Tropical Depression 18-E in EPAC
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- NONAME
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Tropical Depression 18-E in EPAC
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABPZ20 KNHC 252254
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
We may see TD 18-E soon.
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
We may see TD 18-E soon.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932006) ON 20061025 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061025 1800 061026 0600 061026 1800 061027 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 102.4W 16.3N 103.6W 17.0N 104.7W 17.4N 105.7W
BAMM 15.7N 102.4W 16.4N 103.5W 17.2N 104.8W 17.8N 106.0W
LBAR 15.7N 102.4W 16.4N 104.2W 17.3N 106.0W 18.0N 107.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061027 1800 061028 1800 061029 1800 061030 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 107.1W 16.7N 111.5W 17.4N 115.7W 18.3N 117.6W
BAMM 18.0N 107.4W 17.8N 111.2W 18.5N 115.1W 19.2N 116.1W
LBAR 18.0N 108.9W 16.7N 112.4W 14.7N 116.8W 14.2N 121.0W
SHIP 44KTS 53KTS 52KTS 45KTS
DSHP 44KTS 53KTS 52KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 102.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 100.5W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 98.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061025 1800 061026 0600 061026 1800 061027 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 102.4W 16.3N 103.6W 17.0N 104.7W 17.4N 105.7W
BAMM 15.7N 102.4W 16.4N 103.5W 17.2N 104.8W 17.8N 106.0W
LBAR 15.7N 102.4W 16.4N 104.2W 17.3N 106.0W 18.0N 107.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061027 1800 061028 1800 061029 1800 061030 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 107.1W 16.7N 111.5W 17.4N 115.7W 18.3N 117.6W
BAMM 18.0N 107.4W 17.8N 111.2W 18.5N 115.1W 19.2N 116.1W
LBAR 18.0N 108.9W 16.7N 112.4W 14.7N 116.8W 14.2N 121.0W
SHIP 44KTS 53KTS 52KTS 45KTS
DSHP 44KTS 53KTS 52KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 102.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 100.5W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 98.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932006) ON 20061026 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061026 0000 061026 1200 061027 0000 061027 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 102.5W 16.8N 103.4W 17.3N 104.4W 17.4N 105.6W
BAMM 16.2N 102.5W 16.8N 103.5W 17.3N 104.8W 17.6N 106.3W
LBAR 16.2N 102.5W 17.0N 103.9W 17.9N 105.0W 18.4N 105.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061028 0000 061029 0000 061030 0000 061031 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 107.1W 16.4N 110.3W 16.4N 113.0W 17.0N 113.6W
BAMM 17.7N 107.8W 17.5N 110.7W 17.8N 112.7W 18.2N 112.5W
LBAR 18.3N 106.4W 17.8N 107.6W 17.7N 108.0W 18.3N 108.2W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 43KTS 39KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 43KTS 39KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 102.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.2N LONM12 = 101.4W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 99.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061026 0000 061026 1200 061027 0000 061027 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 102.5W 16.8N 103.4W 17.3N 104.4W 17.4N 105.6W
BAMM 16.2N 102.5W 16.8N 103.5W 17.3N 104.8W 17.6N 106.3W
LBAR 16.2N 102.5W 17.0N 103.9W 17.9N 105.0W 18.4N 105.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061028 0000 061029 0000 061030 0000 061031 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 107.1W 16.4N 110.3W 16.4N 113.0W 17.0N 113.6W
BAMM 17.7N 107.8W 17.5N 110.7W 17.8N 112.7W 18.2N 112.5W
LBAR 18.3N 106.4W 17.8N 107.6W 17.7N 108.0W 18.3N 108.2W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 43KTS 39KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 43KTS 39KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 102.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.2N LONM12 = 101.4W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 99.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL IS LOCATED ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED WITHIN THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY
THIS MORNING AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS
IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
26/0545 UTC 16.6N 103.2W T2.0/2.0 93E -- East Pacific Ocean
Very small but very well-organized low pressure that should be a depression as we speak.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL IS LOCATED ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED WITHIN THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY
THIS MORNING AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS
IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
26/0545 UTC 16.6N 103.2W T2.0/2.0 93E -- East Pacific Ocean

Very small but very well-organized low pressure that should be a depression as we speak.
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NRL has 18E.
