Former TC Xavier in S Pac

[wxmann_91]

This is probably weakening now, and if it isn't, it should start doing so soon. Rapid weakening should commence after crossing 15S as SST's drop rapidly.

IMO this really isn't 115 kt given how cold the eye was during its best stage. Still, this probably peaked at Cat 3.

[Chacor]

Indeed, the latest fix from BOM was 6.0/7.0/W1.0/06HRS.

[AussieMark]

Xavier will be encountering very strong shear soon

[Chacor]

Now 930 hPa/95kt from Nadi.

[P.K.]

Hurricane Warning 015 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/1305 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [930hPa] centre was located near 14.4 South 170.1 East
at 241200 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 14.4S 170.1E at 241200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast at about 08 knots but expected to gradually curve
south.
Expect sustained winds of 95 knots close to centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the northwestern
semicircle
and within 150 miles in the southeastern semicircle.

Forecast position near 16.0S 170.5E at 250000 UTC
and near 17.2S 169.9E at 251200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 014.

[AussieMark]

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [945hPa] centre was located near 15.6
South 171.7 East at 250000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots
but expected to gradually curve south. Cyclone weakening. Maximum
10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 85 knots,
decreasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours.

Xavier contiues to weaken rapidly. Outflow still good in southwest
semicircle but weakening elsewhere. Current shear has increased to
about 25 knots and Xavier is moving into increasing vertical shear.
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band wrap of 1.05 gives a DT=4.0,
MET=4.5, PT=4.0, thus T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24hrs. SST around 28C. Cyclone
steering southeast due to mid level ridge to the east. A deep
northerly wind flow building over the system is expected to curve
Xavier's path southwards. Most global models have handled the system
poorly. UKGC and TCLAPS are suggesting a turn towards the south in
the next 12 to 24 hours with gradual weakening.

[Chacor]

Now up to 975 hPa. Weakening very, very rapidly - expected to go from 60 kt to 35 kt in 12 hours or less.

[Cyclenall]

Now up to 975 hPa. Weakening very, very rapidly - expected to go from 60 kt to 35 kt in 12 hours or less.

Looks like there is nothing left of Xavier on sat images. You could say that was rapid. The most rapid weakening of all tropical cyclones is when they go over mountains like Mexico. Category 3 or 4 hurricanes making landfall on them turn to nothing in like 18-24 hours. It's funny to watch on loops. The last one to do this was Hurricane Lane in the Epac.

[Coredesat]

987 hPa now:

Code: Select all

** WTPS01 NFFN 251800     ***
GALE Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1907 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [987hPa] centre was located near 16.0 South
171.0 East at 251800 UTC. Position poor. 
Repeat position 16.0S 171.0E at 251800 UTC.
Cyclone moving southwest at about 5 knots and expected to curve west.
Cyclone weakening rapidly.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to centre, decreasing to 30
knots in the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the
northwestern semicircle                                 
                       and within 120 miles in the southeastern
semicircle.

Forecast position near 15.7S 170.1E at 260600 UTC                   
     
              and near 15.9S 168.8E at 261800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 018.

That's what 70 kt of shear will do to ya...

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 26/0045 UTC 2006 UTC.

Depression 01F [997hPa] [former Tropical Cyclone XAVIER] was located
near 14.8S 170.3E at 260000 UTC moving northwest 08 knots. Position
good. Expect clockwise winds 30 to 35 knots within 120 miles of
centre in the southern semicircle, easing in the next 6 to 12 hours.

This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Depression
01F [former Tropical Cyclone Xavier] unless the situation changes.