dvorak
analysis based on embedded centre yielding DT of 5.0. MET =4.0 and
PT=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. SST
around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift west-southwest nudged
by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree
on a west or southwest track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.5S 167.1E mov SW 05kt with 75kt
close to centre. 24hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.0S 166.6E mov SW
04kt with 80kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.3S 166.0E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 12.5S 165.4E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt
close to centre.

On its current track the cyclone is expected to cause damaging gale
force winds in the next 24 to 48 hours over the Torres and Banks
Islands. If Xavier continues on a more southwest track, then northern
parts of Espiritu Santo and Maewo are likely to experience damaging
gale force winds in the next 24 to 48 hours. Expect frequent heavy
rain and squally thunderstorms. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding
including sea flooding of coastal areas of these islands.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will
be issued around 230200 UTC.

[Gorky]

Looking good!

[JonathanBelles]

link PK? what time was that special advisory issued?

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 23/0143 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [960hPa] centre was located near 11.5
South 168.0 East at 230000 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR/VIS
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south
southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest. Maximum
10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 75 knots,
increasing to 85 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Cloud filled eye has appeared in the last 6 hours with convective
bands tightly wrapped around centre. Outflow good in all quadrants.
Xavier is located in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based
on off-white eye embedded in black gives a DT of 4.5. MET =4.5 and
PT=5.0, thus T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is
expected to drift southwest nudged by a weak mid-level ridge to the
east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with
further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 12.1S 167.4E mov SW 04kt with 85kt
close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 12.5S 166.8E mov SW
04kt with 95kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 12.6S 166.2E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 13.2S 165.6E mov SW 04kt with 100kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER
will be issued around 230800 UTC.

Xavier continues to eXplode. 75 knots - 960 mb

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 23/0759 UTC 2006 UTC.

Correction to CI

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [955hPa] centre was located near 12.2
South 168.2 East at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving
south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in
the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 80 knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12
hours.

Organisation steadily improved with convective bands tightly wrapping
around centre. CLoud-filled eye still evident. Outflow good in all
quadrants. Some shear evident past 6 hours. Dvorak analysis based on
W eye embedded in W surround gives a DT of 5.0. MET and PT=5.0, thus
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving
south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but wexpected to turn
southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east
establishes. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest
track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 13.4S 168.6E mov SSE 05kt with 85kt
close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 14.0S 168.7E mov SSE
05kt with 95kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 14.5S 168.5E mov S 04kt with 100kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.9S 167.9E mov SSW 03kt with 100kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER
will be issued around 231400 UTC.

80 knots - 955 mb

[Chacor]

Scary. 1004 hPa to 955 hPa in a matter of less than two days. Interestingly enough JTWC's 03Z had it at 80kt too. BOM now agrees with 80kt as well.

[HURAKAN]

Vanuatu is going to receive the full force of the cyclone.

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

TCWC Brisbane sticking with 5.0/5.0... obviously a very dangerous system.

[P.K.]

TC ADVISORY
DTG:200610231300Z
TCAC:NFFN
TC:XAVIER
NR:07
PSN:S1230 E16830
MOV:SSE 05KT
C:950HPA
MAX WIND:80KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:S1312 E16912
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:85KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:S1336 E16906
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:90KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:S1354 E16906
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:95KT
NXT MSG:20061023/1930Z

[HURAKAN]

Is that an eye or an island? Nonetheless, it's very small!!!!

Beautiful cyclone!!!

[P.K.]

Tikopia Island I think, part of the Solomon Islands.

[whereverwx]

yay! We have an SSD floater on it.

[P.K.]

85kts, 945hPa.

Special Advisory Number EIGHT for Vanuatu on TC XAVIER issued from
RSMC NADI
Oct 23/1950 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [945hPa] centre was located near 12.7
South 168.6 East at 231800 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving
south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in
the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 85 knots, increasing to 95 knots in the next 12 to
24 hours.

Organisation generally steady with cold onvective tops surrounding
the eye. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good
in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on
B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0, thus
T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving
south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but expected to turn
southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east
establishes. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature
towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification
for at least the next 36 hours before weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 13.2S 168.9E mov S 05kt with 85kt
close to centre. 24hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 13.8S 168.7E mov SSW
03kt with 95kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.3S 167.6E mov SW 05kt with 95kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 15.1S 166.7E mov SW 08kt with 95kt
close to centre.

On its current track the cyclone may cause destructive storm force
winds or stronger during the next 24 to 36 hours over the Banks
Islands and Maewo and damaging gales over Torres islands, Espiritu
Santo, Aoba, Pentecost, Malekula and Ambrym. Expect frequent heavy
rain and squally thunderstorms. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding
including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will
be issued around 240200 UTC.

VANUATU: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.