Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[Stormcenter]

Not really. Linkweather's map showing low 80s and even warmer in the SE GOM....enough to support a major cane or at least to sustain one if one gets going in the boiling waters of the NW Caribbean:

http://www.baynews9.com/WeatherMaps.html?STATE

We need one more big cold front to end the season for the US

It's coming next week. Anyway, the upper level winds in the GOM are horrendous for tropical systems this time of year. I would not get too
excited. As I stated before it's October 27th and not August or September 27th. You really can't expect much this time of season unless
of course you were talking about the 2005 season. We all know that was a season like no other.

[Stormcenter]

The "ghost" of Wilma past???????

Not likely, look at those nice cool waters in the GOM.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Have to disagree with you there, 80-85 degree waters is plenty warm enough to sustain a hurricane. Not saying this will be one but the waters will support one.

Please see my other post. But anyway, base how "this" season has been so far this system has very little if any chance of doing anything that would affect the U.S.

[gatorcane]

Not really. Linkweather's map showing low 80s and even warmer in the SE GOM....enough to support a major cane or at least to sustain one if one gets going in the boiling waters of the NW Caribbean:

http://www.baynews9.com/WeatherMaps.html?STATE

We need one more big cold front to end the season for the US

It's coming next week. Anyway, the upper level winds in the GOM are horrendous for tropical systems this time of year. I would not get too
excited. As I stated before it's October 27th and not August or September 27th. You really can't expect much this time of season unless
of course you were talking about the 2005 season. We all know that was a season like no other.

is it? I didn't think it was coming next week. My guess is the second week in November will finish it off.

[fci]

it would be a wake up call for us all if something signficant (i.e. a depression or greater forms) and the cone take into into the Western Caribbean.

Wow

What a desperate season of 2006 for those who want (or wanted) excitement!
Now, we have reached the point where a depression can be "something significant".

There is a better chance of Tom Foley having a slew of girlfriends as the "October surprise" than a strong Tropical System to develop out of 93L!!
(for you Chris)

Stick your ear real, real close to your monitor and you will hear the aria from the fat lady....... She is singing.

[Stormcenter]

it would be a wake up call for us all if something signficant (i.e. a depression or greater forms) and the cone take into into the Western Caribbean.

Wow

What a desperate season of 2006 for those who want (or wanted) excitement!
Now, we have reached the point where a depression can be "something significant".

There is a better chance of Tom Foley having a slew of girlfriends as the "October surprise" than a strong Tropical System to develop out of 93L!!
(for you Chris)

Stick your ear real, real close to your monitor and you will hear the aria from the fat lady....... She is singing.

Yes she is, as a matter of fact I think she started singing way back in the beginning of September when it was obvious this was going to be an average to below average season.

[boca]

I'm willing to bet anyone my paycheck that 93L won't make it into the western Caribbean and will probably dissipate in 36 to 48 hours. Folks this is 2006 not 2005, we had a losing battle since August of anything getting past 60W this will not be the exception. Rest in peace 06 I'm ready for 2007.

[lester]

Stick your ear real, real close to your monitor and you will hear the aria from the fat lady....... She is singing.

unfortunately I can't hear her

[AnnularCane]

The fat lady is beginning to get on my nerves. Can't we duct-tape her mouth shut or something?

[fci]

Takes a WHOLE lot of duct tape for HER mouth!!!!

(for Chris)

[cycloneye]

27/1745 UTC 14.2N 58.6W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[loro-rojo]

This season was over ever since it started.

I just wish I would have bet online, before the hurricane season, that no hurricanes were going to make landfall in the 2006 hurricane season. The odds in some sites were like 1-10. I would have made $10 for every dollar bet. Man... wish I had a time machine.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20061027 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061027 1800 061028 0600 061028 1800 061029 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 58.9W 13.8N 61.4W 14.3N 64.5W 15.2N 67.6W
BAMM 13.7N 58.9W 13.9N 61.9W 14.6N 65.1W 15.9N 68.4W
A98E 13.7N 58.9W 14.2N 61.9W 14.5N 64.9W 14.9N 67.8W
LBAR 13.7N 58.9W 14.1N 61.7W 15.3N 64.5W 17.1N 67.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061029 1800 061030 1800 061031 1800 061101 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 70.4W 18.4N 74.7W 19.1N 77.0W 19.5N 78.4W
BAMM 17.3N 71.1W 19.8N 75.4W 21.3N 77.1W 22.0N 77.7W
A98E 15.5N 70.6W 16.2N 75.5W 16.7N 79.8W 17.1N 83.4W
LBAR 18.1N 69.6W 21.3N 71.4W 22.7N 71.6W 24.0N 70.7W
SHIP 44KTS 51KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 44KTS 50KTS 31KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 58.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 55.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Bam models.

[boca]

Yeah right!!!

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

[jdray]

This is the recurve time of year too.

[gatorcane]

Believe it Boca. Just because most of 2006 has been unfavorable west of 60W doesn't mean we can't get something now.....

That track is getting dangerously close to Florida, although there is still time for anything to happen

[gatorcane]

Believe it Boca. Just because most of 2006 has been unfavorable west of 60W doesn't mean we can't get something now.....

That track is getting dangerously close to Florida, although there is still time for anything to happen

The big difference now is that there is NO TUTT low to destroy anything moving into the Caribbean.

I think this is really going to get intersting as the deep reds continue to blow up over the "center"

[boca]

If something does form it would have to stay weak to go west and if it turns into a depression hello N then NE. The deeper the system more chance of a poleward track especially this time of year it wouldn't take much for a north turn. The other point is that93L has to keep moving atleast 10 to 15 mph for not to get caught in a trough to the west.

[gatorcane]

If something does form it would have to stay weak to go west and if it turns into a depression hello N then NE. The deeper the system more chance of a poleward track especially this time of year it wouldn't take much for a north turn. The other point is that93L has to keep moving atleast 10 to 15 mph for not to get caught in a trough to the west.

I posted this a page or so back, but it won't go N and NE no matter how deep. Look at the nice "Bermud-like High" that the GFS thinks will be building in. It's not as strong as a summer-like ridge but enough to keep it going WNW like the models say:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=096hr

[cycloneye]

TSPOD NUMBER.....06-149

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 69W AT 29/1800Z.


Depending on how the system is in organization,they will have a plane available on sunday afternoon.

[gatorcane]

is the "center" to the right of the deep red blowup?