Tropical Depression Paul Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ32 KNHC 230227
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...THREATENS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST...AND TO LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES
...745 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 475 MILES
...765 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...111.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
545
WTPZ42 KNHC 230227
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
PAUL IS DEFINITELY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.
AN EYE HAS FORMED ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AND T-NUMBERS FROM
ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75
KNOTS. PAUL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...PAUL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACH MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE.
PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS OR LESS.
A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WITHIN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THEREAFTER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND
PAUL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD
SPEED. THE GDFL IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO MAINLAND
MEXICO IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS A LITTLE BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.1N 111.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.2N 111.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 21.3N 110.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 23.5N 109.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 27.5N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...THREATENS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST...AND TO LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES
...745 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 475 MILES
...765 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...111.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
545
WTPZ42 KNHC 230227
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
PAUL IS DEFINITELY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.
AN EYE HAS FORMED ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AND T-NUMBERS FROM
ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75
KNOTS. PAUL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...PAUL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACH MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE.
PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS OR LESS.
A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WITHIN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THEREAFTER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND
PAUL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD
SPEED. THE GDFL IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO MAINLAND
MEXICO IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS A LITTLE BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.1N 111.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.2N 111.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 21.3N 110.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 23.5N 109.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 27.5N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230849
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES
...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230848
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN T4.5 AND
T5.0...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. THE EYE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SURROUNDED
BY A NARROW RING OF -70C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS. OUTFLOW IS STRONG
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT LIMITED ZONALLY.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNUSUALLY PROBLEMATIC. PAUL
WILL VERY SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INDEED THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/4. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW
HEADED FOR PAUL...AND THESE COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AS PAUL BEGINS TO RECURVE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE RIDING ALONG A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
EFFECT THIS SHEAR WILL HAVE ON THE STRUCTURE AND HENCE THE TRACK OF
PAUL. EVERY GLOBAL MODEL...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN...SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF PAUL AND LEAVES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
REMNANT TO LINGER BEHIND. AND I CAN'T BLAME THIS ON THE
INITIALIZATION...BECAUSE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EACH HAVE A VERY
WELL-DEFINED INITIAL VORTEX. ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE THE
GFDL...WHICH KEEPS PAUL AS A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE AND RACES IT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET
IS TO FAVOR THE GFDL SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS DESIGNED TO SORT OUT MODEL BIASES...ALSO
FAVORS THE GFDL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
TRADITIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SO SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. AFTER THAT...SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERTAKES THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL
STILL WANTS TO MAKE PAUL A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL BUT IF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SHEAR RIGHT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THE
SHARP SHEAR GRADIENT...A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WOULD KEEP PAUL IN A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT
COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH LONGER.
A 72 HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN ONLY SO AS NOT TO SHOW THE TRACK
ENDING ABRUPTLY OFFSHORE. I DON'T REALLY EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO
SURVIVE A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.2N 111.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 17.2N 111.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.1N 111.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 110.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.6N 108.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 104.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTPZ32 KNHC 230849
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES
...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230848
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN T4.5 AND
T5.0...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. THE EYE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SURROUNDED
BY A NARROW RING OF -70C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS. OUTFLOW IS STRONG
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT LIMITED ZONALLY.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNUSUALLY PROBLEMATIC. PAUL
WILL VERY SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INDEED THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/4. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW
HEADED FOR PAUL...AND THESE COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AS PAUL BEGINS TO RECURVE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE RIDING ALONG A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
EFFECT THIS SHEAR WILL HAVE ON THE STRUCTURE AND HENCE THE TRACK OF
PAUL. EVERY GLOBAL MODEL...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN...SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF PAUL AND LEAVES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
REMNANT TO LINGER BEHIND. AND I CAN'T BLAME THIS ON THE
INITIALIZATION...BECAUSE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EACH HAVE A VERY
WELL-DEFINED INITIAL VORTEX. ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE THE
GFDL...WHICH KEEPS PAUL AS A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE AND RACES IT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET
IS TO FAVOR THE GFDL SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS DESIGNED TO SORT OUT MODEL BIASES...ALSO
FAVORS THE GFDL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
TRADITIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SO SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. AFTER THAT...SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERTAKES THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL
STILL WANTS TO MAKE PAUL A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL BUT IF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SHEAR RIGHT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THE
SHARP SHEAR GRADIENT...A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WOULD KEEP PAUL IN A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT
COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH LONGER.
