C/SC Texas weather thread - a cold, wet Easter

[Portastorm]

Going to be interesting to see if that cut-off low develops and moves into SE Texas early this coming week. If so, we may end up on the west side and limited precip. Regardless, looks like we have a wet start to the week in store for us in C/SC Texas.

[Portastorm]

And indeed that is what has happened ... other than a few rumbles of thunder and spits of rain here and there, this event has been a "is that all there is?" event. As of 9 am Monday morning, looks like the best dynamics are east of us so I wouldn't expect much more rain in the Hill Country or Austin areas.

Election Day should be warm and nice ... and it stays that way until late in the week.

[Kelarie]

All I saw was one lighting strike and had a few splatters of rain, and that was it. I was hoping for a lot more. To the north and south of us, they were getting rain, to what appeared in buckets (I know a real scientific term).

I just want to know when the first blue norther' is coming down, I know probably not this year. We will probably have a really nice 70's induced temp, with rain. Ugh. Sounds depressing. Maybe I need to move north, way north.

[double D]

Saw a nice rainbow this morning, but did not get one drop of rain in Fredericksburg. I guess it will be time to start watering the lawn this week since we missed out on the last couple of rains.

[Portastorm]

Saw a nice rainbow this morning, but did not get one drop of rain in Fredericksburg. I guess it will be time to start watering the lawn this week since we missed out on the last couple of rains.

I'm sure our friends in SE Texas would ship some our way, if they could!

[JenBayles]

I'd love some of that rain - my little area of w. Houston missed out on the last 2 systems so I've been watering like mad. Will be heading back to Fredericksburg on Thursday. The original plan was to camp at Pedernales Falls State Park, but so many people bailed out, we decided to go back to the Hog Stop Inn. They're nice enough to accommodate the dogs, we figured it would be more comfortable there. Can't wait to get back to the Hill Country. Y'all are so lucky to live out there!

[double D]

All I saw was one lighting strike and had a few splatters of rain, and that was it. I was hoping for a lot more. To the north and south of us, they were getting rain, to what appeared in buckets (I know a real scientific term).

I just want to know when the first blue norther' is coming down, I know probably not this year. We will probably have a really nice 70's induced temp, with rain. Ugh. Sounds depressing. Maybe I need to move north, way north.

I've been wondering the same thing too. Although we have had some beautiful weather lately, I would like to have a good cold blast and get a chance to crank up the fireplace for the first time this year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

All I saw was one lighting strike and had a few splatters of rain, and that was it. I was hoping for a lot more. To the north and south of us, they were getting rain, to what appeared in buckets (I know a real scientific term).

I just want to know when the first blue norther' is coming down, I know probably not this year. We will probably have a really nice 70's induced temp, with rain. Ugh. Sounds depressing. Maybe I need to move north, way north.

I've been wondering the same thing too. Although we have had some beautiful weather lately, I would like to have a good cold blast and get a chance to crank up the fireplace for the first time this year.

speaking of blue northers..you might want to check this one out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_11/11/11_cold_wave

A temperature drop of over 60F in just 14 hours is almost hard to believe!

As for us locally here in TX, I think we will get one this year. A little patience and winter will be here before you know it with many chilly days ahead. Who knows, may be we will even see a winter storm or two before the season is through (I hope). It would sure be nice if we did..

[Portastorm]

Nothing like that imminent on the horizon, I'm afraid.

It seems like in the last week or so every time the GFS or Euro suggests some nice cold air plunging south, the subsequent run will back off on the scenario.

But heck, it's just early November ... we haven't even begun our cold weather season potential!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nothing like that imminent on the horizon, I'm afraid.

It seems like in the last week or so every time the GFS or Euro suggests some nice cold air plunging south, the subsequent run will back off on the scenario.

But heck, it's just early November ... we haven't even begun our cold weather season potential!

JB keeps speaking of major cold coming into the west and plains next week though, so let's hope he is right! There are only so many hot, humid days my body (and mind) can handle in November, and after a potential warm end to this week, I will really be wanting some refreshment by next week.

