SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[JenBayles]

I'm with you Extreme - what a disappointment, huh? The Dome held on the last round of storms - plenty of noise, but only a few drops of rain. Getting darker again and I see radar indicates more storms trying to work in. Bet the Dome holds again!

Yankee - where you at today? I figured you'd be chiming in today. Did you get caught in the RoadRunner outage for a while like I did?

[KatDaddy]

We made it home to League City from Dallas at 1:30PM. We ran into some heavy rains between Madisonville and Huntsville. We saw flooding along a creek in New Waverly. Looks like they got hit pretty hard. Temp was setting at 62F near Conroe and 75F downtown. Quite a contrast.

[JenBayles]

That creek (is it Caney creek?) in New Waverly is notorious for flooding. Glad you made it throught OK KatDaddy!

[KatDaddy]

Glad to be home. I am not sure it was Caney Creek. It looked to be a smaller stream than creek but it was definitely flooding with water up the feeder.

[vbhoutex]

Jen, I think your dome may have expanded. We just had a shower, but that is it. Lots of noise to our East as downtown gets pounded. So far today, a whole 0.04" of the wet stuff.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well after seeing forecasted temps. rise to about 80F for the upcoming weekend, it looks like the NWS has changed their tune yet again. Latest forecasts keep us in the low to mid 70s for highs for Sat/Sun, and there is even a chance we may see cooler than that. The latest forecast from Beaumont for instance calls for a high of 70F on Sunday.

BTW, the latest (12Z) GFS has joined the thinking of the EURO and JB and now shows quite an arctic blast heading down the plains next week.

Check out what it is showing for next Wednesday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

Next Thursday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^ Yes, that's right, it is showing BELOW 0C 850mb temps. in Houston with the 540 thickness line reaching Galveston!^^

Next Friday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

We will need to watch how this unfolds in future runs, but as of now, if the GFS is correct...it will be time to pull out the parkas and gloves in about a week! Highs below 50F and lows below 32F would not even be that unheard of in a situation such as what the GFS is showing.

[Portastorm]

Yeah EWG, should that 12z run verify ... according to the computer numbers I saw ... your area would have highs near 50 and lows in the lower 30s! Wouldn't that be something for mid November!!

[vbhoutex]

A quick look(I don't have time for more, stealing this look) makes me say BBBBBBBBRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!! IF that verifies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

models will not hold up as bulk of cold air slides east just as it reaches the Red River.

GFS Models are GREAT science fiction reading!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

models will not hold up as bulk of cold air slides east just as it reaches the Red River.

GFS Models are GREAT science fiction reading!!

I'm not so sure that will happen this time though. This time the cold is building much further west in Canada and will likely surge south further west in the U.S. as well.

Time will tell I guess..

BTW, here is a look at the current temps. in Canada:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/globa ... ature.html

[Portastorm]

I read something this morning about the 12z GFS ensembles also showing this cold air building further west. So it's not just the operational GFS that is hinting at a pattern change by mid November.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Obviously the NWS in Houston doesn't understand the difference between a canadian and pacific front. (j/k of course) Pacific fronts certainly do not bring freezes to Houston in November that's for sure (what the current GFS is showing). Seems like they are just playing it safe for now, which I admit is probably the smartest thing to do ATM, but there is a chance that they may really be underestimating next weeks situation when it is all said and done.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CST TUE NOV 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BENIGN WEATHER...PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL NIGHTS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH OVER
SOUTH TEXAS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SSE AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS WINDS GO
CALM AND TEMPERATURES RADIATE DOWN...MAY HAVE HAD ENOUGH MIXING
TODAY TO LIMIT THE THREAT BUT IF NOT THEN FOG COULD EASILY REDEVELOP
OVER THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A COLUMBUS TO GROVETON LINE. PRESSURES
FALLING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES (NOT BUCKLING
THE FLOW HERE SEVERELY) AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A CAPPED AND MOISTURE STARVED
FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...CURRENT SUITE IS MORE ADAMANT THAT THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOT COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT UNTIL
SUNDAY NOON. ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO COME
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY OR PERHAPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

Either way though, it looks like an interesting week is on tap, and it also looks like the front this weekend is becoming more and more likely (and looking cooler as well). Should be interesting to see how things actually end up playing out...

[PTrackerLA]

Seems like the forecasts change every day this time of year, probably further enhanced by the weak El Nino occuring right now too. Hopefully this weekend is colder than predicted after this warm week.

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah EWG, should that 12z run verify ... according to the computer numbers I saw ... your area would have highs near 50 and lows in the lower 30s! Wouldn't that be something for mid November!!

Mid November has seen cold weather in the past.

Houston November Daily Extremes

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah EWG, should that 12z run verify ... according to the computer numbers I saw ... your area would have highs near 50 and lows in the lower 30s! Wouldn't that be something for mid November!!

Mid November has seen cold weather in the past.

Houston November Daily Extremes

very true, those highs in the lower 40s back in the 70s were very cold for mid November. However, highs below the lower 50s seem to be quite rare before late month, and that is why if the GFS number of 50F was correct...it would be quite an amazing event.

[ROCK]

wow, if that GFS run verifies then I will need to turn on the heater for sure.....We keep dropping like this who knows what Dec will bring. Anyone done research comparing this year to 04 when we had the x-mas snow? Cool to see what Nov temps were back then compared to todays.....

[Ptarmigan]

wow, if that GFS run verifies then I will need to turn on the heater for sure.....We keep dropping like this who knows what Dec will bring. Anyone done research comparing this year to 04 when we had the x-mas snow? Cool to see what Nov temps were back then compared to todays.....

Here's November 2004 records from
IAH November 2004
GLS November 2004

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, if that GFS run verifies then I will need to turn on the heater for sure.....We keep dropping like this who knows what Dec will bring. Anyone done research comparing this year to 04 when we had the x-mas snow? Cool to see what Nov temps were back then compared to todays.....

Here's November 2004 records from
IAH November 2004
GLS November 2004

wow, that is surprisingly similar to what our recent late October/early November pattern has been. However, I have a feeling this November may end up colder than that. The coldest low during Nov. 2004 was 39F...this year, however, I think we will see a freeze (or close to one) at IAH before the start of December.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I also want to point out that the 18Z GFS is continuing this chilly trend:

WED
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

THURS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

BTW: Tonight is a little cooler than I expected. I am already in the mid 50s with fog and mist, and the moisture really makes it chilly to be outside. Great night for "seeing your breath".

[Ptarmigan]

wow, that is surprisingly similar to what our recent late October/early November pattern has been. However, I have a feeling this November may end up colder than that. The coldest low during Nov. 2004 was 39F...this year, however, I think we will see a freeze (or close to one) at IAH before the start of December.

I would like to see November of 1983 and 1989 because December in those years were the coldest on record in Houston. December 1983 had big freezes around Christmas. December 1989 had a bunch of cold snaps including single digits and snow on December 22, 1989.