SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00Z GFS still shows a strong front next week but is MUCH more progressive with it and not quite as cold. These swings in exact details can be expected at this 8+ day time frame, but the fact that the model is still showing "something" means the trend toward colder next week still looks to be on.

We will have to see how tomorrow's next 3 model runs turn out...

[Miztiki]

I use wunderground and my zip is 77581. Did they screw up and use radar from some other time, or just not update their forecast?

It says mostly clear with patchy fog for the overnight hours, then partly cloudy tomorrow, but the current radar shows anything but clear weather. I see yellow and red, and even purple (extreme) all around me.

Have they really dropped the ball in tonight's forecast, or do they have a radar map up from some other day?

Current time is 2:30 am. Thanks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

6Z GFS also continues the trend, and actually is a little less progressive and a little colder than the 0Z:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

[Portastorm]

And the Day 7 Euro from the 0z run would suggest cold air is on the way for us later next week. If you check out this model run at Day 7, notice how once the trough passes Texas there is a bundle of cold air right behind it ready to come down!

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

[JenBayles]

Bring it on!

[double D]

It would be nice if our progressive pattern would slow down a bit so we could enjoy the cool weather more than a day or two.

I guess we will have to wait for that pacific jet stream to relax a little before that happens.

[CaptinCrunch]

Pacific front this weekend will drop temps to seasonal or just slighty below for NTX, forecasted high for Saturday here in D/FW is 66, but will warm back into the lower 70's by Monday. The next cold front should come down around the 17th and drop high temps back into the lower 60's maybe the upper 50's for the counties to the N and the NE parts of NTX.

However the cold air looks to make it into the SE part of the Country with high's in the mid to lower 50's as far south as Jackson MS, and maybe Mobile AL. Cold air will not last long (36 hrs) as system quickly moves to the NE.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

wow, that is surprisingly similar to what our recent late October/early November pattern has been. However, I have a feeling this November may end up colder than that. The coldest low during Nov. 2004 was 39F...this year, however, I think we will see a freeze (or close to one) at IAH before the start of December.

I would like to see November of 1983 and 1989 because December in those years were the coldest on record in Houston. December 1983 had big freezes around Christmas. December 1989 had a bunch of cold snaps including single digits and snow on December 22, 1989.

single digits(7 degrees,dec. 1989) at then intercontinental airport

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the latest few (warmer) runs of the GFS are flawed. They seem to be bottling up the cold to the north too much (not something that should happen based on the overall scenario I am hearing). I am sure this will change in coming days, but for now I don't think anyone should assume next week will not be a potentially cold one.

[double D]

I think the latest few (warmer) runs of the GFS are flawed. They seem to be bottling up the cold to the north too much (not something that should happen based on the overall scenario I am hearing). I am sure this will change in coming days, but for now I don't think anyone should assume next week will not be a potentially cold one.

Yeah I noticed that the 18z run is a lot warmer that the previous runs. It wants to hang on to a strong zonal flow which is not going to allow cold air to come south.

Is JB still calling for cold next week?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the latest few (warmer) runs of the GFS are flawed. They seem to be bottling up the cold to the north too much (not something that should happen based on the overall scenario I am hearing). I am sure this will change in coming days, but for now I don't think anyone should assume next week will not be a potentially cold one.

Yeah I noticed that the 18z run is a lot warmer that the previous runs. It wants to hang on to a strong zonal flow which is not going to allow cold air to come south.

Is JB still calling for cold next week?

yes, and the other models are too. The EURO and JMA both show a strong arctic blast by next Wed/Thurs. Also, and more importantly, the GFS ensembles (spaghetti plot) are showing it getting quite cold too. I just took a look at the ensembles, and many of them showed the 0C 850mb line reaching Houston next week (and a few even brought the -5C line close). I am not quite sure why the main model and the ensembles are so different, but it is certainly noteworthy that the other variations of the same exact model show such a cold scenario. It looks like the colder scenarios still outweigh the warmer ones for next week. However, the local NWS offices usually do not buy into anything until the actual operational GFS does, so we may have to wait awhile to see any major changes in the extended forecast.

We should know more by the weekend...let's just hope this doesn't end up turning into nothing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, the GFS flips again! the new 0Z run is much cooler than the 12Z and 18Z runs:

THURS AFTERNOON:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

FRI AFTERNOON:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

Now this is nowehre near as cold as the runs were a couple of days ago, but this is still a step back toward a cooler look.

UPDATE: The 6Z run is even colder, and now it once again is bringing the 0C 850mb line and the 540 thickness line all the way down to Houston!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

we are on the edge of a slight severe risk for tomorrow:

...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY REGION...

SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS E OF SURFACE LOW
AND ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE INTO SRN MO. THE MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS DURING THE DAY. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOW AN EML HAS ADVECTED INTO W TX. THIS WARM LAYER WILL
SPREAD EAST ABOVE MOIST AXIS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE THIS WILL
SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO
SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCAPE WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY TO
BELOW 800 J/KG FARTHER NE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF NERN KS INTO
NRN MO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG NERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP AND WITHIN
ZONE OF ASCENT N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FARTHER S OVER ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXPECT
INITIATION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SEWD MOVING FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITHIN MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
GIVEN EXPECTED CAP...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO FRONTAL
ZONE IN THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF AR WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.