A 72 HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN ONLY SO AS NOT TO SHOW THE TRACK
ENDING ABRUPTLY OFFSHORE. I DON'T REALLY EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO
SURVIVE A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.2N 111.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 17.2N 111.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.1N 111.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 110.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.6N 108.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 104.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ32 KNHC 231150
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
500 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES
...645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
500 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES
...645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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- Posts: 146119
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HURRICANE PAUL (EP172006) ON 20061023 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061023 1200 061024 0000 061024 1200 061025 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 111.4W 18.1N 112.3W 20.8N 112.1W 24.7N 110.6W
BAMM 16.3N 111.4W 17.7N 112.8W 19.5N 113.5W 22.0N 113.5W
LBAR 16.3N 111.4W 17.5N 111.9W 19.4N 111.9W 21.8N 111.4W
SHIP 90KTS 93KTS 88KTS 80KTS
DSHP 90KTS 93KTS 88KTS 80KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061025 1200 061026 1200 061027 1200 061028 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.9N 105.7W 34.1N 82.1W 31.4N 58.3W 29.8N 49.9W
BAMM 25.0N 112.2W 28.1N 104.2W 26.8N 94.1W 25.4N 84.6W
LBAR 24.8N 109.9W 30.0N 101.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 71KTS 41KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 59KTS 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 111.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 110.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 109.4W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM
Intensity up to 90kts at the 12:00z update of the models.Let's see what recon finds this afternoon in terms of intensity.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061023 1200 061024 0000 061024 1200 061025 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 111.4W 18.1N 112.3W 20.8N 112.1W 24.7N 110.6W
BAMM 16.3N 111.4W 17.7N 112.8W 19.5N 113.5W 22.0N 113.5W
LBAR 16.3N 111.4W 17.5N 111.9W 19.4N 111.9W 21.8N 111.4W
SHIP 90KTS 93KTS 88KTS 80KTS
DSHP 90KTS 93KTS 88KTS 80KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061025 1200 061026 1200 061027 1200 061028 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.9N 105.7W 34.1N 82.1W 31.4N 58.3W 29.8N 49.9W
BAMM 25.0N 112.2W 28.1N 104.2W 26.8N 94.1W 25.4N 84.6W
LBAR 24.8N 109.9W 30.0N 101.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 71KTS 41KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 59KTS 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 111.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 110.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 109.4W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM
Intensity up to 90kts at the 12:00z update of the models.Let's see what recon finds this afternoon in terms of intensity.
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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW
DISPLAYS A DISTINCT EYE WITH VERY COLD SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0...OR 90
KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 95 KT
BASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.
THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE PAUL WILL SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/4. BEYOND 12 HOURS...PAUL
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE
WITH ACCELERATING CYCLONES...ANTICIPATING FORWARD SPEED IS TRICKY.
THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS
THE CYCLONE REACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 36 HOUR...AND MAINLAND MEXICO
WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SUFFER
FROM AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK INITIAL VORTEX WHICH RESULTS IN A MUCH
SLOWER TRACK. EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL VORTEX SHOW ABRUPT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
2 DAYS RESULTING IN A DECELERATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFDL AND THE SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORECAST THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 72 HOUR
POINT IS SHOWN SINCE THE 48 HOUR POINT IS NOT QUITE INLAND.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD SURVIVE
A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...PAUL SHOULD BEGIN ENCOUNTERING INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWS THAT DRY AIR ALREADY FLANKS THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS COULD PROVIDE A ONE-TWO PUNCH...AND THE SHIPS
MODEL RESPONDS ACCORDINGLY BY SHOWING WEAKENING. HAVING SAID
THAT...DIAGNOSING SHEAR IN SUCH A COMPLEX DYNAMICAL PATTERN IS
DIFFICULT. INDEED...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINES TO SHOW MUCH LESS
SHEAR RESULTING IN PAUL REMAINING AN INTENSE HURRICANE UNTIL
NEARING BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE INCREASING
SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE WEAKENING UP
UNTIL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. ONCE INLAND...MORE ABRUPT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 95 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.3N 111.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.3N 109.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 23.3N 107.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 27.0N 104.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
NNNN
Expected to become a major hurricane.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW
DISPLAYS A DISTINCT EYE WITH VERY COLD SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0...OR 90
KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 95 KT
BASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.
THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE PAUL WILL SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/4. BEYOND 12 HOURS...PAUL
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE
WITH ACCELERATING CYCLONES...ANTICIPATING FORWARD SPEED IS TRICKY.
THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS
THE CYCLONE REACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 36 HOUR...AND MAINLAND MEXICO
WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SUFFER
FROM AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK INITIAL VORTEX WHICH RESULTS IN A MUCH
SLOWER TRACK. EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL VORTEX SHOW ABRUPT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
2 DAYS RESULTING IN A DECELERATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFDL AND THE SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORECAST THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 72 HOUR
POINT IS SHOWN SINCE THE 48 HOUR POINT IS NOT QUITE INLAND.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD SURVIVE
A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...PAUL SHOULD BEGIN ENCOUNTERING INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWS THAT DRY AIR ALREADY FLANKS THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS COULD PROVIDE A ONE-TWO PUNCH...AND THE SHIPS
MODEL RESPONDS ACCORDINGLY BY SHOWING WEAKENING. HAVING SAID
THAT...DIAGNOSING SHEAR IN SUCH A COMPLEX DYNAMICAL PATTERN IS
DIFFICULT. INDEED...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINES TO SHOW MUCH LESS
SHEAR RESULTING IN PAUL REMAINING AN INTENSE HURRICANE UNTIL
NEARING BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE INCREASING
SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE WEAKENING UP
UNTIL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. ONCE INLAND...MORE ABRUPT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 95 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.3N 111.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.3N 109.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 23.3N 107.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 27.0N 104.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
NNNN
Expected to become a major hurricane.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ32 KNHC 231438
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL STRENGTHENING AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES
...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL STRENGTHENING AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES
...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
000
URNT11 KNHC 231441
97779 14294 21263 99500 73100 25014 68702 /5760
RMK AF307 0117E PAUL OB 05
Plane is flying towards Paul.
URNT11 KNHC 231441
97779 14294 21263 99500 73100 25014 68702 /5760
RMK AF307 0117E PAUL OB 05
Plane is flying towards Paul.
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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950
WTPZ32 KNHC 231758
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES
...710 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100
MILES...155 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.7 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ32 KNHC 231758
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES
...710 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100
MILES...155 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.7 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
HURRICANE PAUL (EP172006) ON 20061023 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061023 1800 061024 0600 061024 1800 061025 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 111.5W 18.8N 111.5W 21.6N 110.5W 25.1N 108.2W
BAMM 16.7N 111.5W 18.5N 111.9W 20.5N 111.6W 23.1N 110.7W
LBAR 16.7N 111.5W 18.2N 111.4W 20.3N 111.1W 22.4N 110.3W
SHIP 85KTS 79KTS 71KTS 64KTS
DSHP 85KTS 79KTS 71KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061025 1800 061026 1800 061027 1800 061028 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 102.9W 34.0N 81.0W 35.1N 54.3W 31.6N 40.0W
BAMM 25.5N 108.3W 27.0N 100.1W 24.7N 92.2W 23.6N 85.7W
LBAR 25.1N 108.4W 29.6N 100.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 31KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 50KTS 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 111.5W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 111.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 110.1W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 70NM
$$
Weaker Paul this afternoon,85kts.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061023 1800 061024 0600 061024 1800 061025 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 111.5W 18.8N 111.5W 21.6N 110.5W 25.1N 108.2W
BAMM 16.7N 111.5W 18.5N 111.9W 20.5N 111.6W 23.1N 110.7W
LBAR 16.7N 111.5W 18.2N 111.4W 20.3N 111.1W 22.4N 110.3W
SHIP 85KTS 79KTS 71KTS 64KTS
DSHP 85KTS 79KTS 71KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061025 1800 061026 1800 061027 1800 061028 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 102.9W 34.0N 81.0W 35.1N 54.3W 31.6N 40.0W
BAMM 25.5N 108.3W 27.0N 100.1W 24.7N 92.2W 23.6N 85.7W
LBAR 25.1N 108.4W 29.6N 100.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 31KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 50KTS 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 111.5W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 111.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 110.1W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 70NM
$$
Weaker Paul this afternoon,85kts.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
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WTPZ32 KNHC 232045
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL WEAKENING...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES
...680 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
443
WTPZ42 KNHC 232045
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR
TOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE PAUL IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS INTERACTION HAS RESULTED IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. PAUL SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DEEP VORTEX
UNTIL LANDFALL. CONVERSELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER
AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND THE
SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS A HURRICANE
IS NOT A POINT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.0N 111.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.1N 110.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.2N 108.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
...PAUL WEAKENING...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES
...680 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
443
WTPZ42 KNHC 232045
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR
TOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE PAUL IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS INTERACTION HAS RESULTED IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. PAUL SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DEEP VORTEX
UNTIL LANDFALL. CONVERSELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER
AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND THE
SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS A HURRICANE
IS NOT A POINT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.0N 111.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.1N 110.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.2N 108.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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