[double D]

Maybe we will get our warm weather out of the way in early November and we will (-removed-) get a cold blast for Thanksgiving. I don't know about ya'll but the cold air just seems to make the food taste that much better on Thanksgiving day.
(maybe I'm just hungry)

BTW, the GFS seems to at least show some cold air building in western Canada around the 15th of the month. So maybe JB is on to something, but the way the pattern has been lately I wouldn't be surprised that most of the cold air doesn't go east of us.

[Portastorm]

Well if you look at tonight's Euro (12z run), there is a fairly large and significant trough over the nation's midsection by next Monday:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

Meanwhile the GFS is less bullish on this idea per its 12z run:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfs ... mp_168.gif


So ... in essence, go figure! Yes EWG, I have been reading JB's comments about next week. I hope he is on to something ... would like some cold weather again instead of this warm, muggy stuff.

[PTrackerLA]

I've also been reading JB talk about things turning cold over much of the nation next week but this week will definately be warm. I have a feeling within the next 2 weeks we'll see a big arctic blast that will give us our first freeze of the year given all the cold building in Canada. We shall see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I've also been reading JB talk about things turning cold over much of the nation next week but this week will definately be warm. I have a feeling within the next 2 weeks we'll see a big arctic blast that will give us our first freeze of the year given all the cold building in Canada. We shall see.

that would be nice. I would enjoy seeing some morning frost on the roof tops again in time for Thanksgiving.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW: Check out JB's evening post. He gives analogs as to how this El Nino is playing out. If these same analogs unfold through the winter, then it could be a cold one indeed!

Here is a look at a few of the major events during his analog years:

1969-1970
[January 70'] Winter storm hits the state. Freezing rain and ice is reported all the way to SE Texas.

1976-1977
[November 76'] An unprecendented early winter weather event strikes Texas. Ice is reported in Houston on Nov. 28th and 29th.

[January 77'] Winter storm hits the state (TX). Freezing rain and ice is reported all the way to SE Texas.

[January 77'] Snow falls in Miami for the only time in History. The high never gets out of the 30s as far south as Orlando (with up to 2" of snow in west central FL). This was a truly amazing occurance, and it was the snowiest day in central and southern Florida since 1899.

1977 - 1978
[January 78'] A prolonged freeze hits the state (TX). Many areas are below freezing for days (65 hours in Houston).

[January 78'] Winter storm hits the state (TX). Freezing rain and ice is reported all the way to SE Texas.

[January 78'] Winter storm hits the state (TX). Snow falls all the way to Houston where 0.4" accumulates.

**I am sure that these events in TX were likely just as cold/violent in other areas of the south as well**


So in summary... If these analogs continue to unfold, then it looks like our winter could easily turn out to be chilly and full of winter precip. chances! Could get real interesting this year (I hope)!

[Portastorm]

EWG ... thanks for that research. Very interesting stuff and certainly something to be excited about.

I'm all for winter weather events as long as I get to keep my power! Unfortunately I reside in a power grid in Austin that seems to fail if a squirrel drops an acorn on a power line!!

[Portastorm]

You know if there's any justice in the weather world (and we know there's not), then we're due for some cooler-than-average temps and above-average precip.

Take a look at our averages for the last 12 months.

Temperature

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/re ... ank_pg.gif

Precipitation

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/re ... ank_pg.gif

As you can see, other than SE Texas' above-average precip anamoly, the state of Texas has been above to much above average in temps and below average in precip.

I just thought this was interesting and passed it along.

[double D]

EWG ... thanks for that research. Very interesting stuff and certainly something to be excited about.

I'm all for winter weather events as long as I get to keep my power! Unfortunately I reside in a power grid in Austin that seems to fail if a squirrel drops an acorn on a power line!!

I agree Portastorm, having the power go off when it's cold outside is no fun. That is why I don't get excited over ice storms, now snow is a different story.

BTW, some of the mets on other weather boards agree with JB that it is going to be pretty cold in the west and central parts of the country. Hopefully that air will make it's way down in the heart of Texas. (oh and yes EWG, southeast Texas too.)

[PTrackerLA]

FWIW, the latest GFS run shows it getting very cold for the deep south next weekend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, the latest GFS run shows it getting very cold for the deep south next weekend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

that's actually as early as next Wednesday for TX. Also, that is surely one amazing front for mid November! The 540 line makes it all the way to Galveston and the gulf coast! Could you imagine if this played out?

If it does happen, then it may be a sign of what's to come this winter...