SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[Yankeegirl]

Its sitting at 49 here on the west side... BBRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Yankeegirl]

my memory on the thermometer says it got down to 46.0 here last night... Cold enough!!!

[southerngale]

Hit 39° here - brrrr!


I'm loving the cooler weather.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Was also in the 39-40F range here too. Brr..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the NWS needs to trend their temperatures downward for next week. Based on model trends, there seems to be no way that we manage to get above 70F next Wednesday and Thursday, and in fact...Wednesday night could be the coldest so far this fall.

Here is the latest from the 18Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
^^WED AFTERNOON^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
^^THURS MORNING^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
^^THURS AFTERNOON (The model looks to be showing some very chilly highs)^^

BTW, the GFS still shows the bulk of the coldest air remaining bottled up in western Canada and Alaska over the next 16 days (and slowly getting colder over time). When that air finally decides to come south (probably in December) it will likely lead to one of our coldest outbreaks of the winter season...

18Z GFS day 16:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml
^^The model is showing an area of -33C 850mb temps. in western canada! Brrr...^^

Here is a look at current Alaskan temperatures:

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0Z run also looks chilly. In fact, it looks like we will be having a hard time getting out of the 50s on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. If this plays out it will surely mean the coolest air of the season thus far:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
^^Wed. Afternoon^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
^^Thurs. Morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
^^Thursday Afternoon^^

Also, take a look at next Sunday night! It has the freeze line reaching all the way to central LA and it would probably mean middle to upper 30s for most of SE Texas (with a near freeze in places like Conroe):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml

[Yankeegirl]

Its another chilly night again tonight... not as cold as last night, but still chilly!! its 57 out here... wonderful!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Heres another good site for models, if you don't already have it!

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/

[JenBayles]

Got back from the TX Hill Country yesterday afternoon. We froze our b*tts off up there Sunday morning! Not sure, but think it was probably upper 30s. I'm liking what we have going in Houston now, and now that I'm back to my own fireplace, ready for the next front.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check out the latest Houston NWS forecast! It is VERY NICE! Wednesday and Thursday will struggle to reach the middle 60s under sunny skies and Thursday morning and Friday morning will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s. This is PERFECT November weather!

This Afternoon: Partly cloudy, with a high near 71. East wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind 10 to 20 mph becoming north. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 66. Northwest wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 43.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 66.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 42.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 73.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 73.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

[Yankeegirl]

Guess I better go get some firelogs and egg nog...

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST MON NOV 13 2006

VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTS AFFECTING NORTH TX EVERY 3-4 DAYS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FILLING AS THE PARENT SURFACE
LOW (AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY) PULLS AWAY INTO QUEBEC. CURRENTLY
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK POOR WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE LEFT POPS
BELOW 10% FOR NOW. A SPRAWLING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME.
REINFORCING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH
TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SW
AND A DEEP TROUGH IS MAINTAINED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=112

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just checked and...the GFS model is showing it as cold as the mid to upper 30s in Houston on Friday morning!

In fact, upon further inspection, I notice it even brings the 35F line down to about the city.

It then does NEARLY the same thing for Sunday night too. Could be interesting..

[Johnny]

Wow! It looks to be pretty darn chilly after this next frontal passage all the way into next week! This will by far be our longest stretch of cool weather. It's time to break out the christmas lights. I'll probably have to throw away 80% of them so then I'll have to make a trip to WalMart.lol While I'm at it, I guess I'll break out a little Christmas music.

[Johnny]

Hey EWG...throw some freezing temps. up towards my ranch property in Madison County. The goat weed is killing my sinuses....one freeze will take care of it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 132103
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CST MON NOV 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR (LAYER-WISE) AHS PUSHED INTO SE TX FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE MID-UPPER SHRT WV THAT PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A VERY SIMILAR SHRT WV PASSING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ON
THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS REALLY ONLY DISCERNIBLE
IN THE DW PT FIELD.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIP CHCS LATE TONIGHT...TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED THIS PACKAGE TOWARD THE GFS SOLN WHICH IS A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT AND SHOWS BETTER
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHCS THROUGH THE PD. IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS...I HAVE RAISED THE POPS TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA AFT MIDNIGHT INTO THE CHC RANGE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL
HAVE GOOD SFC HEATING TUE AFT...THINK THAT THE CAP MAY BE A
PROBLEM FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS. THIS
SHOULD CHG ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AFT MIDNIGHT...AS THE
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TX. STILL
THINK THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 6
AM. APPEARS THAT SVR TSTMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR EASTERN AREAS
TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 120 KT
UPPER JET MAX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER...SO MADE A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD TO THE TEMPS. IT WILL BE WINDY ON WEDNESDAY
AS A VERY DEEP LOW SFC LOW DEEPENS NE OF THE AREA OVER ARK/TEN AND
CREATES A TIGHT SFC GRADIENT ACROSS SE TX. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY ON WED AND MIGHT NEED GALE WARNINGS OFFSHORE AS WELL.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNEVENTFUL. A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SAT/SAT NIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPS
SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WED->MON. 33

Another factor is making Wednesday cold is the wind. Though highs may be in the lower to middle 60s, the strong gusts will probably make it feel like it is in the upper 50s to near 60F all day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another interesting thing is how far south snow may reach. Latest forecasts show it mixing with the rain as far south as the north Texas border! Here is the forecast from Hugo, OK (just a few miles north of the border):

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... K&site=TSA

Also, check out the 18Z GFS. It is even COLDER! It shows a few flakes of snow (mixing with rain) even reaching north Texas on Wednesday afternoon with the 0C 850mb line and 540 thickness line reaching well south into the state:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
^^That also shows temps. only in the (low to mid) 50s Wednesday afternoon in Houston!^^

It also shows us only in the 50s on Thursday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

Brr..

[Yankeegirl]

It looks like tomorrow night is going to be a little rough, from what the locals are saying... sometime after midnight to 6 am is the time to watch... said there is going to be a squall line ahead of the front, but its going to move quick... kind of like Friday nights line...

[CaptinCrunch]

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST. FALLING WIND SPEEDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD FALL BELOW 30 DEGREES.

[Yankeegirl]

Doesnt look like the storms are going to be too bad here as once expected.... Oh well, I was looking fowrard to some good thunder boomers, but I guess you cant get the nice cool weather and the storms... lol...