940
WHXX01 KMIA 261335
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP182006) ON 20061026 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061026 1200 061027 0000 061027 1200 061028 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 103.9W 17.3N 105.1W 17.6N 106.4W 17.5N 108.0W
BAMM 16.7N 103.9W 17.5N 105.2W 17.8N 106.5W 17.9N 108.2W
LBAR 16.7N 103.9W 17.4N 105.2W 17.8N 106.4W 18.1N 107.7W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061028 1200 061029 1200 061030 1200 061031 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 109.7W 17.2N 112.6W 17.2N 112.5W 15.9N 110.9W
BAMM 17.9N 109.8W 18.3N 112.6W 19.0N 111.9W 18.7N 107.7W
LBAR 17.6N 108.9W 17.0N 110.7W 17.0N 111.6W 17.0N 111.4W
SHIP 46KTS 48KTS 41KTS 35KTS
DSHP 46KTS 48KTS 41KTS 35KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 103.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 102.3W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 101.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
940
WHXX01 KMIA 261335
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP182006) ON 20061026 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061026 1200 061027 0000 061027 1200 061028 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 103.9W 17.3N 105.1W 17.6N 106.4W 17.5N 108.0W
BAMM 16.7N 103.9W 17.5N 105.2W 17.8N 106.5W 17.9N 108.2W
LBAR 16.7N 103.9W 17.4N 105.2W 17.8N 106.4W 18.1N 107.7W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061028 1200 061029 1200 061030 1200 061031 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 109.7W 17.2N 112.6W 17.2N 112.5W 15.9N 110.9W
BAMM 17.9N 109.8W 18.3N 112.6W 19.0N 111.9W 18.7N 107.7W
LBAR 17.6N 108.9W 17.0N 110.7W 17.0N 111.6W 17.0N 111.4W
SHIP 46KTS 48KTS 41KTS 35KTS
DSHP 46KTS 48KTS 41KTS 35KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 103.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 102.3W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 101.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261435
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
800 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS IS NOW ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...
WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTH.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND
THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/8. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. BY 96 HR...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...LEAVING THE
DEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE
RIDGE TO RE-BUILD WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 96
HR...LEAVING THE CYCLONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS AND
TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS SOMEWHAT
LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE COULD TURN
NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST THROUGH 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR STEADY SLOW STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE SMALL INNER
CORE THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER. AFTER 72 HR...
THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GFS KEEPS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPRESSION AND THE TROUGH TO KEEP THE SHEAR LIGHT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS FORECAST 20-25 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE UKMET FORECASTS A VERY UNFAVORABLE 40-60 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE
ECMWF/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS TO FORECAST A SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 16.8N 104.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.1N 107.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 108.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.1N 110.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 112.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ43 KNHC 261435
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
800 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS IS NOW ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...
WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTH.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND
THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/8. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. BY 96 HR...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...LEAVING THE
DEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE
RIDGE TO RE-BUILD WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 96
HR...LEAVING THE CYCLONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS AND
TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS SOMEWHAT
LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE COULD TURN
NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST THROUGH 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR STEADY SLOW STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE SMALL INNER
CORE THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER. AFTER 72 HR...
THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GFS KEEPS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPRESSION AND THE TROUGH TO KEEP THE SHEAR LIGHT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS FORECAST 20-25 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE UKMET FORECASTS A VERY UNFAVORABLE 40-60 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE
ECMWF/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS TO FORECAST A SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 16.8N 104.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.1N 107.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 108.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.1N 110.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 112.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146119
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
718
WTPZ43 KNHC 262032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
200 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING RAIN BANDS OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL AS A VERY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT DUE TO THE RATHER LIMITED AREAL
EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS BOTH INDICATE
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND WITH A FORECAST MOTION OVER SEAS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 28C. THE GFDL SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
BEYOND DAY 3 WHICH MIGHT BE DUE THERMODYNAMIC INFLUENCES. THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO. A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AND THE
GFDL...INDICATE A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS FORECAST
A MORE PRONOUNCED BUILDING OF THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE EARLIER
RUNS. THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND OF THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
TOWARD THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE
LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED OFF OF
A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND THE GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.0N 104.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.9N 105.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 107.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.1N 111.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
WTPZ43 KNHC 262032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
200 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING RAIN BANDS OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL AS A VERY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT DUE TO THE RATHER LIMITED AREAL
EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS BOTH INDICATE
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND WITH A FORECAST MOTION OVER SEAS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 28C. THE GFDL SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
BEYOND DAY 3 WHICH MIGHT BE DUE THERMODYNAMIC INFLUENCES. THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO. A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AND THE
GFDL...INDICATE A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS FORECAST
A MORE PRONOUNCED BUILDING OF THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE EARLIER
RUNS. THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND OF THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
TOWARD THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE
LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED OFF OF
A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND THE GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.0N 104.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.9N 105.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 107.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.1N 111.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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- Posts: 2876
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WTPZ43 KNHC 270233
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
800 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE
TONIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH A LACK OF DEFINITIVE BANDING FEATURES...
HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON FUTURE INTENSIFICATION... WITH
LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS BEING THE STRONGEST POSITIVE
FACTORS. HOWEVER THE GFDL DOESN'T FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING AND
INSTEAD DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BEYOND 90 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE
GFDL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER THIS SEASON... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A BIT FROM THE LAST
PACKAGE... SHOWING A MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION RATE AND A LOWER
PEAK INTENSITY.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE WEST TONIGHT AT ABOUT 7 KT
BASED ON A 2212 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS
AGENCIES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO MOST GLOBAL MODELS NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE
DEPRESSION. HOWEVER... GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIDDLE-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BUILD AND COULD FORCE
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS RIDGE REMAINING INTACT FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON... BUT IS STILL TO THE NORTH OF MOST
GUIDANCE AS WE'RE NOT READY TO TOTALLY BUY INTO A SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION. IN THE LONGER-RANGE... THE FORECAST IS SPED UP AND FARTHER
SOUTH DUE TO MOST MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING THAN IN THE
EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE BAM MEDIUM/DEEP
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.9N 105.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.3N 108.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
800 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE
TONIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH A LACK OF DEFINITIVE BANDING FEATURES...
HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON FUTURE INTENSIFICATION... WITH
LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS BEING THE STRONGEST POSITIVE
FACTORS. HOWEVER THE GFDL DOESN'T FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING AND
INSTEAD DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BEYOND 90 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE
GFDL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER THIS SEASON... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A BIT FROM THE LAST
PACKAGE... SHOWING A MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION RATE AND A LOWER
PEAK INTENSITY.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE WEST TONIGHT AT ABOUT 7 KT
BASED ON A 2212 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS
AGENCIES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO MOST GLOBAL MODELS NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE
DEPRESSION. HOWEVER... GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIDDLE-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BUILD AND COULD FORCE
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS RIDGE REMAINING INTACT FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON... BUT IS STILL TO THE NORTH OF MOST
GUIDANCE AS WE'RE NOT READY TO TOTALLY BUY INTO A SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION. IN THE LONGER-RANGE... THE FORECAST IS SPED UP AND FARTHER
SOUTH DUE TO MOST MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING THAN IN THE
EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE BAM MEDIUM/DEEP
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.9N 105.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.3N 108.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006
IF THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER...YOU WOULD NEVER KNOW IT FROM THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT
0144Z. THIS PASS SHOWED A LOT OF LIGHT WINDS...A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH
TROUGH AXIS...AND PRECIOUS LITTLE ELSE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT
0305Z SHOWED ALMOST NO STRUCTURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES. HOWEVER...
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ROTATION ALOFT AROUND THE LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION...SO IF THE CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE A SURFACE
CIRCULATION COULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AGAIN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS SUB-ROSA...AND IS LOWERED TO 25 KT
IN ACCORD WITH THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE. WHILE THERE ARE HINTS THAT
WHATEVER SURFACE CENTER EXISTS MAY BE LAGGING BEHIND THE DEEP
CONVECTION...I'LL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND THE ROTATION ALOFT FOR AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/8. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM
ON A TRACK A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE.
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND POOR DEFINITION OF THE WIND FIELD...THE
DEPRESSION IS BECOMING A CANDIDATE FOR EARLY DISSIPATION.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE THE SAME. FACTORS FAVORING THIS
SCENARIO INCLUDE LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE
ENVIRONMENT IS A LITTLE DRY...AND IF THESE FACTORS KEEP A LID ON
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN THE DEPRESSION COULD
DISSIPATE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 16.6N 106.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.4N 107.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 109.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 15.7N 111.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 15.5N 113.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 15.5N 117.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 15.5N 121.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
Looks like we might not even get Rosa from this.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006
IF THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER...YOU WOULD NEVER KNOW IT FROM THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT
0144Z. THIS PASS SHOWED A LOT OF LIGHT WINDS...A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH
TROUGH AXIS...AND PRECIOUS LITTLE ELSE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT
0305Z SHOWED ALMOST NO STRUCTURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES. HOWEVER...
