SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[JenBayles]

gboudx - that part seems to be working fine. Been trying to get to the discussion and found it through your link - bookmarking it now, and thanks!
Here it is for anyone else who may be looking for it:

FXUS64 KHGX 252109 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 PM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH

.DISCUSSION...
A BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN WEATHER SITUATION COMING UP FOR SE TX OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAIN ITEM OF CONCERNS ARE RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE
TO THE MODELS BEING A BIT DIVERGENT ON SOLUTIONS FOR POPS AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NAM TONIGHT...A BLEND
OF THE NAM AND GFS THURSDAY...AND THEN THE GFS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
MID FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE STRENGTHENING THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO...DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALOFT
OVER SE TX BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. PREFERRED THE GFS HANDLING OF THE FRONT OVER THE NAM (WHICH
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS). THE RAIN OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.

FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TIMING
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF WILL BE CRITICAL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MAY BE PUSHED MORE TO EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
WITH A BIT OF HEATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL ADDRESS THESE ISSUES IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.

PL-40

[JenBayles]

For any interested, I found this announcement at gboudx's link:

NOUS44 KFWD 252002
PNSFWD
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-252200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

...INTERNET CONNECTION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS DOWN...

ALL EXTERNAL INTERNET CONNECTIVITY TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN REGION IS DOWN AT THIS TIME. TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND WORKING ON A SOLUTION...BUT ESTIMATED
TIME OF SERVICE RESTORATION IS NOT KNOWN.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting (almost scary) sounding last part AFD from Beaumont/Lake Charles:

FOR THURSDAY, A RATHER DEEP MOISTURE POOL WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TRAVELING SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO RELEASE THE POTENTIAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY; THUS
SUSTAINING THE STABLE RAINS. A DECREASE IN THE STABILITY WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE MIDAFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (RATHER THAN
POTENTIAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY) WILL PREDOMINANT. THE STABLE RAINS
WILL EVOLVE INTO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE; POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL PREDOMINATE. THE LIFT
ATTENDING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RELEASE THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY; NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ORGANIZING IN
LINES, WILL BE THE RESULT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING CUT-OFF
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EAST, REACHING
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC (AND CYCLONIC)
JET WILL MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL (AND ANTICYCLONIC) JET; AN
INTENSE ARKANSAS-TO-EAST TEXAS JET STREAK WILL BE IN PLACE. ITS
ASSOCIATED A-GEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION (THERMALLY DIRECT CELL) WILL
GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO THE FRONTAL LIFT.

[EastTxGal]

I am going to The Woodlands tomorrow and will be there all day. What are the chances of flooding conditions for the area?

[JenBayles]

East TX - who knows? The Houston area is notorious for flooding, but there's no way to ever predict where exactly it will hit. The Woodlands has much better drainage than the rest of the city, so I'm betting you'll be OK. Just watch the feeder roads on I-45 and Hwy 59. Rule of thumb: if it looks bad, it IS bad, and try to find the elusive alternate route.

[KatDaddy]

Looks like tomorrow will be another rough Houston day weatherwise. Looking more of a severe weather event than flooding issue. So are all our Houston-Galveston posters.........storm spotters ready. One of the news stations needs to pick us up as local spotters. Its time Storm2k become more visible to the public.

[JenBayles]

Regarding the internet outage earlier, I sent a comment in asking about it and here's the reply:

The fiber optic cable connecting the server farm that hosts that site to
the Internet was cut by a back hoe.

Ron Jones
Web Manager / Internet Projects
NOAA's National Weather Service
Office of the Chief Information Officer

I'm impressed I got a reply, but really want to know who the backhoe operator was!

Silver Spring, MD

[KatDaddy]

Excellent Jen. Thanks for the info. I tried to get online at work earlier and it was a lost cause.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JBs whole evening post tonight was about how he thought an arctic shot WAS coming down the plains next week and that the recent GFS runs (mentioned specifically was last night's 00Z) were wrong! He said the fluctuating signals in the sinking part of the MJO may have to do with the "model swings" we have been seeing.

