Tropical Depression Paul Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 251744
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

...PAUL ACCELERATING TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
TAKING THE CENTER OF PAUL INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL PAUL MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN
TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...23.4 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 252033
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

AFTER TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE
CENTER BECOMING MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING
DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS NEARING
THE COASTLINE AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER IF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED...PAUL OR ITS
REMNANT COULD LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. IN ANY
EVENT...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEGRADING STRUCTURE...THE SYSTEM WILL
PROBABLY NOT MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH MUCH LONGER. DISSIPATION
SHOULD OCCUR RAPIDLY ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND.

EVEN IN A WEAKENED STATE THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 24.0N 107.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 106.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[cycloneye]

429
WTPZ32 KNHC 252250
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

...PAUL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... WARNINGS LOWERED BUT RAINFALL
THREAT CONTINUES...

AT 4 PM PDT...2300 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM PDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES...
180 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN
TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM PDT POSITION...24.4 N...108.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

WTPZ42 KNHC 252251
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO DOWNGRADE PAUL TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING... AND ADJUST THE
TRACK FORECAST.

PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 AT 7 KT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS OR SO AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2300Z 24.4N 108.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

Downgraded to depression as it makes landfall.

[cycloneye]

26/0000 UTC 24.4N 108.2W T1.5/2.0 PAUL -- East Pacific Ocean


See you Paul in 2012.

[AnnularCane]

26/0000 UTC 24.4N 108.2W T1.5/2.0 PAUL -- East Pacific Ocean


See you Paul in 2012.

I don't think blowing up Paul is necessary. He already made landfall.

[quandary]

Isn't the EPAC on a 4 year or 3 year list?

[Chacor]

Six years like the Atlantic.