Tropical Depression Chebi - spinning down in South China Sea

wxmann_91 · #21 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:13 am

Six hours ago JT had it at 55 kt.

Now, 115 kt.

And SSD has no floater on it.

Chacor · #22 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:14 am

JTWC satfix:

886
TPPN10 PGTW 100628
A. TYPHOON 23W (CHEBI)
B. 10/0530Z
C. 16.1N/8
D. 125.5E/3
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D2.5/06HRS (10/0530Z)
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC
07A/PBO SMALL IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW 12NM IRREG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
RING YIELDS AN UNREP DT OF 6.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR EYE
ADJUSTMENT. MET EQUALS AN UNREP 3.5, AND PT EQUALS 6.0. DBO PT.
CONSTRAINTS ARE BROKEN DUE TO VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

TORREY

Coredesat · #23 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:23 am

AFWA has it even higher:

505
TPPN10 KGWC 100620

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHEBI)

B. 10/0531Z (105)
C. 16.2N/9
D. 125.6E/4
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D4.0/24HRS/STT: D3.0/06HRS -10/0531Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/ PBO 07NM SML IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
38NM W RING YIELDING AN E NUMBER OF 6.0, ADDED 0.5 FOR
EYE ADJ YIELDING A DT OF 6.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS
6.0 WHILE MET YIELDS 4.0. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN WITH RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

AODT: T6.5 (CLR EYE)

VAN SCHAICK/LAING

wxmann_91 · #24 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:47 am

Though the SSD floaters aren't available, I'd just like to introduce the CIMSS archives. This is for those who want to have closeup images for hard drive...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... pac/storm/

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... ac/movies/

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/visir/

Coredesat · #25 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:02 am

What a difference 8 hours makes...2230 UTC last night:

0656 UTC this morning:

#26 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:35 am

Yes, 1974 was an unusual year. There were 35 warned systems that year but only 15 typhoons. Of the 15 typhoons, 7 hit Luzon with 5 of the 7 hitting within 50 miles of Baler Bay. The bombardment of typhoons in October and November was the worst onslaught since before WWII. Satarting in October Typhoons Bess, Carmen, Della, Elaine, Gloria and Irma hit Luzon and Tropical Storm Faye which hit on Halloween hit southern Luzon. There were no Supers but Gloria was listed at 125kt but as you say studies suggest that Gloria may have Supered. Elaine, Gloria and Irma were huge storms. The diameter of the 1000 mb isobar on Elaine was 450 NM (518 Statute miles) and the cloud pattern was larger than the whole island of Luzon. I was called in off of Break to help brief out the crews evacuating from Clark AB and when I walked into the station and saw that monster to the East all I could saw was "Oh My God!".
Elaine crossed northern Luzon on October 28th and we officially record a peak gust of 48kt but the higher elevation sections of the Base and areas of town further away from the mountains had gusts over 60kt. Manila had 65 kt gusts in the Port Area from a storm nearly 300 miles away. Interestingly enough exactly one month later I tracked the eye of Irma on radar as it headed directly towards us and my last ob before we lost power had a 27 NM eye just to our east with us coming into the RFQ as the storm was headed WSW. The best thing about it was that it was a daytime storm. In fact, three of the storm eyes I've been in have been in daylight.

Steve

Chacor · #27 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:54 am

Has strengthened further... Landfall in Vietnam expected at 95 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 16.2N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 15.2N 120.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 120600UTC 14.2N 116.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
69HF 130600UTC 13.9N 112.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT =

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #28 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 5:11 am

Here's a visible loop from Friday (local time): http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v606/ ... -Chebi.gif

#29 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 5:57 am

Holy cow! 3 in a row. Can't believe that JMA is going for such a strong typhoon off the coast of Vietnam. Will be really interesting to see what happens in the South China Sea.

In the meantime...watch out the Phillipines!

#30 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 6:08 am

Xangsane II possibly? When I checked the best track Xangsane was the first TY to make landfall in Vietnam since 1989 so two in one year would be very bad for them.

#31 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 6:24 am

I just read this over on http://www.typhoon2000.com

"A drop of 57 hPa (millibars) in just 6 hours may put CHEBI as one of the most rapid intensifying Tropical Cyclone of all time...Its track is very similar to Super Typhoon CIMARON (PAENG) which crossed the same area exactly 2 weeks ago...All interests in the Luzon and Northern Visayas, Philippines should closely monitor the progress of Typhoon Chebi."

I feel very sorry for the people of Luzon!

KatDaddy · #32 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 7:05 am

This is amazing! Another extreme rapid intensification typhoon which is going to pound the same area pounded by Cimaron.

#33 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 7:51 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 16.2N 124.2E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 15.7N 120.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 121200UTC 14.7N 116.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 131200UTC 14.5N 112.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT =

wxmann_91 · #34 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 11:51 am

Good news is, being fast and small, Chebi should not do too much damage, hopefully. It's going to make landfall around where Cimaron made landfall, and that area is sparsely populated.

I do not see this strengthening as much as the JMA does back over the SCS. In fact, being so small, it might not make it through the Phillippines completely intact.

HurricaneBill · #35 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Fri Nov 10, 2006 10:52 pm

So this makes typhoon #4 for the Philippines this year.

1. Chanchu
2. Xangsane
3. Cimaron
4. Chebi

Cimaron and Chebi are a pair.

#36 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Nov 11, 2006 12:15 am

There have been worse years believe me (like 1974).

Steve

Chacor · #37 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Nov 11, 2006 2:08 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0620 CHEBI (0620)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 16.1N 120.3E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 15.8N 117.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 130600UTC 15.7N 115.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 140600UTC 16.4N 112.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT =

HurricaneBill · #38 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sat Nov 11, 2006 2:24 am

Aslkahuna wrote:There have been worse years believe me (like 1974).

Steve

And 1970.

Chacor · #39 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Nov 12, 2006 4:54 am

Now slowly spinning down... landfall in Vietnam as a 55-kt STS projected.

WTPQ20 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0620 CHEBI (0620)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 15.1N 115.8E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 15.1N 111.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 140600UTC 15.5N 109.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 150600UTC 15.9N 106.9E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

HurricaneBill · #40 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sun Nov 12, 2006 7:28 pm

Does this WPAC season seem like it is behaving more like a post-El Nino season rather than an El Nino season?

Tropical Depression Chebi - spinning down in South China Sea

!

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