Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[hcane27]

Nothing there on the sat picture at 15N and 69W.

That is not where the system is located now ... that is where they expect it to be on 10/29 @ 18z

[TheEuropean]

I do see a low level twist at 18N and 81 or 82W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Hi boca, are you at the right system? Yours is another small system in NW-Caribbean

[boca]

Hey right now I'm just grabbing for straws.

[abajan]

The wording of the latest TWO is hinting at something:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml?text

Don't let your guards down just yet, folks!

[lester]

The wording of the latest TWO is hinting at something:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml?text

Don't let your guards down just yet, folks!

Joyce, is that you??

[Chacor]

565
WHXX01 KWBC 271352
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20061027 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061027 1200 061028 0000 061028 1200 061029 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 57.0W 13.0N 59.4W 13.2N 62.2W 13.8N 65.3W
BAMM 12.9N 57.0W 13.0N 59.9W 13.2N 63.2W 14.0N 66.6W
A98E 12.9N 57.0W 12.9N 59.8W 13.1N 62.7W 13.5N 65.6W
LBAR 12.9N 57.0W 13.2N 59.7W 13.8N 62.3W 14.8N 65.0W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061029 1200 061030 1200 061031 1200 061101 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 68.3W 16.7N 73.5W 18.1N 77.0W 19.1N 79.5W
BAMM 15.0N 70.0W 17.2N 75.7W 18.7N 79.5W 19.8N 82.6W
A98E 14.2N 68.3W 15.4N 73.2W 16.7N 77.3W 18.0N 80.6W
LBAR 15.7N 67.6W 17.8N 71.6W 19.7N 74.3W 20.0N 75.6W
SHIP 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS 54KTS
DSHP 34KTS 42KTS 45KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 54.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 51.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Stormcenter]

The wording of the latest TWO is hinting at something:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml?text

Don't let your guards down just yet, folks!

My guard is off on Fall/Winter break.

[Stormcenter]

Seriously folks, please look at your calendars and that pretty much should tell you this will not a be a "major" threat for anyone along the U.S. mainland. Now the islands are more of a concern if something were to develop but even if it were I wouldn't expect anything like a Wilma. Yeah I know anything is possible but I don't think this is it.

[AnnularCane]

I'm not getting excited until it turns into something.

[Frank2]

Interesting...

[gatorcane]

here we go folks. I think this is the big October surprise. It's been far far to quiet this season:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271519
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOMEMORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[gatorcane]

Seriously folks, please look at your calendars and that pretty much should tell you this will not a be a "major" threat for anyone along the U.S. mainland. Now the islands are more of a concern if something were to develop but even if it were I wouldn't expect anything like a Wilma. Yeah I know anything is possible but I don't think this is it.

easily could - track through Caribbean into Western Caribbean. Big trough pulls it N and NE.....

this is going to get interesting...

the "Great Halloween Storm of 2006" - could it happen?

[Derek Ortt]

an October surprise?

That seems quite a bit over the top

[gatorcane]

There is a nice ridge building in that could let it go west through the Caribbean:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr

[Steve H.]

Maybe a bit over the top, but IF upper level winds become more favorable this thing will spin up as it is showing signs of better organization this afternoon. Looking at the calendar says it is still hurricane season, and we've had some big one's in the Caribbean during this period. Its definitely something worth watching

[gatorcane]

it would be a wake up call for us all if something signficant (i.e. a depression or greater forms) and the cone take into into the Western Caribbean.

Wow

[Damar91]

The "ghost" of Wilma past???????

[Stormcenter]

The "ghost" of Wilma past???????

Not likely, look at those nice cool waters in the GOM.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[gatorcane]

Not really. Linkweather's map showing low 80s and even warmer in the SE GOM....enough to support a major cane or at least to sustain one if one gets going in the boiling waters of the NW Caribbean:

http://www.baynews9.com/WeatherMaps.html?STATE

We need one more big cold front to end the season for the US

[Damar91]

The "ghost" of Wilma past???????

Not likely, look at those nice cool waters in the GOM.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Have to disagree with you there, 80-85 degree waters is plenty warm enough to sustain a hurricane. Not saying this will be one but the waters will support one.