Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 01/0951 UTC 2006 UTC.
**********CORRECTION TO POSITION**********************
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.9S 179.2E
AT 010600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT/IR IMAGE WITH ANIMATION, RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM LLCC AND IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT. 03F LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL [250HPA] RIDGE IN AN AREA
OF DIFFLUENT FLOW. CIMMS SHOWS THAT THERE IS 20-30 KNOT WIND SHEAR
ALOFT AND INDICATES A DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY OVER THE SYSTEM. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT CAPTURED THIS SYSTEM.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 03F
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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 01/2324 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 173.9E
AT 012100 UTC MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND
28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
RECENT VIS IMAGES SHOW THAT 03F MAY BE EXPOSED AND LIES FURTHER WEST
COMPARED TO THE 1800 UTC POSITION BUT IS DIFFICULT TO GIVE A MORE
EXACT LOCATION AT THIS STAGE. A CONVECTIVE BLOB LIES TO THE EAST OF
THE LLCC AND SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ALOFT. BECAUSE IT IS NOT TOO DEEP A SYSTEM, 03F IS BEING
STEERED STEADILY WESTWARD BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND LIES SOUTH OF
AN UPPER LEVEL [250HPA] RIDGE IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW. CIMMS
SHOWS THAT THERE IS 20-30 KNOT WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND INDICATES A
DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY OVER THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE
NOT CAPTURED THIS SYSTEM BUT SEEM TO PLACE A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY
INSTEAD.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
Weakened.
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 01/2324 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 173.9E
AT 012100 UTC MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND
28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
RECENT VIS IMAGES SHOW THAT 03F MAY BE EXPOSED AND LIES FURTHER WEST
COMPARED TO THE 1800 UTC POSITION BUT IS DIFFICULT TO GIVE A MORE
EXACT LOCATION AT THIS STAGE. A CONVECTIVE BLOB LIES TO THE EAST OF
THE LLCC AND SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ALOFT. BECAUSE IT IS NOT TOO DEEP A SYSTEM, 03F IS BEING
STEERED STEADILY WESTWARD BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND LIES SOUTH OF
AN UPPER LEVEL [250HPA] RIDGE IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW. CIMMS
SHOWS THAT THERE IS 20-30 KNOT WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND INDICATES A
DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY OVER THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE
NOT CAPTURED THIS SYSTEM BUT SEEM TO PLACE A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY
INSTEAD.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
Weakened.
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