Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[gatorcane]

Wouldn't that be something after all this boring season had to offer that a storm would have an effect on things this late in the season.

Yes it would be one of the biggest surprises ever to have a significant system going into Nov entering the Caribbean and heading West after most people have stopped paying attention....

would that not be something or what?

[GeneratorPower]

Maybe gatorcane will get his late October surprise after all.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW FAIRLY
EASY TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. DESPITE THE FAIR STRUCTURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN MINIMAL AND
DISORGANIZED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 50W-56W...THEREFORE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.


Above is the 8:05 PM discussion.I think is about time to start to run models on this system,in other words invest 93L.

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Guess what,we have 93L now.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 270213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS POORLY ORGANIZED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

Looks like something is trying to organize out there.

With only 5-10 kts of shear ahead, wonder what will happen if this area continues to develop.

[gatorcane]

looks like the best TW of the season and its almost November!!! Go figure right?

[gatorcane]

latest sat pic showing lots of deep reds showing up near the "center." I think it is time to say:

here we go folks

[AussieMark]

shear is light in the Caribbean until u get into the western portion

between South America, Honduras and Jamaica is around 20 kts of shear.

altho thats nothing compared to GOM where there is if 40 - 50 kts of shear

[Normandy]

if it develops shouldt it be kicked N then NE anyway?

[AussieMark]

thats good word to use if

[Thunder44]

744
ABNT20 KNHC 270856
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS POORLY ORGANIZED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[NONAME]

First Visible this morning shows signs of organization with good convection and it is flaring over the suposed center.

[cycloneye]

27/1145 UTC 12.8N 57.1W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

First T numbers are given to 93L from SSD dvorak sat estimates.

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like if it can hold together it will be a low tracker and miss the trough to the north, perhaps ending up in the W. Caribbean where it could really get going.

[boca]

Looks like its now moving SW towards Trinadad/Tobago area. I'm not concerned about this one either its 2006.

[drezee]

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL IMVEST
NEAR 15N 69W AT 29/1800Z.

[boca]

Nothing there on the sat picture at 15N and 69W.

[boca]

I do see a low level twist at 18N and 81 or 82W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

Looks like its now moving SW towards Trinadad/Tobago area. I'm not concerned about this one either its 2006.

Yeah but only 2 months from 2007 right?