I will be watching the models closely for sure to see if they swing back toward his prediction.

Either way, it looks like a real chilly scenario could be in store by this time next week.

[Johnny]

Sounds good to me EWG. Keep us updated if you can.

[JenBayles]

I am going to The Woodlands tomorrow and will be there all day. What are the chances of flooding conditions for the area?

EastTX - don't know the route you're planning, but apparently there is high water reported this morning along 105 between I-45 and hwy 59. Be careful out there!

[JenBayles]

We got a good pounding rain around 7:00 a.m. on the west side, but it seems to be over now. I'm looking forward to an hour's drive to the Galleria area around 9:00 this morning so hope the big stuff holds off for a while. My little Mustang doesn't like much water on the road. That just reminded me - methinks it's time to replace the nearly bald tires on the rear of the car...

[JenBayles]

Hmmmmm... looks like that backhoe operator is at it again this morning. Anyone else having problems with the NWS HGX site?

[jasons2k]

Hmmmmm... looks like that backhoe operator is at it again this morning. Anyone else having problems with the NWS HGX site?

It looks down. Try IWIN.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

"NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch along and E of I-45 through 500am Friday morning.

Discussion:

Moist tropical feed will combine with lift from approaching trough and cold front to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Due to rains this morning on top of wet grounds from last week there is an increased risk of flooding from excessive rainfall. Training of cells is the biggest concern especially along and SE of US 59 where a low level rain cooled boundary appears to be taking shape along with coastal convergence.

Amounts of 1-3 inches widespread with 3-5 inches isolated can be expected.

Jeff Lindner"

[Portastorm]

Good grief, y'all don't need any more flooding down there ...

[vbhoutex]

Already had some good heavy brief downpours this am. Norhtern areas around Conroe had up to 3.25" already!!! Made the commute a lot of fun!!!NOT!!!! Obviously a lot of available moisture and a lot of instability in the area. If everything comes together later today like they say it could I do not look forward to that weather. It could get pretty rough!!!! And we DON'T NEED ANYMORE RAIN for at least a few more days!!! Thanks el nino pattern.

[Johnny]

Yep, we got alot of rain in the wee hours this morning. I emptied my rain gauge out yesterday and this morning I had right at 3.5 inches!

[JenBayles]

VB - Back when I worked for ARS (about 1999-2000 trying to consolidate the HVAC industry - HA!) management used El Nino as the excuse for the poor earnings. "Oh, El Nino and warmer weather means fewer furnaces getting broken, so whaddaya do?" A co-worker in Treasury would put on this horrible "Frito-Bandito" accident and roam the halls after anylist calls saying, "I am El Nino! I'm going to kick your arse!"

Anyway - back to topic - not much on the far west side this morning. My 25 miles drive to and from the Galleria was either sunny or pounding rain. Just in and out of it all the way.

[PTrackerLA]

Here is the NWS Lake Charles discussion from early this morning. Looking at the radars I'd say we'll pick up 2-3" at least with this system. Storms are training West to East just north of the I-10 corridor in LA and unfortunately in the Beaumont area as well.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
420 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE PAUL. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...MAINLY
FROM TRAINING TSRA. BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE FRI...AVERAGE BASIN
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

NOW THE SEVERE WX THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER ALL
THE AREA THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX. HOWEVER...THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER LA...AS THE
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS OK AND AR BY
THIS TIME...WITH THE MAX UPPER DIVERGENCE AND UPWARD VV OVER C AND
S LA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LARGE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PICK UP SPEED AND MOVE ACROSS C AND S LA...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT TORNADOES AHEAD AND WITHIN THE
LINE ITSELF (BOOKEND VORTICES).


NOW THE GOOD NEWS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY...EXPECT A SUNNY
BUT COOLER WEEKEND WITH NO PRECIP. TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING IN THE 70S BOTH
DAYS.

BY MON...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. WITH THIS...PUT BACK THE CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA TUE & TUE NIGHT.