Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

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P.K.
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#121 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:17 am

A little over yes. (93kts)
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#122 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:10 am

WTJP21 RJTD 311200
WARNING 311200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA
AT 18.3N 116.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 18.4N 115.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 18.7N 114.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 19.1N 112.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#123 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:32 am

Well, the global models seem to agree with JTWC:

Image
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#124 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:32 am

Ouch. Both the JMA and JTWC haven't been doing well with this system, at all.

From WV, it seems that there's a trough amplifying in northeastern China that is picking up Cimaron. Either that trough was underestimated or Cimaron moved slower than expected, thus allowing it the opportunity to get picked up.
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#125 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:35 am

Probably the latter - Cimaron hasn't moved all that much since it exited Luzon.
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#126 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:13 pm

How is Cimaron pronounced exactly?
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#127 Postby AussieMark » Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:05 pm

SEE-MAH-RON
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#128 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:46 pm

Boy was I way off :eek:
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#129 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:35 am

110 kt from NRL now. JMA forecasts gradual weakening, without much movement.
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#130 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:50 am

Cimaron has intensified up to 85kts which is quite remarkable given it's location and the time of year!

Issued at 06:00 UTC 1 Nov 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH

FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 19.0N 116.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 030600UTC 19.1N 115.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 040600UTC 19.1N 115.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
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#131 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 4:21 am

I think a more interesting thing from that advisory is:

ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH

FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 19.0N 116.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 030600UTC 19.1N 115.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 040600UTC 19.1N 115.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
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#132 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 4:37 am

JTWC: 115 kt now. Hong Kong is now right smack in this thing's path. CPA: 4 nm.

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.5N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.2N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.9N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.5N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.9N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.3N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.8N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, THE TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD TO REFLECT AN INCREASE IN FORECAST
INTENSITY, SINCE A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
LESS OF A STEERING INFLUENCE FROM LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z,
012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//

NNNN

Image
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#133 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 01, 2006 6:47 am

Typhoon Cimaron leaves 19 dead in Philippines

Manila, Nov.1 (AP): Typhoon Cimaron left 19 people dead mostly in drowning and landslides, injured 58 others and damaged more than 5,000 houses in the Philippines' mountainous north before blowing out of the country, officials said Wednesday.

Fifteen other people remained missing after the typhoon departed Tuesday from the country's northern Luzon island, where it caused floods, triggered landslides and knocked out power in hundreds of farm villages, the National Disaster Coordinating Council said.

The typhoon affected nearly 283,000 people in the north and damaged 443 million pesos (US$8.8 million, euro6.93 million) worth of crops, livestock, roads, bridges and school buildings, it said.

Despite problems wrought by the typhoon, many villagers in the north commemorated All Saints' Day on Wednesday, a public holiday when millions travel to cemeteries nationwide to remember their dead. Officials have warned people to cancel trips to typhoon-hit northern areas.

Source:
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/00 ... 011201.htm
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#134 Postby Gorky » Wed Nov 01, 2006 7:38 am

Coredesat wrote:Well, the global models seem to agree with JTWC:

Image


Gotta love the model (dis)agreement on this storm now!!
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#135 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:03 am

uhhh Is this thing even moving? Doesn't look any different from last night.
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#136 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:14 am

Nope, not really.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 19.0N 115.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 031200UTC 19.1N 115.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 041200UTC 19.1N 115.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
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#137 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:04 am

Can't believe it's still intensifying! Crazy!

659
TPPN10 KGWC 011220
A. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON)
B. 01/1011Z (102)
C. 18.9N/8
D. 116.4E/2
E. ONE/DMSP
F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS -01/0531Z-
G. WX5548/49437/AMI/N

08/ PBO ON SMALL RGD EYE ON 85H DATA.

H. CENTER WAS 3.0 DEGREES EAST OF NADIR.

I. GALE WIND RADIUS ANAL: BOUNDARY COMPASS POINTS.

DRCTN DSTC-NM LAT LONG

1. N 135 21.2N 116.0E
2. NE 115 20.5N 117.7E CONTAMINATED BY CNVCTN
3. E 95 19.2N 118.2E
4. SE 65 18.3N 117.4E
5. S 65 17.9N 116.7E
6. SW 75 18.0N 115.8E
7. W 90 18.7N 114.9E
8. NW 105 20.0N 114.9E

LAING/KRAMER

Gale radius is nudging towards Hong Kong slowly (HK - Latitude:, 22° 17', North. Longitude:, 114° 08', East) My Dad is there at the moment so if he reports anything interesting I'll post it here.
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#138 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:06 am

Damn I hate it when a TC is stuck in a col area. Apparently this did not weaken as much as expected, and also, the trough to the north amplified a little more than expected. Definitely a very tricky situation.
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#139 Postby P.K. » Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:29 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 18.9N 116.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 18.9N 115.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 031800UTC 18.9N 115.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 041800UTC 18.8N 115.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
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#140 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 02, 2006 8:18 am

Now barely a typhoon, at 65 kt.
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