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ROTATION ALOFT AROUND THE LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION...SO IF THE CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE A SURFACE
CIRCULATION COULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AGAIN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS SUB-ROSA...AND IS LOWERED TO 25 KT
IN ACCORD WITH THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE. WHILE THERE ARE HINTS THAT
WHATEVER SURFACE CENTER EXISTS MAY BE LAGGING BEHIND THE DEEP
CONVECTION...I'LL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND THE ROTATION ALOFT FOR AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/8. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM
ON A TRACK A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE.
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND POOR DEFINITION OF THE WIND FIELD...THE
DEPRESSION IS BECOMING A CANDIDATE FOR EARLY DISSIPATION.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE THE SAME. FACTORS FAVORING THIS
SCENARIO INCLUDE LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE
ENVIRONMENT IS A LITTLE DRY...AND IF THESE FACTORS KEEP A LID ON
THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN THE DEPRESSION COULD
DISSIPATE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 16.6N 106.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.4N 107.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 109.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 15.7N 111.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 15.5N 113.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 15.5N 117.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 15.5N 121.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
Looks like we might not even get Rosa from this.
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Not dead just yet, but no longer expected to become a TS.
WTPZ23 KNHC 271433
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.0W
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 105.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ23 KNHC 271433
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.0W
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 105.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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759
WTPZ43 KNHC 271437
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006
LATE-NIGHT SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXPOSED ABOUT 90 N
MI SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THE REASON FOR THIS IS
UNCLEAR...AS SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY 10-15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE
CYCLONE...AND PERHAPS THIS HAS HELPED DRY THE SYSTEM UP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.
AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE CENTER MOVED ALMOST DUE SOUTH
DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FROM THE LAST
ADVISORY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE
MOTION...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 225/4. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING LOW/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD...WITH THE BAM MODELS SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE RE-LOCATION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
THE PARTING OF THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION REQUIRES A MAJOR CHANGE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL NOW
CALLS FOR PROLONGED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE OTHER AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BEFORE DAY 5. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PERSIST AS A WEAK
DEPRESSION FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AND
DISSIPATION. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTER...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.8N 105.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W 25 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W 25 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ43 KNHC 271437
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006
LATE-NIGHT SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXPOSED ABOUT 90 N
MI SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THE REASON FOR THIS IS
UNCLEAR...AS SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY 10-15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE
CYCLONE...AND PERHAPS THIS HAS HELPED DRY THE SYSTEM UP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.
AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE CENTER MOVED ALMOST DUE SOUTH
DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FROM THE LAST
ADVISORY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE
MOTION...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 225/4. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING LOW/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD...WITH THE BAM MODELS SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE RE-LOCATION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
THE PARTING OF THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION REQUIRES A MAJOR CHANGE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL NOW
CALLS FOR PROLONGED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE OTHER AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BEFORE DAY 5. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PERSIST AS A WEAK
DEPRESSION FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AND
DISSIPATION. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTER...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.8N 105.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W 25 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W 25 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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WTPZ43 KNHC 272014
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION
CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 115 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE RATHER LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AT THIS POINT...
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS SOME STABLE AIR INTRUSION SEEM TO BE
HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THIS
MORNING'S 1250Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED NOTHING STRONGER THAN
25 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE EXPOSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 25 KT BASED OFF OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.
SHIPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A QUICKER DEMISE
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO FESTER AS A
WEAK DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATION IN 2 DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/6...WITHIN THE SHALLOW
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA. GLOBAL
MODELS ALL SUGGEST A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVES
BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE MODELS DO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA/NORTHWEST MEXICO
WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SHALLOW BAM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.6N 105.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.1N 106.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.8N 108.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.8N 109.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION
CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 115 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE RATHER LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AT THIS POINT...
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS SOME STABLE AIR INTRUSION SEEM TO BE
HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THIS
MORNING'S 1250Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED NOTHING STRONGER THAN
25 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE EXPOSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 25 KT BASED OFF OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.
SHIPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A QUICKER DEMISE
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO FESTER AS A
WEAK DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATION IN 2 DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/6...WITHIN THE SHALLOW
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA. GLOBAL
MODELS ALL SUGGEST A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVES
BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE MODELS DO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA/NORTHWEST MEXICO
WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SHALLOW BAM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.6N 105.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.1N 106.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.8N 108.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.8N 109.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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