[double D]

Well, the GFS flips again! the new 0Z run is much cooler than the 12Z and 18Z runs:

THURS AFTERNOON:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

FRI AFTERNOON:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

Now this is nowehre near as cold as the runs were a couple of days ago, but this is still a step back toward a cooler look.

UPDATE: The 6Z run is even colder, and now it once again is bringing the 0C 850mb line and the 540 thickness line all the way down to Houston!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

Now if we can get some consistent runs, I will feel better about it being chilly next week. The GFS has been all over the place lately.

[vbhoutex]

Well, the GFS flips again! the new 0Z run is much cooler than the 12Z and 18Z runs:

THURS AFTERNOON:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

FRI AFTERNOON:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

Now this is nowehre near as cold as the runs were a couple of days ago, but this is still a step back toward a cooler look.

UPDATE: The 6Z run is even colder, and now it once again is bringing the 0C 850mb line and the 540 thickness line all the way down to Houston!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

Looks to me like it is taking the bulk of the cold air to our East. Without looking at any other models or runs I see a short lived cool down or what I call a backsider.

[Johnny]

Yep, most of this cold air will move off to the east with a normal cool down for us here in Southeast, Texas.

[Yankeegirl]

THe cold air always goes to the east... not fair!!! lol...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think it is going east of us by that much (if at all) this time. In fact, I think the plains may be the bullseye of next weeks cold surge...

For instance, the 12Z GFS shows the chilly air spilling right down the plains into TX first, and then moving east with time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^WED morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^THURS morning^^

**BTW, I also think the GFS may be a bit too progressive with this. We will have to watch this closely to see if it actually moves out as fast as it shows it doing.**

The 12Z ECMWF is also showing the same thing:

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/restric ... 50_7d.html

So based on the latest models and the general trend...I think this will be more of a rush down the plains instead of a typical rush to our east. JB also agrees with this as he thinks the west and plains will get colder first before the east with this system.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm not the only one thinking that the cold air will not make it this far south. GFS is not taking the strenght of zonal flow into consideration and want's to push the cold air into the deep south.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CST THU NOV 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODEST SW FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS KANSAS WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH UNTIL IT REACHES THE EXTREME E/SE
PARTS OF THE CWA. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...HAVE BUMPED
THE HIGH TEMPS UP FOR THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO 850 TEMPS
APPROACHING 20 C AND PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. THIS WILL PUT WACO VERY
CLOSE TO THEIR 95 YEAR OLD RECORD HIGH OF 88 FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN BY EVENING.

PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL SEND RIPPLES THROUGH IN
RAPID SUCCESSION THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. FOR
NOW...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS TIME-FRAME FEATURES THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE DECENT MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. INCREASED POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE MOISTURE
EAST WITH IT LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE SECOND
WAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD COME ACROSS DRY. COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND SHOWED JUST SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST
TUESDAY AND DRY THEREAFTER.

12Z GFS LOOKS ODD WITH THE LARGE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND PREFER TO FOLLOW THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET PROGS OF THE
UPPER PATTERN. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CANADIAN AIR TO REMAIN
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH...WITH A FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THUS...KEPT THE TEMPS TUE-THU
IN LINE WITH 0Z MEX MOS AND INHERITED FORECAST.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not the only one thinking that the cold air will not make it this far south. GFS is not taking the strenght of zonal flow into consideration and want's to push the cold air into the deep south.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CST THU NOV 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODEST SW FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS KANSAS WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH UNTIL IT REACHES THE EXTREME E/SE
PARTS OF THE CWA. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...HAVE BUMPED
THE HIGH TEMPS UP FOR THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO 850 TEMPS
APPROACHING 20 C AND PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. THIS WILL PUT WACO VERY
CLOSE TO THEIR 95 YEAR OLD RECORD HIGH OF 88 FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE CLOUDY AND COOL...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN BY EVENING.

PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL SEND RIPPLES THROUGH IN
RAPID SUCCESSION THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. FOR
NOW...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS TIME-FRAME FEATURES THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE DECENT MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. INCREASED POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE MOISTURE
EAST WITH IT LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE SECOND
WAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD COME ACROSS DRY. COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND SHOWED JUST SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST
TUESDAY AND DRY THEREAFTER.

12Z GFS LOOKS ODD WITH THE LARGE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND PREFER TO FOLLOW THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET PROGS OF THE
UPPER PATTERN. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CANADIAN AIR TO REMAIN
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH...WITH A FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THUS...KEPT THE TEMPS TUE-THU
IN LINE WITH 0Z MEX MOS AND INHERITED FORECAST.

NWS offices tend to rely on models too heavily. For instance, a few days ago they were forecasting 70s in Dallas this weekend, however, now they are forecasting low to mid 60s.

JB on the other hand (who relies more on the "pattern as a whole" and not just models), has been saying for almost a week now that the forecasted highs in the 70s would bust in Dallas this weekend...and it looks like he will end up being right. If he was right with that, I see no reason why he would end up being dead wrong in his thinking that cold, canadian air is coming down the plains next week.

For now I am still going to agree with his thinking and see what happens. He was right last year about mid 30s for highs in north Houston (which he emailed me 2-3 days in advance) in early December, so I have faith that he will be right this time (especially since the 12Z models also back up his ideas).

We should know more about will really happen by this weekend..

I just hope it doesn't end up being a bust. I am ready for some real chilly air!