SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:

#361 Postby Yankeegirl » Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:13 pm

I am too, this 80 degree weather just aint right for November!! 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#362 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:55 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:I am too, this 80 degree weather just aint right for November!! 8-)
The worst is the mosquitos. I just went outside for a quick minute or two and now have over 10 bites. How fun.. :roll:

We need a good freeze to make them go away for awhile.

UPDATE: 11pm. The 0Z GFS is now warmer yet again. It still brings a CF through next week, but it is not an arctic one. Until we can get a decent trend (a whole day of similar model runs), I really don't know what to believe at this point.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:

#363 Postby Yankeegirl » Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:40 pm

no doubt, bring it on!
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#364 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:19 pm

I have a feeling the severe threat tomorrow may actually be worse than they thought this afternoon. I just stepped outside, and it is quite clear that the airmass is becoming primed. The clouds are whipping just above the surface and the pine trees around me are blowing in a 15-20mph wind just above the surface. At ground level there is also a decent 10-15mph, humid, southerly breeze and this Gulf flow will only help to get us "juiced up" for an interesting day tomorrow. This southerly flow has also helped to raise our dewpoint to an amazing (for November) 70F at Hooks, and 71F at IAH.

At the very minimum, I would expect the NWS to raise rain chances a bit for tomorrow evening..may be to 50% or so (instead of 30%).

It will be interesting to see what the SPC says in their next outlook..
0 likes   

User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:

#365 Postby Yankeegirl » Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:29 pm

I did also notice the winds pick up all of a sudden... and its so sticky out there!! yuck!! winter, where are you???
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29112
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#366 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:26 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't think it is going east of us by that much (if at all) this time. In fact, I think the plains may be the bullseye of next weeks cold surge...

For instance, the 12Z GFS shows the chilly air spilling right down the plains into TX first, and then moving east with time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^WED morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^THURS morning^^

**BTW, I also think the GFS may be a bit too progressive with this. We will have to watch this closely to see if it actually moves out as fast as it shows it doing.**

The 12Z ECMWF is also showing the same thing:

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/restric ... 50_7d.html

So based on the latest models and the general trend...I think this will be more of a rush down the plains instead of a typical rush to our east. JB also agrees with this as he thinks the west and plains will get colder first before the east with this system.


Sorry, but what I see in these models is not whay you see. The cold air barely makes it into N TX and then slides East quickly. We're still too zonal. If I remember my "learnin' we need more of an omega pattern than there is now for us to really get the cold blasts.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:

#367 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:43 am

Well make it happen David!!! :lol: :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#368 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 7:03 am

Whether or not next week gets cold. I do have at least a little good news...

Check out the latest NWS forecast for the weekend. It is considerably cooler:

Veterans Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 69. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#369 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 7:30 am

vbhoutex wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't think it is going east of us by that much (if at all) this time. In fact, I think the plains may be the bullseye of next weeks cold surge...

For instance, the 12Z GFS shows the chilly air spilling right down the plains into TX first, and then moving east with time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^WED morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^THURS morning^^

**BTW, I also think the GFS may be a bit too progressive with this. We will have to watch this closely to see if it actually moves out as fast as it shows it doing.**

The 12Z ECMWF is also showing the same thing:

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/restric ... 50_7d.html

So based on the latest models and the general trend...I think this will be more of a rush down the plains instead of a typical rush to our east. JB also agrees with this as he thinks the west and plains will get colder first before the east with this system.


Sorry, but what I see in these models is not whay you see. The cold air barely makes it into N TX and then slides East quickly. We're still too zonal. If I remember my "learnin' we need more of an omega pattern than there is now for us to really get the cold blasts.
yeah, I am starting to have less faith too. Today, tomorrow and Sunday will be crucial model days, but if there are no changes, then I think next weeks cold front will make it cool (like this weekend), but not cold. We'll see I guess, but at this point I am just wishing for the best! :)

Hopefully JB and the NWS discussions will shed more light on the situation later today and this weekend.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

#370 Postby Portastorm » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:04 am

Hey EWG, unfortunately for you, me, and anyone else on here hoping for some seasonal or even below-seasonal temps in the next 7-10 days, the pattern looks "progressive."

Progressive for most of us means a day or two of seasonal and then normal to above normal with little or no precipitation. Sometimes these fronts squeeze out precip in your neck of Texas ... but for anyone west of a Victoria-to-College Station line ... it usually means no rain.

Meanwhile, we're looking at a high near 90 in Austin today. I hate this weather! :x
0 likes   

Johnny
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1428
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:35 pm
Location: No Snow For You, Texas

#371 Postby Johnny » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:10 am

Like I said, next weeks front will not be a cold blast because most of it will slide off to the east. As VB pointed out, we will get more of a back door effect from it with an average or slightly below averag cool down...kind of like this weekend.

