November 15: Tornado Outbreak - Southeast US - 9 killed

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#21 Postby dean » Mon Nov 13, 2006 7:57 pm

senorpepr wrote:Dean,

You are looking too far north. Here's SPC's Day 2 Convective Outlook to give you an idea of the threat area:

Image


alright, i didnt think you guys would be thinking severe weather in the Ohio River valley. still too far out for me to look at models, i will probably look at them tomorrow.
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#22 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Nov 13, 2006 10:23 pm

senorpepr wrote:Dean,

You are looking too far north. Here's SPC's Day 2 Convective Outlook to give you an idea of the threat area:

Image


I have to keep an eye on the weather this week.
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#23 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 13, 2006 11:22 pm

This is still a crapshoot at this point. The instability is the only thing missing; we have the air mass and the upper-level support. But without the instability, little can develop.
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#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 13, 2006 11:54 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

DAY 2 FORECAST - November 15, 2006

This is an extremely difficult one to make. It is basically a coin flip. One side of me wants to go aggressive and issue a widespread, upper-end MDT or HIGH. Another side of me wants me to go conservative and stay in the SLGT category and keep the area small. I compromised and went with a MDT targetted at MS and AL. The potential is there for a dangerous outbreak, but without the instability, there is a good chance that it may completely bust and become little more than scattered thunderstorms. The large SLGT area allows for potential shifts in the course to the north and south.

Image
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#25 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Nov 14, 2006 12:04 am

Local weatherman told us things could get quite interesting Wednesday. We shall see.
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#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:12 am

Lindaloo wrote:Local weatherman told us things could get quite interesting Wednesday. We shall see.


The immediate coast gets fewer tornadoes and less severe thunderstorms overall I thought? I figured the worst would be along and somewhat north of I-20.

The SPC is quite aggressive for Tuesday (14th) with a 10% tornado risk and a mention of a few strong tornadoes, mainly in AR and LA - and this isn't even the main event.
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#27 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:09 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:Local weatherman told us things could get quite interesting Wednesday. We shall see.


The immediate coast gets fewer tornadoes and less severe thunderstorms overall I thought? I figured the worst would be along and somewhat north of I-20.

The SPC is quite aggressive for Tuesday (14th) with a 10% tornado risk and a mention of a few strong tornadoes, mainly in AR and LA - and this isn't even the main event.


IMO your outlook is too far north. Moisture just doesn't have the chance to advect that far north.

In this case, this best CAPE and moisture is limited to the coast while (as usual) the colder H5 temps are further north. Since the H85 winds are so strong (40-50 kt) from the coast all the way to the border, that's where I'd expect the highest threat of tornadoes.

Weak lapse rates except in areas further north will tend to limit the hail threat a bit.

I did create an outlook for tomorrow night but I feel to lazy to post it. But IMO the greatest threat of tornadoes is in MS (just for tomorrow night). If the trend for higher instability values continues, tomorrow night's threat may not be as significant but Wednesday could be a doozy.
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#28 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Nov 14, 2006 8:11 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:Local weatherman told us things could get quite interesting Wednesday. We shall see.


The immediate coast gets fewer tornadoes and less severe thunderstorms overall I thought? I figured the worst would be along and somewhat north of I-20.

The SPC is quite aggressive for Tuesday (14th) with a 10% tornado risk and a mention of a few strong tornadoes, mainly in AR and LA - and this isn't even the main event.


We do not have alot of tornadoes, but they do exist this far south. Severe thunderstorms can and will happen along the coast. I remember lightning flashes were so intense that it woke me up. Come to find out the lightning was happening in Gulfport.
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#29 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 11:59 am

The SPC has indeed gone with a MDT for AR/LA/MS tonight.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AND ERN
AR...NRN AND ERN LA...AND WRN/CENTRAL MS......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM ERN OK SE TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE AMPLIFICATION OF VIGOROUS TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION UNDERWAY AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD/12Z WED/ A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN SRN OK. VERY
STRONG WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT WHICH ALONG WITH THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE KINEMATICS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

WHILE THE TIME OF DAY/OVERNIGHT/ AND STABILIZING EFFECT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD MITIGATE SOMEWHAT
THE SEVERE THREAT...THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH
AVAILABILITY OF A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOW ONSHORE WRN GULF
COAST IS THE OVERRIDING CONSIDERATION IN CONTINUING THE MDT RISK OF
SEVERE TONIGHT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY..
SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRACK ESEWD ACROSS OK TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CENTRAL TX
ESEWD TO OFFSHORE SRN LA WILL LIFT NWD THIS AFTERNOON AS 30KT SWLY
LLJ SPREADS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY.
SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY IN PLACE VICINITY WARM FRONT ALREADY
SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE INTENSE DIGGING
GOING ON UPSTREAM. WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RAISING MLCAPES TO
NEAR 1500 J/KG SERN TX AND SRN LA AND ENHANCED SHEAR VICINITY OF
WARM FRONT...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT. WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KT A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH A TORNADO THREAT.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SURGE NWD INTO SRN AR/CENTRAL MS AND THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM BEGIN TO INTERACT.

OVERNIGHT...SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE PARTICULARLY VICINITY THE ENHANCED SHEAR AND LIFT OF THE
WARM FRONT. AS THE 100-120KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES ACROSS SRN
PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA AND INTO WRN MS.

