Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

Chacor · #141 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Nov 02, 2006 10:55 am

Downgraded to STS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 18.9N 116.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 18.6N 116.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 041200UTC 18.5N 115.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 051200UTC 18.1N 114.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT =

#142 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Thu Nov 02, 2006 4:10 pm

Notheast Monsoon wins again. Happens all of the time in the northern portions of the SCS this time of year.

Steve

Chacor · #143 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 2:06 am

JTWC 00Z: 25 kt gusting 35, dissipating as a significant TC over water.

JMA 06Z:

WTPQ20 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 15.8N 115.8E FAIR
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 15.6N 115.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 060600UTC 15.4N 114.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 070600UTC 15.1N 113.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT =

:eek:

Coredesat · #144 Postby **Coredesat** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 2:47 am

The other agencies have this dissipating in 24 hours. No idea why JMA is keeping it.

#145 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 7:24 am

Maybe this is one of the reasons, not sure. It was deepening it a little more than that last night.

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619)
PSTN 040600UTC 15.8N 115.8E
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 40KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 15.3N 115.6E -002HPA +009KT
T=12 14.8N 115.3E -005HPA +012KT
T=18 14.4N 114.8E -004HPA +010KT
T=24 14.2N 114.2E -006HPA +008KT
T=30 13.8N 113.8E -006HPA +009KT
T=36 13.4N 113.3E -004HPA +007KT
T=42 13.1N 112.7E -002HPA +006KT
T=48 12.8N 112.2E -002HPA +003KT
T=54 12.5N 111.7E 000HPA +004KT
T=60 12.1N 111.2E 000HPA +005KT
T=66 11.8N 110.5E +001HPA +006KT
T=72 11.5N 109.8E +002HPA +003KT
T=78 11.4N 109.1E +006HPA -001KT
T=84 11.4N 108.0E +008HPA -009KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Chacor · #146 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 7:52 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 15.9N 115.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 15.4N 115.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
48HF 061200UTC 15.0N 114.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
72HF 071200UTC 14.6N 113.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT =

Chacor · #147 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 9:10 am

JTWC has issued final warning.

#148 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 4:46 pm

The NE Monsoon always wins out against typhoons.

Steve

Jim Cantore · #149 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 9:31 pm

Looking at it now, hard to believe what it once was not to far from it's current location

Chacor · #150 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Nov 05, 2006 8:51 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 15.1N 114.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 14.5N 113.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Still alive from JMA...

Chacor · #151 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Nov 05, 2006 8:53 am

Wow, has the JTWC lost it?

053
TPPN10 PGTW 051223
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CIMARON (FORMER 22W)
B. 05/1130Z
C. 14.5N/0
D. 114.5E/1
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (05/1130Z)
G. IR/EIR
LLCC
38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .60 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL FOR
AN

UNREP DT OF 3.0. AN UNREP MET EQUALS 2.5. DBO PT OF 2.0.
SYSTEM

HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAST 06 HOURS.

Getting interesting...

#152 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sun Nov 05, 2006 4:40 pm

There has been a burst of convection near the center which has moved far enough south that it may be getting free of the unfavorable environment of the NE Monsoon. Same thing sometimes happens to EPAC storms that get steered in the low level flow away from the colder water after they become remnant Lows. Also remember Norman in EPAC and Ivan 2004. The lower latitude portions of the SCS are not unfavorable this time of year, only about 18N and higher.

Steve

Coredesat · #153 Postby **Coredesat** » Sun Nov 05, 2006 5:08 pm

Indeed, it looks like it may yet live once more.

13.9N 114.1E T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS CIMARON (22W)
.
REMARKS....CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. LIMITED CONVECTION
MEASURES 0.2 RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 2.5 WHILE PT IS
2.0. FT BASED ON PT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 06/0400Z.

#154 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Nov 05, 2006 7:49 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 14N 114E
MOVE SSW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA

Jim Cantore · #155 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sun Nov 05, 2006 11:30 pm

Hard to believe, it made landfall 7 days ago, look how far it's gone.

Chacor · #156 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Nov 06, 2006 5:16 am

Well, if you believe the JMA's weather chart, it's still a weak TD in the SCS.

Chacor · #157 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Nov 06, 2006 9:29 am

LOW 1012 HPA AT 58N 172E EAST 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 13N 115E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 149E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 44N 160E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 45N 179E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Bye-bye! :blowup:

HurricaneBill · #158 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Nov 06, 2006 11:01 pm

Still gonna bring some heavy rain to Vietnam.

Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

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