Also as of this morning, the NWS is not biting on anything significant storm wise coming out of this front later on this evening.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING THRU OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX AROUND SUNSET
AND OFF THE COAST SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A NARROW BAND SOME SHRA/TSTMS TO FORM
RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT
THE NEGATIVES GENERALLY OUTWEIGH THE POSITIVES
.
BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF PASSES WELL N OF SE TX. MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW - GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 850 MB. IN ADDITION...
CAPPING INVERSION WILL REQUIRE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO
GET SOMETHING GOING.
LI'S ARE IMPRESSIVE...IN THE -6 TO -8
RANGE...BUT THE UNSTABLE LAYER IS ALOFT WHERE THERE IS A MOISTURE
VOID.
GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...DO NOT PLAN ON MENTIONING ANY
SEVERE WX IN THE ZONES EVEN THOUGH OUR NE PORTION IS OUTLOOKED BY
SPC.

Do y'all like my X-Mas colors? lol :sled:
0 likes   

double D
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 485
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:17 pm
Location: Austin, Tx

#372 Postby double D » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:49 am

Something interesting to note is according to some professional mets is that this pattern is very similar to the one in Jan. 06. Remember how warm that month was? Hopefully we won't have to wait until December to get any real cold weather. This type of pattern seems like it wants to stick around for a while. :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29112
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#373 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:10 pm

I'll say one thing about this pattern!!! IT SUCKS!!!!!! 11:00am and it is 82º at my house!!!! RIDICULOUS!!!!! I hope we do cool down for the weekend. Being in a full tux(son getting married tomorrow) in the 80's is not my idea of fun!!!!!

Unfortunately, unless this pattern does start to break we may be waiting till December for any real cool down of any duration. :cry: :cry: :cry:

Yankee Girl I keep pushing the button, but it appears part of the mechanism isn't working!!!!! :wink: :wink: :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#374 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:40 pm

Pacific cool front pushed through the D/FW metroplex around 9:30am, N/NW winds are around 14mph. The forecast high for today is 75, but the front did come thru earlier then expected, so high's may fall short, right now it's 66 at 11:12 am and as the cooler air filters in temps should level off soon.

GFS morning run have backed off any major cold fronts coming thru over the few days, with only cool pacific air being the main factor. Weekend high's (65) will be just below the normal (67) for this time of year. Thing's look to be rather up and down with temps thru the 19th but, buy the 23rd-24th thing may be different.

There is bitter cold air in western and central Canada with the early snow pack, and the polar vortex is nearby instead of across the continent in Siberia, and once the cold is too heavy it will spill into the Con-US. I'm thinking the EPO will go negative at the end of November, the forecast is showing the EPO going back to neutral by the 20th or so, and the NOA will also be heading negative at that time, so I still think that the Con-US will see colder air by late November and most likely by early December. Also the MJO has shown signs of strengthening so that will also play into the game of when the colder air spills south.

I feel that by Thanksgiving the weather pattern will be quite different with a large area of the U.S from the Rockies east seeing it's coldest weather of the season, and New Yorkers may be watching the annual Macy's Thanksgiving parade in the snow.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:

#375 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:39 pm

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-111230-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BOUNDARY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.


Hey, I am 5 miles north of I 10, maybe I will get some action, as long as the Bear Creek Dome doesnt interfere!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#376 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:57 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Pacific cool front pushed through the D/FW metroplex around 9:30am, N/NW winds are around 14mph. The forecast high for today is 75, but the front did come thru earlier then expected, so high's may fall short, right now it's 66 at 11:12 am and as the cooler air filters in temps should level off soon.

GFS morning run have backed off any major cold fronts coming thru over the few days, with only cool pacific air being the main factor. Weekend high's (65) will be just below the normal (67) for this time of year. Thing's look to be rather up and down with temps thru the 19th but, buy the 23rd-24th thing may be different.

There is bitter cold air in western and central Canada with the early snow pack, and the polar vortex is nearby instead of across the continent in Siberia, and once the cold is too heavy it will spill into the Con-US. I'm thinking the EPO will go negative at the end of November, the forecast is showing the EPO going back to neutral by the 20th or so, and the NOA will also be heading negative at that time, so I still think that the Con-US will see colder air by late November and most likely by early December. Also the MJO has shown signs of strengthening so that will also play into the game of when the colder air spills south.

I feel that by Thanksgiving the weather pattern will be quite different with a large area of the U.S from the Rockies east seeing it's coldest weather of the season, and New Yorkers may be watching the annual Macy's Thanksgiving parade in the snow.
That is a very good assessment Cpt. Crunch. I think you will probably end up right on that. JB would also support your analysis as he believes that most of the nation east of the rockies will be chilly to end out the month.

On another note, I can NOT wait for that cooler air you are seeing right now to work down this way. Right now it is in the upper 80s and very humid here in Houston.

