Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

[HURAKAN]

Poor people of Luzon, this is almost the worst nature can throw at you that has this size.

[Jim Cantore]

This looks bad, I imagine the damage will be absolutely horrible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That likely toped near 150 knots, that was almost perfect.

[Coredesat]

This would be that one storm that would make you think someone could budget some amount of money for recon. Dvorak isn't everything.

[Derek Ortt]

Canada has also performed some recon flights

The Atlantic recon is not for scientific purposes. It is to better protect US interests. Recon is not intended for the weather enthusiast to have extra data

[wxmann_91]

Canada has also performed some recon flights

The Atlantic recon is not for scientific purposes. It is to better protect US interests. Recon is not intended for the weather enthusiast to have extra data

Unfortunately the coastlines in the WPAC are only about 10 times more densely populated than in the U.S. Look at Saomai...200 lives could've been saved if the government did their job to protect the peoples.

[Aslkahuna]

The storm came in a bit further south than earlier forecast which meant that landfall was closer to the more populated sections of the coast (a landfall near the original point would have been in a remote sparsely populated area. Landfall was close to Ilagan City (pop. 250000) according to PAGASA with an intensity of 195 km/hr gusting to 230 km/hr. Public Storm signal # 4 (which is rarely issued) for winds of 185 km/hr or higher was issued to the landfall area before the storm came in. Casiguran City, the closest reporting station to the landfall and to the south reported 10-min peak wnds of 90 mph and a pressure of 986 hPa, however, it looks like the wind sensor was damaged since the peak winds occurred well before the min pressure. The storm will coast out soon south of Laoag City on the west coast and west coast stations like Subic, Iba and Dagupan will soon get backlash winds and heavy rainsqualls.

Steve

[HurricaneBill]

This looked frighteningly like Zeb from 1998. JTWC estimates Zeb landfalled with 1-min sustained winds of 155 knots. I know that is debatable, but I'm sure Zeb was very intense at landfall. On satellite view, Zeb had shown no signs of weakening prior to landfall.

[HurricaneBill]

JMA refusing to budge over pressure.

In 10-minute sustained winds, the Category 5 equivalent would be 10-min winds of 120 KT.

The last time JMA had a typhoon at 120 KT (10-min) was Super Typhoon Yuri in 1991.

Looking at the Dvorak scale the JMA uses, a typhoon would need to reach 8.0 to reach Category 5 status.

[P.K.]

This looked frighteningly like Zeb from 1998.

It is down as 110kts (900hPa) in the RSMC Tokyo best track at landfall so they had it slightly stronger than was the case with this storm. http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/yohou/typhoon/data/T9810.png

[HURAKAN]

THE LUZON EFFECT:

BEFORE:


AFTER:

[Brent]

WOW, that thing looked like a monster.

[HURAKAN]

By the way, "Cimaron" is a Philippine word, what an irony, that means "wild ox." Perfect name for such a destructive typhoon.

[JonathanBelles]

wow that wild ox turned in to a cloud of swirling wind and rain.

[wxmann_91]

Here's another image that I made:

[Aslkahuna]

Satellite imagery sghows that the low level center is reforming off the west coast of Luzon. JTWC did a study some years ago about how much Luzon kicked the stuffing out of typhoons. They found that just developing typhoons lost about 20% of their intensity as there was still a goodly amount of the storm's vorticity at H7 and higher whereas a strong typhoon would lose 50% or more of it's intensity since by then the bulk of the vorticity and all of the inflow was at H85 or lower and the mountains of northern Luzon extend well above that level. For storm landfalling north of Dingalan Bay on Luzon, it's like running into a brick wall as there's a solid front of mountains 6-8000 ft high almost along the shore.

Steve

[Jim Cantore]

What a monster

[Jim Cantore]

Typhoon Cimaron kills 3 in Philippines

By PAUL ALEXANDER, Associated Press Writer
28 minutes ago

Typhoon Cimaron blew over the northern Philippines on Monday, felling trees, toppling power lines, blasting roofs off homes and leaving at least three people dead, officials said.

Cimaron, which made landfall late Sunday, is the second typhoon to hit the northern Philippines in as many months and was packing maximum winds of 109 mph and gusts of up to 130 mph.

It was forecast to exit the region in the direction of Vietnam later Monday.

"This is probably one of the strongest typhoons ever to hit the country," Health Secretary Francisco Duqueso said at a news conference aired on Manila radio stations.

Police in Isabela province, about 205 miles northeast of Manila, reported a 29-year-old farmer drowned when his boat overturned amid strong currents. Radio DZBB reported a mother and child were killed in neighboring Aurora province.

Nearly 30 northern and northeastern provinces were placed under a storm alert, school classes and government work were canceled and President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, on a visit to China, called for prayers Sunday. Domestic flights to the north also were canceled.

Although the typhoon did not appear to be drenching the mudslide-prone area as badly as feared, rising rivers made some bridges impassable. Officials said water would be released from two major dams to prevent them from overflowing.

The typhoon threatened commemorations for All Saints' Day on Wednesday, a public holiday when millions travel to cemeteries to remember their dead, some leaving days in advance for outlying provinces. Officials warned people to cancel trips to threatened areas.

"We know in our culture that we should visit our dead, but this is not an ordinary typhoon, it's a super typhoon," a government official, Graciano Yumul, warned.

The last time a typhoon this strong struck the Philippines was in December 2004, although in that case, the storm was deflected by a mountain range and casualties were minimal.

Last month, Typhoon Xangsane left 230 people dead and missing as it ripped through Manila and neighboring provinces.

About 20 typhoon and tropical storms lash the country each year.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061030/ap_on_re_as/asia_typhoon_4&printer=1

[Typhoon Hunter]

At 80kts according to JMA and forecast to get back up to 90kts. Heading in general direciton of central Vietnam:

T0619 (CIMARON)
Issued at 00:00 UTC 30 Oct 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 17.0N 119.8E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM

FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 16.6N 116.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 010000UTC 16.7N 114.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 020000UTC 17.0N 111.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT

[JonathanBelles]

"The last time a typhoon this strong struck the Philippines was in December 2004, although in that case, the storm was deflected by a mountain range and casualties were minimal.

Last month, Typhoon Xangsane left 230 people dead and missing as it ripped through Manila and neighboring provinces.

About 20 typhoon and tropical storms lash the country each year. "

is there no editor?