Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[gatorcane]

here we go folks and check out the fireworks going on now in the Western Caribbean.

This is it, this is what I have been calling for for a couple of months now. Lets hope the US and islands are spared.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 291617
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[Opal storm]

here we go folks and check out the fireworks going on now in the Western Caribbean.

This is it, this is what I have been calling for for a couple of months now. Lets hope the US and islands are spared.

This is it?This your October surprise?A extremely disorganized open wave with little if any chance for further development is the surprise?

[hurricanefreak1988]

...what the heck was that STDS for? It said nothing that the 11:30 TWO couldn't have told us. I guess they're really getting bored down there in Miami.

[rockyman]

IMO, the only way this system could get into the Gulf would be through the "back door"...going across the Yucatan into the BOC...then getting picked up by yet another front and heading north...there's no way I can see for this system to get to the Gulf via a direct route...across Cuba or the Yucatan Channel...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[cycloneye]

...what the heck was that STDS for? It said nothing that the 11:30 TWO couldn't have told us. I guess they're really getting bored down there in Miami.

The STDS was for alerting the residents of Hispanola of flooding rains and mudslides not that this would develop.

[Opal storm]

IMO, the only way this system could get into the Gulf would be through the "back door"...going across the Yucatan into the BOC...then getting picked up by yet another front and heading north...there's no way I can see for this system to get to the Gulf via a direct route...across Cuba or the Yucatan Channel...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

I agree and some of the models are showing this going west to the Yucatan.This could be another BOC disturbance like the one we saw a few weeks ago if it makes it that far.

[Sanibel]

Another 2006 mid-level disturbance looking like it is coming together but should do like the rest.

[Weatherfreak000]

here we go folks and check out the fireworks going on now in the Western Caribbean.

This is it, this is what I have been calling for for a couple of months now. Lets hope the US and islands are spared.

Well it's no big thing to call for an October storm in the W. Caribbean. But I still don't see anything but a minimal hurricane if this thing is lucky to even develop.


I think it's safe to say this won't be "The Storm". There is always 2007 Floridians. Stay safe.

[gatorcane]

here we go folks and check out the fireworks going on now in the Western Caribbean.

This is it, this is what I have been calling for for a couple of months now. Lets hope the US and islands are spared.

Well it's no big thing to call for an October storm in the W. Caribbean. But I still don't see anything but a minimal hurricane if this thing is lucky to even develop.


I think it's safe to say this won't be "The Storm". There is always 2007 Floridians. Stay safe.

a minimal hurricane is no picnic and would be devastating to south florida. I doubt it would happen though. I think 99% of the people here have stopped paying attention to the tropics.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Well, it only has a couple days to develop if the NHC is still ending the Hurricane season on Oct 31st this year. Most years, I would be actually interested in both 93L and the wave behind it but one must remember...Its 2006/the season of
HUFF
HUFF
HUFF

[dixiebreeze]

The hurricane season ends Nov. 30, not Oct. 31.

[Opal storm]

here we go folks and check out the fireworks going on now in the Western Caribbean.

This is it, this is what I have been calling for for a couple of months now. Lets hope the US and islands are spared.

Well it's no big thing to call for an October storm in the W. Caribbean. But I still don't see anything but a minimal hurricane if this thing is lucky to even develop.


I think it's safe to say this won't be "The Storm". There is always 2007 Floridians. Stay safe.

a minimal hurricane is no picnic and would be devastating to south florida. I doubt it would happen though. I think 99% of the people here have stopped paying attention to the tropics.

South Florida has nothing to worry about over 93L,but like the NHC stated in the TWO there could be deadly flooding and mudslides in the Caribbean.

[fci]

here we go folks and check out the fireworks going on now in the Western Caribbean.

This is it, this is what I have been calling for for a couple of months now. Lets hope the US and islands are spared.

Chris:
Way too much hype, even from you; in this post.

You've been calling for it for a couple of months
Do you also call for systems to develop in the Cape Verde region in August/September?
How about systems in the NW Carib in June/July?
Because this is where storms tend to develop every year climatologically.

I'm being sarcastic but I just can't read someone say that they have been calling for a system in the Western Caribbean in the late season and not call them on it.

And please try to refrain form saying "here we go folks"
It gets tiring....

Disappointed that you did not use an eek in your post too.

[gatorcane]

here we go folks and check out the fireworks going on now in the Western Caribbean.

This is it, this is what I have been calling for for a couple of months now. Lets hope the US and islands are spared.

Chris:
Way too much hype, even from you; in this post.

You've been calling for it for a couple of months
Do you also call for systems to develop in the Cape Verde region in August/September?
How about systems in the NW Carib in June/July?
Because this is where storms tend to develop every year climatologically.

I'm being sarcastic but I just can't read someone say that they have been calling for a system in the Western Caribbean in the late season and not call them on it.

And please try to refrain form saying "here we go folks"
It gets tiring....

Disappointed that you did not use an eek in your post too.

I admit I am overhyping this. There is quite a mess down there right now though.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 292159
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST SUN OCT 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
HISPANIOLA AND A COLD FRONT. OVERALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Sanibel]

Hitting the cold front.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

invest dropped.

[Sanibel]

Lesson of 2006:


POOF

[wxman57]

An old frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean with tropical waves moving through is a prime source of late-season storms. Better keep watching this area for the next few weeks. The later formation occurs, the sharper a northeast track it'll take.