BTW: JBs very latest post agrees with you almost exactly. He is saying that the cold can not come down and have any "staying power" until the 40-day wave of the MJO comes east. He said that there will be attempts at cold (including the front next week), but he said the CORE of the cold in western canada will likely not come until December. However, he said that when it does come full force that it could be a major event! Before it comes though, he said that days 10-20 could become warm again for the nations midsection. Eventually though, this build up of cold air will likely mean a parka event for Texas and a true blue-norther. Can't wait...
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#377 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:00 pm

vbhoutex wrote:I'll say one thing about this pattern!!! IT SUCKS!!!!!! 11:00am and it is 82º at my house!!!! RIDICULOUS!!!!! I hope we do cool down for the weekend. Being in a full tux(son getting married tomorrow) in the 80's is not my idea of fun!!!!!

Unfortunately, unless this pattern does start to break we may be waiting till December for any real cool down of any duration. :cry: :cry: :cry:

Yankee Girl I keep pushing the button, but it appears part of the mechanism isn't working!!!!! :wink: :wink: :wink:
Don't worry. The weekend WILL be cooler. In fact, we may be approaching the upper 30s to near 40F by Sunday morning, so a jacket may even be needed.

BTW: If we do hit the forecast low of 42F in Spring, that will be nearly 10F below our average low for this time of the year.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#378 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:04 pm

double D wrote:Something interesting to note is according to some professional mets is that this pattern is very similar to the one in Jan. 06. Remember how warm that month was? Hopefully we won't have to wait until December to get any real cold weather. This type of pattern seems like it wants to stick around for a while. :cry:
This is nothing like that pattern. January '06 was progressive and warm the entire month, with very few below normal days. This month, however, has already featured quite a few below normal days and stronger fronts (capable of the below normal days).

BTW, don't forget last November. That month was MUCH hotter than this one. During the first part of the month Houston approached 90F on multiple occassions. This November, however, is currently averaged out to be 0.5F BELOW normal (Nov. 1st - 9th).
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#379 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:32 pm

I'm not one for getting excited over model runs 72hrs out and greater, but there is something that has peaked my interest. GFS and ECMWF both are showing two large areas of high pressure setting up around the 20th-21st, one just off the SW coast of Alaska and the other over Greenland, these two areas of high pressure will squeeze a upper low with bitterly cold air (as it looks to be of Siberian nature) setup over the central part of Saskatchewan south into the central plains and maybe as far south as the gulf coast depending on how strong the high pressure systems are and how long they stay put.

Image

This setup could bring high temps across the upper plains into the single digits and depending on the SJS could also bring a good chance of heavy snows across the central and lower plains by Thanksgiving weekend. Now like I said my interest is peaked so this will be worth watching thru next week.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Mon Nov 13, 2006 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#380 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:47 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Pacific cool front pushed through the D/FW metroplex around 9:30am, N/NW winds are around 14mph. The forecast high for today is 75, but the front did come thru earlier then expected, so high's may fall short, right now it's 66 at 11:12 am and as the cooler air filters in temps should level off soon.

GFS morning run have backed off any major cold fronts coming thru over the few days, with only cool pacific air being the main factor. Weekend high's (65) will be just below the normal (67) for this time of year. Thing's look to be rather up and down with temps thru the 19th but, buy the 23rd-24th thing may be different.

There is bitter cold air in western and central Canada with the early snow pack, and the polar vortex is nearby instead of across the continent in Siberia, and once the cold is too heavy it will spill into the Con-US. I'm thinking the EPO will go negative at the end of November, the forecast is showing the EPO going back to neutral by the 20th or so, and the NOA will also be heading negative at that time, so I still think that the Con-US will see colder air by late November and most likely by early December. Also the MJO has shown signs of strengthening so that will also play into the game of when the colder air spills south.

I feel that by Thanksgiving the weather pattern will be quite different with a large area of the U.S from the Rockies east seeing it's coldest weather of the season, and New Yorkers may be watching the annual Macy's Thanksgiving parade in the snow.
That is a very good assessment Cpt. Crunch. I think you will probably end up right on that. JB would also support your analysis as he believes that most of the nation east of the rockies will be chilly to end out the month.

On another note, I can NOT wait for that cooler air you are seeing right now to work down this way. Right now it is in the upper 80s and very humid here in Houston.

BTW: JBs very latest post agrees with you almost exactly. He is saying that the cold can not come down and have any "staying power" until the 40-day wave of the MJO comes east. He said that there will be attempts at cold (including the front next week), but he said the CORE of the cold in western canada will likely not come until December. However, he said that when it does come full force that it could be a major event! Before it comes though, he said that days 10-20 could become warm again for the nations midsection. Eventually though, this build up of cold air will likely mean a parka event for Texas and a true blue-norther. Can't wait...


EWG,

I don't subcribe to JB so that is interesting about what he said. I may be early on my assessment and JB may be late so the end of Nov may very well be the bullseye on the change over to a colder patteren.
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests