Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

HurricaneBill · #21 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:29 pm

This does not look good for the Philippines. There's no doubt Cimaron is an intense typhoon.

Holy rapid intensification, Batman!

#22 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:33 pm

Wow! I thought that was a picture of Mitch at first.

Anybody else keep reading the name as Cinnamon? :wink:

#23 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:50 pm

At 100kts (920hPa) this is one of the strongest storms of the season for the basin.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 16.0N 124.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 17.5N 122.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 310000UTC 17.7N 119.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 010000UTC 17.1N 117.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT =

Jim Cantore · #24 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:55 pm

Looks like it's exploding, then again, no way to know until it makes landfall.

#25 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:00 pm

Just to show how much this has deepened here is how it was just 24 hours ago.

PSTN 280000UTC 14.3N 128.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT

So a drop of 65hPa in 24 hours.

Jim Cantore · #26 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:02 pm

God help everybody in this monsters path.

How large is it?

#27 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:05 pm

50kt winds within the red circle, 30kt winds within the yellow circle.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0619.html

wxmann_91 · #28 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:43 pm

Good news is that the east coast of northern Luzon is fairly sparsely populated: http://www.whoa.org/publications/maps/01nluzon.jpg

But the central and western parts of Luzon are, and there are many mountains in the area, which should mean that this will be a hefty rain producer.

Chacor · #29 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:07 pm

I'm concerned that PAGASA have only raised Signal No. 2 (Xangsane, 95 kt [or was it 90?] at its JMA peak, forced Signal No. 3) so far. This is not looking good.

#30 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:09 pm

That will be the big problem from Cimaron-heavy rain. Northern Luzon is very mountainous and the rivers drain mostly into Central Luzon except for the ones in the Cagayan Valley which is a valley extending south from Aparri on the North Coast of Luzon. Tuguegarao will be hard hit. The west of coast of Luzon will get the worst as the storm coasts out and the winds go onshore though with a storm this strong downslope drying will limit rainfall east of the Zambales Mountains which are west of old Clark AB. BTW a 24 hour drop of 65 hPa in pressure is not uncommon in this part of WPAC as the Philippine Sea is one of two hotbeds for Supers-the other is E-SE of the Marianas.

Steve

Steve

Ptarmigan · #31 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:31 pm

P.K. wrote:At 100kts (920hPa) this is one of the strongest storms of the season for the basin.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 16.0N 124.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 17.5N 122.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 310000UTC 17.7N 119.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 010000UTC 17.1N 117.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT =

This has to be the most intense Category 3 hurricane on record. 920 mb is very low for one, like Hurricane Katrina.

Chacor · #32 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:34 pm

You have to note that you can't say this is a Cat 3. JMA uses a different wind measurement standard. By the American standards, this would probably be a 4 - JTWC 03Z says 120 kt/922 mbar.

#33 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:36 pm

wow what a difference!

AussieMark · #34 Postby **AussieMark** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:45 pm

remember US is the only agency who use 1 min wind speeds

the worldwide standard is 10 mins

#35 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:48 pm

i still think 1 min is more accurate.

Jim Cantore · #36 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 10:31 pm

I have something most can agree on

1 min or 10, this is still an extremely dangerous storm ether way.

Jim Cantore · #37 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 10:33 pm

Look at this near it's core, almost looks like the Hurricane symbol drawn in black

Ptarmigan · #38 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 10:43 pm

Chacor wrote:You have to note that you can't say this is a Cat 3. JMA uses a different wind measurement standard. By the American standards, this would probably be a 4 - JTWC 03Z says 120 kt/922 mbar.

True. Everyone else uses 10 minutes, while we still use 1 minute. Anyways 920 mb is not something to mess with. :eek:

Jim Cantore · #39 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:03 pm

I wouldn't mess with anything with a pressure that low, this thing is more intense then Andrew (estimated)

Chacor · #40 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:04 pm

Up till now, Yagi was officially the strongest storm this year (910 hPa, 110 kt).

WTPQ20 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 16.2N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 17.5N 122.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
45HF 310000UTC 17.7N 119.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 010000UTC 17.1N 117.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT =

Cimaron is now just 5 kt weaker, but as strong pressure-wise as Yagi. And Yagi didn't threaten land - this one is.

Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

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