SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

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Extremeweatherguy
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#401 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 8:51 pm

Severe Weather Statement

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
743 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

TXC201-473-110200-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-061111T0200Z/
WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-
743 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR HARRIS AND WALLER
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CST...

AT 736 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 5 MILES EAST OF WALLER...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY...

THIS STORM HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM CST.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL
POLICE...OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


why would they even say this 17 minutes before the fact? Shouldn't the NWS know how quickly things can change?

In fact, it actually now appears stronger in the most recent radar images.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

update: Nevermind. It actually now does appear to be weakening slightly. Still needs to be watched closely though (and not just it alone, but the line as a whole). Regardless of it being severe or not, we should also all expect to see the threat of heavy rain, gusty winds to 45mph and small hail.

update 2: Well now it seems like it might want to strengthen again. Watch out for another warning soon if it does. Also, a gust front looks like it might be setting up out ahead of it.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#402 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:01 pm

good thunder outta it now...
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#403 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:19 pm

Nice lightening show to the NW from down in League City.
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#404 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:29 pm

Thunder is really picking up now and the lightning is almost non stop...
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#405 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:30 pm

Lots of heavy rains and winds from this right now, but nothing severe ATM.
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#406 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:33 pm

It is going to be windy behind this too. College station is currently gusting to 32mph and Brenham and Austin are gusting to about 25mph.
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#407 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:34 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:It is going to be windy behind this too. College station is currently gusting to 32mph and Brenham and Austin are gusting to about 25mph. We can expect the same.


^^oops. I accidently quoted my own comment. I meant to only edit the original. lol^^
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#408 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:35 pm

Very windy here now, definately from the north too.... good heavy rain and very strong winds!!
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#409 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:44 pm

I can honestly say this is the most severe storm I have seen so far!!! I have street flooding, branches down and unbelieveable lightning!!! I think the weather service made a big boo boo on canceling the severe thunderstorm warning!! This is intense!! But its already moved on.... very fast moving stuff!!!
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#410 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Nov 10, 2006 9:45 pm

BTW, it also made my car alarm go off, I have never had a car alarm go off from thunder!! I cant believe we didnt loose the power!!
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#411 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 10:16 pm

this is strange..

no 9pm reports have come in from many key stations in the region. The only one I found was Brenham which was 66F with 22mph wind gusts about 30 minutes ago.
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#412 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Nov 10, 2006 10:34 pm

Well I can tell you all the severe weather has moved south of here and its 65.7 out, still breezy too...
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#413 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 10:40 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
931 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLEVELAND TO KATY TO EAGLE LAKE
MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH COASTLINE 1130 PM TO
MIDNIGHT. THOU 0.2 8BIT VELOCITY LOOP INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
AT AND JUST ABOVE 1KFT. EXPECT WINDS OVER BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS
TO REACH SCA CRITERIA ONCE FRONT PASS THROUGH. STORMS NEAR AND
ALONG FRONT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY (COMPARED TO EARLY EVENINGS
RADAR READINGS). 37
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#414 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 10, 2006 11:23 pm

The 0Z GFS continues that models trend of the day. It now looks even colder with next weeks front, and there looks to be an increasing risk of some true "chilly" air making it's way down here. Next Wednesday and Thursday will likely feature some of the coolest temps. of the season if this all plays out right:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
^^Tuesday night = strong low over Oklahoma helps pull front into TX panhandle.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml
^^Front reaches TX coast with a major temperature fall behind it. The 540 thickness line and 0C 850mb reach northern TX during this time as well.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _114.shtml
^^Strong CAA and an 850mb temp. near 0-2C in Houston help to make Wednesday afternoon quite chilly. Temperatures look like they will have a hard time rebounding out of the 50s (after being in the 60s at midnight that morning).^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml
^^Thursday morning looks to be the coolest of the season so far. It should be as cold or colder than what tomorrow night will bring.^^
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#415 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Nov 11, 2006 9:23 am

Latest NWS forecast shows very nice November-like weather over the next 7 days:

Veterans Day: Sunny, with a high near 69. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 41. North wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming east between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. East wind around 5 mph.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 44.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 70.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 45.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 74.
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#416 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Nov 11, 2006 3:57 pm

From the afternoon AFD:

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE OF SOME CONCERN...BECAUSE IF WINDS BECOME CALM
BRIEFLY INLAND...WE WILL SEE SOME COLD TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. HAVE SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF THE MAV NUMBERS BECAUSE OF
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LATE. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND
35 DEGREES ACROSS THE EXT N. 33
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#417 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Nov 11, 2006 10:33 pm

Its cold!!!! 52.3 now, I am worried if it keeps droppin like this!!!
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#418 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Nov 11, 2006 11:04 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Its cold!!!! 52.3 now, I am worried if it keeps droppin like this!!!
I'm already down to 45F here! It is going to be a very cold night ahead with upper 30s and lower 40s common tomorrow morning. Brrr..

BTW, the 0Z GFS continues to look chilly next week. Next Wednesday night will probably be the coldest so far:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Nov 11, 2006 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#419 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Nov 11, 2006 11:05 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RUNNING FROM NEAR 40 NORTHERN ZONES TO MID 40S
COAST. SURFACE WINDS HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED IN MANY AREAS INLAND.
THICK CS SHIELD CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST
GULF WITH NORTHERN FRINGES BRUSHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO 1ST PERIOD TEMPS. OTHERWISE...ZFPHGX ON
TRACK. 37
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#420 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Nov 11, 2006 11:49 pm

I just checked and wow! It is cold up in Waco. At 10pm they were already down to 38F, and with it now approaching 11pm, they may be even colder. Their forecast low overnight is 36F...but I have a feeling that may bust by a few degrees.

update: strangely Waco's temp. has risen back to 40 degrees at 11pm.
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