..HALES/LEVIT.. 11/14/2006

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1659Z (11:59AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 12:25 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW LA...FAR SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141716Z - 141845Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS SW LA AND FAR SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW ROTATING
STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND SHOULD BE CAPABLE FOR PRODUCING HAIL AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE HOUSTON AREA INTO FAR EAST TX. A
WARM FRONT EXISTS FROM NEAR LUFKIN TX EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR LAKE
CHARLES AND OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY NWD TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE LAKE CHARLES 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL ROTATE AND BE SFC-BASED. ALTHOUGH THE GREATER
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS SW LA. HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY ROTATING STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 11/14/2006
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#31 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:39 pm

Tornado watch just issued. Tornado warnings flying out north and east of Lafayette currently. Looks like a busy day for south Louisiana!
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#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:24 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Tornado watch just issued. Tornado warnings flying out north and east of Lafayette currently. Looks like a busy day for south Louisiana!


It's only just beginning too! The main event is still a ways away...
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#33 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:Local weatherman told us things could get quite interesting Wednesday. We shall see.


The immediate coast gets fewer tornadoes and less severe thunderstorms overall I thought? I figured the worst would be along and somewhat north of I-20.

The SPC is quite aggressive for Tuesday (14th) with a 10% tornado risk and a mention of a few strong tornadoes, mainly in AR and LA - and this isn't even the main event.


Thought you said we would not see this on the immediate coast? :lol:
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#34 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:30 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:Local weatherman told us things could get quite interesting Wednesday. We shall see.


The immediate coast gets fewer tornadoes and less severe thunderstorms overall I thought? I figured the worst would be along and somewhat north of I-20.

The SPC is quite aggressive for Tuesday (14th) with a 10% tornado risk and a mention of a few strong tornadoes, mainly in AR and LA - and this isn't even the main event.


Thought you said we would not see this on the immediate coast? :lol:


I figured the risk was lower there...the highest risk is in the I-20 corridor anyway. There will likely still be severe weather at the coast, just not as likely to get the big tornadoes (if they happen).
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#35 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:43 pm

Looks all this will be moving into the georgia and carolinias WED night. lets shall see. that might be the most dangerous area since it is forcasted to move through at night.
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#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:22 pm

MDT extended north and south, could go to HIGH?

SPC AC 142001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF LA...MS AND
AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN TX INTO MUCH
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN LA SEWD INTO THE NWRN GULF. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING AS A SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS
UNDERWAY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND
SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
CNTRL ROCKIES THAT WILL AMPLIFY RAPIDLY SEWD.

WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF LA
INTO MS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
FRONT. STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY CROSS ONTO THE COOL SIDE.


A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SPREADS FARTHER INLAND AND LOW-MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DIVERGENCE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...INITIALLY FROM PARTS OF
AR AND LA AND SHIFTING EWD INTO PARTS OF MS. LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A FEW TORNADOES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
WITH ANY SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR
NWD SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR NEAR
SURFACE BASED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS FAR N
AS SRN AR.

..DIAL.. 11/14/2006

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2014Z (3:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:23 pm

MDT for Day 2 as well now...

SPC AC 141738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE 12Z TUESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AREA WITH
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL
UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE START
OF THIS PERIOD. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER
AR SWD THROUGH SERN TX. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH CNTRL MS AND INTO THE NERN GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD
OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND FL.


...GULF COASTAL STATES...

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO 60+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE NWRN GULF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN U.S. WEDNESDAY.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A COASTAL BOUNDARY NOW
RESIDING OVER THE NWRN GULF MOVING INLAND...WITH ATTENDANT ADVECTION
OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS INTO THE GULF COASTAL AREA.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IN MUCH OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL BE
TEMPERED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST TO
AOB 500 J/KG CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT PRIMARILY FROM PARTS OF LA AND MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY THROUGH THE SERN STATES. STRENGTHENING
LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

...TN VALLEY AREA...

STORMS DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS EXPECTED IN THIS
REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BANDS
MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS FARTHER S DUE TO MORE LIMITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. A BETTER THREAT IN THIS REGION MAY EVOLVE DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTION WHERE
IMPINGING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...
ESPECIALLY IF LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR COLD FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF
VORT MAX CENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON.


...CAROLINAS...

SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS AS
THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THIS REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONTRIBUTING TO NWWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE GULF
STREAM AREA. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THIS
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC FIELDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 11/14/2006

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2022Z (3:22PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#38 Postby Aquawind » Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:41 pm

4 Tornado Warnings and a Sereve TStorms Warning thus far..

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/ - Great link auto refreshes.
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#39 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 4:36 pm

so what is going to be the main risk for us here in Eastern NC and how bad is it currently looking? do we have a chance to go under a mod risk too? :eek:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODIC MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLD SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WED BUT WITH UPPER SUPPORT
LACKING I WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE/UPPER 40S-
LOWER 50S/. HIGHS ON WED WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM
THE WATER.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLVING STRONG
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE DEEP SOUTH NE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT AND THU. SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MORE
DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP AND WILL EXHIBIT A SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN
YESTERDAYS THINKING. NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST PCPN IN THE AREA
BEFORE 12Z THU SO I TRIMMED BACK PCPN AREA TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 17
LATE WED NIGHT. VERY POTENT NEG TILTED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ESTRN NC ON THU WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A NARROW AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE/STRONG LIFT-UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/AND
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTING MAINLY A
SQUALL LINE TYPE OF EVENT I.E. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS.
KINEMATICS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A DAMAGING WIND
GUST/TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER CAPES WILL BE LOW AND THUS SEVERE
THREAT STILL UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT.
CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD
BE ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST THU EVENING.

EDIT: edited to add in the local discussion...also note it does say that the severe wx threat is still up in the air ATTM...
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#40 Postby senorpepr » Tue Nov 14, 2006 6:09 pm

I noticed nobody added a comment about the tornado watch:

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 849...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

CORRECTED FOR CST INSTEAD OF CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES EAST OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING VICINITY NWD MOVING WARM FRONT
SRN LA. WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES
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