That could very well be the case.CaptinCrunch wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:That is a very good assessment Cpt. Crunch. I think you will probably end up right on that. JB would also support your analysis as he believes that most of the nation east of the rockies will be chilly to end out the month.CaptinCrunch wrote:Pacific cool front pushed through the D/FW metroplex around 9:30am, N/NW winds are around 14mph. The forecast high for today is 75, but the front did come thru earlier then expected, so high's may fall short, right now it's 66 at 11:12 am and as the cooler air filters in temps should level off soon.
GFS morning run have backed off any major cold fronts coming thru over the few days, with only cool pacific air being the main factor. Weekend high's (65) will be just below the normal (67) for this time of year. Thing's look to be rather up and down with temps thru the 19th but, buy the 23rd-24th thing may be different.
There is bitter cold air in western and central Canada with the early snow pack, and the polar vortex is nearby instead of across the continent in Siberia, and once the cold is too heavy it will spill into the Con-US. I'm thinking the EPO will go negative at the end of November, the forecast is showing the EPO going back to neutral by the 20th or so, and the NOA will also be heading negative at that time, so I still think that the Con-US will see colder air by late November and most likely by early December. Also the MJO has shown signs of strengthening so that will also play into the game of when the colder air spills south.
I feel that by Thanksgiving the weather pattern will be quite different with a large area of the U.S from the Rockies east seeing it's coldest weather of the season, and New Yorkers may be watching the annual Macy's Thanksgiving parade in the snow.
On another note, I can NOT wait for that cooler air you are seeing right now to work down this way. Right now it is in the upper 80s and very humid here in Houston.
BTW: JBs very latest post agrees with you almost exactly. He is saying that the cold can not come down and have any "staying power" until the 40-day wave of the MJO comes east. He said that there will be attempts at cold (including the front next week), but he said the CORE of the cold in western canada will likely not come until December. However, he said that when it does come full force that it could be a major event! Before it comes though, he said that days 10-20 could become warm again for the nations midsection. Eventually though, this build up of cold air will likely mean a parka event for Texas and a true blue-norther. Can't wait...
EWG,
I don't subcribe to JB so that is interesting about what he said. I may be early on my assessment and JB may be late so the end of Nov may very well be the bullseye on the change over to a colder patteren.
What I wonder is if we could potentially get another event similar to 1989, where each front got stronger and stronger before finally peaking by the time of the 3rd or 4th arctic front? It would be cool (no pun intended) if that could happen again this year. All I want is one snowfall and I will be happy for the rest of the winter.
