Tropical Depression Paul Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico

[wxmann_91]

How ironic is that a year ago a storm headed west and was then was forecasted to turn all the way to the Northeast and strike land?

A year ago today, Wilma did just that.

Paul headed slowly west yesterday will swing around to the NE and accelerate towards land.. sounds familiar.

It's not ironic...it's climo.

Both the Pacific and Atlantic can still be quite active in Oct, and with diving troughs, they often do recurve.

[cycloneye]

815
WTPZ32 KNHC 232338
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
500 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

...PAUL MOVING NORTHWARD...SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATE
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES
...645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RECENT CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT PAUL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...AND
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[fci]

How ironic is that a year ago a storm headed west and was then was forecasted to turn all the way to the Northeast and strike land?

A year ago today, Wilma did just that.

Paul headed slowly west yesterday will swing around to the NE and accelerate towards land.. sounds familiar.

It's not ironic...it's climo.

Both the Pacific and Atlantic can still be quite active in Oct, and with diving troughs, they often do recurve.

Oh I agree with you.
I was just noting it since today is the anniversary of Wilma hitting here in So. Fla.
Could be anytime in October that this could occur but it happens on the anniverary.
That's the ironic part to me.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE PAUL (EP172006) ON 20061024 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061024 0000 061024 1200 061025 0000 061025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 111.7W 19.9N 111.3W 23.2N 109.6W 26.7N 105.7W
BAMM 17.3N 111.7W 19.3N 112.1W 21.7N 111.6W 24.4N 109.7W
LBAR 17.3N 111.7W 19.1N 111.6W 21.4N 110.9W 24.1N 109.4W
SHIP 80KTS 70KTS 63KTS 58KTS
DSHP 80KTS 70KTS 63KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061026 0000 061027 0000 061028 0000 061029 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 98.5W 33.5N 77.3W 33.7N 54.9W 29.9N 44.3W
BAMM 26.2N 105.8W 25.9N 97.2W 23.5N 86.8W 24.0N 78.2W
LBAR 26.6N 106.3W 30.4N 94.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 39KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 111.7W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 111.4W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 110.9W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 70NM


Continues to weaken slowly.Now down to 80kts.Good news for those who live in Baja California and the Mainland Mexican coast as they wont see a very strong cyclone making landfall.

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240235
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

...PAUL MOVING NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING...SHOULD PASS NEAR
SOCORRO ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES
...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 515
MILES...830 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT PAUL
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240536
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

...PAUL ON A WEAKENING TREND...HEADING TOWARD SOCORRO ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
ON TUESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES
...615 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 495
MILES...795 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL IS WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...28.30 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240831
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND PAUL NO LONGER
LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING
DETACHED. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE OUTSTANDING SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FOR QUITE SOMETIME. THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS...AND THIS IS ON THE
HIGH SIDE. DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT
SOCORRO ISLAND...NEAR THE HURRICANE...INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE IS
NOT FALLING AND WINDS ARE NOT INCREASING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS INDICATED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED INCREASING SHEAR.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SO THE INITIAL
MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 005 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 7 KNOTS. PAUL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING PAUL'S CIRCULATION NEAR OR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...
AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 36 HOURS. IT IS HARD
TO SAY HOW MUCH OF PAUL WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO GIVEN
THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND THE RAPID DECOUPLING OF THE
HURRICANE FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL NOW
JOINS THE CLUB AND KEEPS A WEAKENING CYCLONE LINGERING NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50-KT
TROPICAL STORM AT THE TIME PAUL APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.6N 111.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 107.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.0N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240831
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...PAUL FORECAST TO WEAKEN...

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
MAZATLAN TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES
...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 455
MILES...730 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.6 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

Poor Avila!

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240842
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...CORRECTION FOR TROPICAL STORM WACTH POINT ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO...

...PAUL FORECAST TO WEAKEN...

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES
...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 455
MILES...730 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.6 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

755
WTPZ32 KNHC 241151
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...PAUL NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA
BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 440
MILES...710 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
AND MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...18.8 N...111.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE PAUL (EP172006) ON 20061024 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061024 1200 061025 0000 061025 1200 061026 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 111.3W 21.4N 110.4W 24.5N 107.6W 26.8N 101.9W
BAMM 18.6N 111.3W 20.7N 111.0W 22.8N 109.5W 24.2N 107.1W
LBAR 18.6N 111.3W 20.5N 110.7W 23.1N 109.5W 25.5N 107.1W
SHIP 65KTS 56KTS 49KTS 41KTS
DSHP 65KTS 56KTS 49KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061026 1200 061027 1200 061028 1200 061029 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.2N 94.5W 30.9N 75.6W 30.0N 59.6W 28.7N 53.2W
BAMM 25.0N 104.7W 27.0N 94.4W 33.7N 77.7W 43.9N 58.6W
LBAR 27.6N 103.2W 34.5N 87.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 32KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 111.3W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 111.7W DIRM12 = 4DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 111.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 70NM

A minimal hurricane at 65kts.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 241439
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

A RECENT AMSU PASS NEAR 1100 UTC INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS BECOME
DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SEPARATED FROM THE
DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. THIS REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...360/7...REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. SINCE
PAUL IS QUICKLY BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT SHOULD BE STEERED
BY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POINTS THROUGH 48 HOURS ESSENTIALLY TAKING
WHAT IS LEFT OF PAUL JUST SOUTH OF BAJA AND TO THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL TRACK ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

GIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE...OR LACK THEREOF...AND THE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR...PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
INDEED...PAUL COULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
FORECAST.

ALL WATCHES AND WARNING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...SOME OF THE WATCHES
AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.9N 112.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 109.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241755
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...PAUL MOVING AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA
BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON
THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SOME OF THE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
405 MILES...655 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING THE CENTER OF
THE STORM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF
LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND
CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...19.7 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

What a difference 24 hours make, yesterday at this time RECON was finding winds of 88 knots in Paul, today, just 53 knots.

[cycloneye]

What a difference 24 hours make, yesterday at this time RECON was finding winds of 88 knots in Paul, today, just 53 knots.

And was almost a cat 3 24 hours ago at 110 mph.Good for Cabo San Lucas and Mainland Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

628
WTPZ42 KNHC 242034
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING PAUL
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE NOW UP TO 999 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT
BASED ON A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. WHILE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. INDEED...PAUL COULD
DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.

PAUL IS BEGINNING TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 020/12. THE CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OR VERY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND
OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BY 36 HOURS.

WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION APPEARS REMOTE...THE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF THE WEAKENING TREND
CONTINUES...SOME OR ALL OF THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 20.3N 111.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 21.7N 110.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 109.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 24.0N 107.7W 25 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Paul becomes another Otis!!!

[cycloneye]

677
WTPZ32 KNHC 242335
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...PAUL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA
BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON
THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THESE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF
LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND
CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[dwsqos2]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250234
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL IS
PULSING AND HAS A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SIGNATURE. WHILE DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT ABOUT 55 KT...THESE ARE LIKELY
OVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY BASED ON EARLIER AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND AMSU ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY IS
ANALYZED AT 40 KT. PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...DESPITE MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY
WARM WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

PAUL IS MOVING AT 025/12. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE
ADVECTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS PAUL BECOMES DECAPITATED
BY THE STRONG SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ONLY NOGAPS MAINTAINS A
ROBUST ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE PICKED UP BY DEEP-LAYERED FLOW AND
HAS THE CYCLONE'S SURFACE CENTER MAKE LANDFALL. ALL REMAINING
MODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE WATER.
THE FORECAST TRACK...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS OF THESE
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAS THE DECAYING CYCLONE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST AT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PAUL'S SURFACE CENTER WILL NOT TOUCH LAND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS BEING
MAINTAINED UNTIL PAUL PASSES THE PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO IS DROPPED AS IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT PAUL WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE INTENSITY...EVEN IF IT
DOES MAKE A LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 21.1N 110.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 109.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 22.6N 108.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.1N 107.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 23.6N 106.6W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
500 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

...PAUL PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA MEXICO...OUTER
RAINBANDS AFFECTING MAINLAND MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD
ON THE EAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 MILES
...290 KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF
LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND
CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...22.8 N...109.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 251421
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

WHILE PAUL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP PDAN INDICATES THAT THE
CYCLONE IS CLINGING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE
ESTIMATES AND THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP. PAUL
IS ALSO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...050/12...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAK TROPICAL
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING MAINLAND
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

PAUL IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA MEXICO...AND
ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THAT AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.0N 108.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 23.9N 107.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 24.6N 106.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH