Former TC Xavier in S Pac
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The current sat images show a pin-hole like eye on Xavier. By the looks of it, this is way stronger then 85 knots 1-min. Whenever that pin-hole eye such as the one on Xavier, that means the cyclone is very strong. Wilma was the best example for a tropical cyclone. The banding is also fantastic. My guess at strength is 120 knots 1-min winds.
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whereverwx
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whereverwx
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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P.K.
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90kts, 935hPa.
Hurricane Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/0111 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [935hPa] centre was located near 13.1 South 169.0 East
at 240000 UTC.
Position good.
Repeat position 13.1S 169.0E at 240000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve south in the
next 24 hours.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 90 knots close to centre, increasing to 95 knots in
the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the northwestern
semicircle
and within 150 miles in the southeastern semicircle.
Forecast position near 13.7S 169.4E at 241200 UTC
and near 14.3S 169.1E at 250000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.
Hurricane Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/0111 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [935hPa] centre was located near 13.1 South 169.0 East
at 240000 UTC.
Position good.
Repeat position 13.1S 169.0E at 240000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve south in the
next 24 hours.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 90 knots close to centre, increasing to 95 knots in
the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the northwestern
semicircle
and within 150 miles in the southeastern semicircle.
Forecast position near 13.7S 169.4E at 241200 UTC
and near 14.3S 169.1E at 250000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.
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AussieMark
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- Location: near Sydney, Australia
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Jim Cantore
P.K. wrote:90kts, 935hPa.
Hurricane Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/0111 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [935hPa] centre was located near 13.1 South 169.0 East
at 240000 UTC.
Position good.
Repeat position 13.1S 169.0E at 240000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve south in the
next 24 hours.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 90 knots close to centre, increasing to 95 knots in
the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the northwestern
semicircle
and within 150 miles in the southeastern semicircle.
Forecast position near 13.7S 169.4E at 241200 UTC
and near 14.3S 169.1E at 250000 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.
105mph, 935mb???? That doesn't add up at all. But then again, Neither does 125mph, 920mb.
If I was blindly guessing I'd say it was about 140mph, 935mb
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HurricaneBill
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HurricaneBill
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- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Has there ever been a system of this strength, for this early for the south Pacific.
There was one much stronger.
Cyclone Bebe formed in late October 1972 as a "twin" to Typhoon Olga. Bebe was estimated to be a Category 5.
Bebe caused lots of damage and loss of life. Some of the islands battered by Cyclone Bebe were Fiji, Tuvalu, and Kiribati.
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Category 5 wrote:
105mph, 935mb???? That doesn't add up at all. But then again, Neither does 125mph, 920mb.
If I was blindly guessing I'd say it was about 140mph, 935mb
It has to be some large hurricane to be 105 mph, 935 mb. 935 mb would be a Category 4 or small Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Katrina had 125 mph, 920 mb. Then again, if I remember, Wilma had 155 mph, 892 mb???????????
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AussieMark
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- Location: near Sydney, Australia
WTPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.2S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.0S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 169.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC
01P IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM IN A
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. TC 01P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST-
WARD THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AFTERWARDS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
STEER WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 01P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
TAU 24 DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN
JTWC/NRL says 115kt-927mbar (1-minute).
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.2S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.0S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 169.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC
01P IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM IN A
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. TC 01P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST-
WARD THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AFTERWARDS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
STEER WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 01P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
TAU 24 DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN
JTWC/NRL says 115kt-927mbar (1-minute).
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AussieMark wrote:remember the sea pressure in pacific is lower than the ATlantic tho.
North America is the only agency that use 1 min sustained winds
everywhere else uses the global standard 10 min sustained winds
I wonder why everyone uses 10 min. sustained winds and we only use 1 min. sustained winds. I wonder why the sea pressure is lower in the Pacific?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
10 minute winds don't sound that good. I find the 1 minute better because you can get a better and faster reading. I never understood why the rest of the world uses the 10 minute.
More reasoning into why I say that? Is that adding in many guest, can destroy the accuarcy of the wind measurement. How do you keep 10 minut wind measurements, from doing that.
Also the recon every line is for 1 minute, how would you get a good measurement of the strength of the storm, with 10 minute spacings? I mean small storms you would miss the wind core all together.
More reasoning into why I say that? Is that adding in many guest, can destroy the accuarcy of the wind measurement. How do you keep 10 minut wind measurements, from doing that.
Also the recon every line is for 1 minute, how would you get a good measurement of the strength of the storm, with 10 minute spacings? I mean small storms you would miss the wind core all together.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Mon Oct 23, 2006 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Brent
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:10 minute winds don't sound that good. I find the 1 minute better because you can get a better and faster reading. I never understood why the rest of the world uses the 10 minute.
More reasoning into why I say that? Is that adding in many guest, can destroy the accuarcy of the wind measurement. How do you keep 10 minut wind measurements, from doing that.
OK.
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#neversummer
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Aslkahuna
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- Contact:
Pressures in the WPAC and SWPAC are lower for a given intensity because the storms form in a lower ambient pressure. Wind sensors record the winds at intervals less than either 1 or 10 minutes but when reporting the winds, one averages the recorded winds for the reporting period and then report the peak gusts. BTW, the definition of a gust is also different for the WMO and what we report.
Steve
Steve
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