My Top 10 Reasons Forecasts for 2006 Activity Were Wrong

[wxman57]

As the season continues to wind down, I'm working on my post-seasn and pre 2007 season talks. Thought you might like to hear my top 10 reasons why just about everyone forecast too many named storms in 2006. I put togetehr a PowerPoint presentation. The first slide has the 10 reasons hidden by white boxes. Just click the screen to advance from reason 10 to reason 1. The next 10 slides have my thoughts on each of the reasons. Any other reasons you think I should add?

My Top 10:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/TopTen2.ppt

Free PPT Viewer:
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/deta ... laylang=en

[HURAKAN]

Nice presentation, and I agree, especially reason #1.

[jabber]

Very nice. I agree with your number one. Doubt I see another 2005 season in my lifetime.

[Rainband]

Nice presentation

[flashflood]

That was a good presentation, easy to understand, and summarized quite nicely without going into too much detail. Great job!

The only thing I have a thought on, was there seemed to have been several somewhat organized disturbances in the BOC this year that could have developed, but moved into land too fast. There were also other systems that this years pattern caused them to move over mountainous land areas such as Ernesto and Chris. If those systems could have developed more, that could have raised the numbers a bit, however I am not sure if this is typical of an El-Nino or early winter pattern etc.

[Jim Cantore]

Nice job, thanks for sharing.

I like number 8, even active cycles have off years, hence 1997 and now 2006.

[chadtm80]

Great Job wxman.. Thanks for sharing.

[fci]

Terrific presentation easy for everyone to understand.

Thank you SO MUCH for sharing this with us!!!!!

Also, since it appears we are at, or near; the tail end of the Hurricane Season; a huge THANK YOU to you for being so active and patient with us for the season.
Your insights and thoughts throughout the season were so helpful and kept things very well in perspective.

[Aquawind]

Ditto fci



Thanks wxman57!

[Coredesat]

Excellent presentation.

Now I wonder what people will do for 2007, given how this year ended up...

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for your thoughts.

I think that about sums it up. I do agree that El Nino was not as big of a factor as some make it out to be. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

[hurricanetrack]

Any early thoughts on 2007? Since the seasons have no memory of what happened the prior season, we could reasonably assume that these negative factos will not be present again in 2007. Thus, one could assume, based on the premise that seasons have no memory, that the 2007 season will feature higher landfall chances than did the reality of 2006.

Of course, we went two entire seasons, 2000 and 2001, with not a single hurricane landfall- so perhaps the seasons do run in pairs somewhat. I guess we'll know this time next year.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Any early thoughts on 2007?

I'm sure we'll have six months of non-stop amateur prognostication, so dare we start already?

I wonder if the El Niño that has taken hold will still be a force once 6/1/07 rolls around?

My first fearless prediction for next year: the first named storm will not be until August or late July at the earliest, but it will be a hurricane. Hurricane Andrea will hit land, but NOT in the Galveston area. (Because its two retired predecessors, Allison and Alicia, did, and it would be too big a coincidence if Andrea did too!).

[Rainband]

Terrific presentation easy for everyone to understand.

Thank you SO MUCH for sharing this with us!!!!!

Also, since it appears we are at, or near; the tail end of the Hurricane Season; a huge THANK YOU to you for being so active and patient with us for the season.
Your insights and thoughts throughout the season were so helpful and kept things very well in perspective.

I agree. Thanks Wxman and all the Pro mets for taking time out of your Busy schedules to help us all understand weather a bit better.

[Ptarmigan]

Good presentaton. You made some good points.

[Cyclenall]

Any early thoughts on 2007?

Yes, it will be much different then the 2004, 2005, and 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons.

I wonder if the El Niño that has taken hold will still be a force once 6/1/07 rolls around?

Nope. I would be surprised if it did. It should last into the spring though.

[windycity]

Great job! I always love hearing what the pro mets have to say! Although i havnt posted lately, i check on every day. I dont want a Oct. surprise.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Great presentation! Thanks so much for taking the time to put that together, a very interesting read!

[Jim Cantore]

With number one, about few if any seasons with so many named storms, the best example I can think of is 2003-2005 (16-15-28)

[Swimdude]

I'm really just floored by this whole season.

One day, everything just... stopped. This season ended in August. I think that's incredible.