Invest area 96W is now being listed as a tropical depression by JMA. Here's what they have to say:
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 136E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 37N 116E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 46N 130E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 30N 168E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1036 HPA AT 48N 174E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 162E TO 32N 169E 33N 176E 33N 180E 35N
170W.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
ECMWF for the last few runs have been forecasting a TC in the South China Sea making landfall in Vietnam in about a week. The latest run shows a Xangsane mark 2 style situation, with a stron TC smacking right into Danang. I'll be keeping my eye on this one.
James.
Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Typhoon Hunter
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Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC
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Typhoon Hunter
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!
Damn...i go out for a few beers, come back and there's a TCFA out and JMA are issuing warning for the system!
BTW folks in US, it's 10.30pm here so don't worry I'm not drinking in the morning!
BTW folks in US, it's 10.30pm here so don't worry I'm not drinking in the morning!
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Tropical Storm Cimaron.
WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 13.0N 131.0E POOR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 70NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 14.3N 127.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 290600UTC 15.8N 124.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 300600UTC 16.7N 120.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 13.0N 131.0E POOR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 70NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 14.3N 127.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 290600UTC 15.8N 124.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 300600UTC 16.7N 120.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
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WTJP21 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 992 HPA
AT 13.0N 130.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 14.2N 126.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 15.8N 123.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 16.2N 119.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 992 HPA
AT 13.0N 130.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 14.2N 126.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 15.8N 123.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 16.2N 119.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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TheEuropean
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P.K.
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Upgraded.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 13.8N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 15.2N 126.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 291800UTC 16.5N 123.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 301800UTC 17.1N 119.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 13.8N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 15.2N 126.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 291800UTC 16.5N 123.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 301800UTC 17.1N 119.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
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WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0619 CIMARON (0619)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS GOOD.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CDO HAS EXPANDED.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0619 CIMARON (0619)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS GOOD.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CDO HAS EXPANDED.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.0N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.2N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.6N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.3N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 127.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.0N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.2N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.6N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.3N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 127.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
NNNN
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TY from JMA.
WTJP21 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 14.9N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.1N 124.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.2N 121.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 17.0N 118.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WTJP21 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 14.9N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.1N 124.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.2N 121.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 17.0N 118.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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P.K.
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- Contact:
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 15.5N 126.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 16.6N 123.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 301200UTC 17.7N 121.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 311200UTC 17.7N 118.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 15.5N 126.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 16.6N 123.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 301200UTC 17.7N 121.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 311200UTC 17.7N 118.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
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whereverwx
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
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RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 15.9N 125.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 17.4N 123.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 301800UTC 17.8N 120.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
69HF 311800UTC 17.1N 118.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 15.9N 125.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 17.4N 123.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 301800UTC 17.8N 120.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
69HF 311800UTC 17.1N 118.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
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wxmann_91
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- Contact:
It's almost scary how Cimaron nearly is a carbon copy of Angela in 1995.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/large.html? ... 0&mode=UTC
ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... S-5-IR.jpg
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/large.html? ... 0&mode=UTC
ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... S-5-IR.jpg
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