Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[tormenta]

Well, ain't this just nifty? I'm going down to the Yucatan on Monday for 3 weeks, to about 20.2N 87.2W. I lived down there for a few years and ran from both Emily and Wilma. After that I decided it was time to move back north and go back to just visiting down there.

I've watched the area closely all season, for my own selfish vacation interests, but also to warn friends there if need be. It's been good that everything has pretty much poofed so far, and maybe this will too.

Life is always interesting, eh?

[Blown Away]

Looks like 93L convection is dissipating tonight. The NW Caribbean appears to have more energy than 93L.

[Opal storm]

Looks like 93L convection is dissipating tonight. The NW Caribbean appears to have more energy than 93L.

Yep right now it just looks like a bunch of clouds racing off to the west.No October surprise happening here.

[AnnularCane]

How much longer till June 1, 2007?

[Rainband]

How much longer till June 1, 2007?

not long enough

[Thunder44]

Convection has increased again early this morning and I see a low to mid level circulation moving W or WNW south of Hispanola on IR-2 imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[Chacor]

5:30 TWO is late...

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

5:30 TWO is late...

Looks like someone didnt set their clock back errrr do you guys set your clock back in Singapore???

Here it is at 5:22AM EST

ABNT20 KNHC 291006
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[Chacor]

Crud, forgot about that - no, we don't use DST.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Yeah, I believe advisories will now be issued (If anymore are issued this season) at 4AM, 10AM, 4PM, and 10PM EST now. OR 6am, 12pm, 6pm, and 12am I dunno, but something changes in the advisories when the time changes.

[Chacor]

Yes, EDT becomes EST, etc.

[senorpepr]

Yeah, I believe advisories will now be issued (If anymore are issued this season) at 4AM, 10AM, 4PM, and 10PM EST now. OR 6am, 12pm, 6pm, and 12am I dunno, but something changes in the advisories when the time changes.

They are still issued at 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, and 21Z.

(For EST, that would be 10pm, 4am, 10am, and 4pm.)

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20061029 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061029 1200 061030 0000 061030 1200 061031 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 72.2W 16.3N 74.8W 17.4N 77.0W 18.3N 78.8W
BAMM 15.2N 72.2W 16.5N 75.1W 17.5N 77.8W 18.4N 79.9W
A98E 15.2N 72.2W 15.9N 76.2W 16.5N 79.5W 17.2N 82.2W
LBAR 15.2N 72.2W 16.7N 75.5W 18.6N 78.1W 20.5N 79.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061031 1200 061101 1200 061102 1200 061103 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 80.1W 19.9N 82.2W 21.4N 82.3W 24.2N 75.8W
BAMM 18.8N 81.4W 19.3N 84.4W 19.6N 86.9W 19.1N 88.4W
A98E 17.6N 84.1W 18.7N 87.3W 19.3N 89.4W 20.1N 90.1W
LBAR 22.3N 80.6W 26.5N 78.5W 30.4N 70.4W 33.0N 60.8W
SHIP 44KTS 53KTS 54KTS 51KTS
DSHP 44KTS 53KTS 54KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 72.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 68.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 64.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

It's moving very fast (21kts) at 280 degrees.

[Chacor]

000
WONT41 KNHC 291307
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2006

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[Blown Away]

Dr. Lyons said there is a small vortex to the SW of the convection. He said it may work its way down to the surface and the shear is lower than it has been in the Caribbean.

[Thunder44]

On visible imagery and a QS pass this morning, there doesn't appear to be closed surface circulation, but there doesn't seem to be much shear over the system. It's fast speed and proximity to Hispanola, are probably what is working against it now.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks better this AM, but I don't see much chance for this being any kind of US threat, models seem to want to turn it NE and possibly develop it out in the western Atlantic, we will see.

[CrazyC83]

I don't see much chance at it developing, BUT that doesn't mean it won't be destructive. A similar system in May 2004 killed over 2,000 people in Haiti.

[dixiebreeze]

updated plot map for 93L:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[dixiebreeze]

This might keep the Bahamas safe, unless it retrogrades pretty quickly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg