C/SC Texas weather thread - a cold, wet Easter

#101 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 4:45 pm

The Austin/San Antonio NWS folks are still saying highs Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s and downplaying any cold air for the weekend.

Someone (either them or JB and other pro mets) is going to bust this weekend.

#102 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 7:35 am

Portastorm wrote:The Austin/San Antonio NWS folks are still saying highs Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s and downplaying any cold air for the weekend.

Someone (either them or JB and other pro mets) is going to bust this weekend.

And indeed, temps are being adjusted ... NWS has made a huge 10-degree difference in our highs in Austin for Saturday. They're now forecasting highs in the upper 60s!

Extremeweatherguy · #103 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 8:06 am

Portastorm wrote:
Portastorm wrote:The Austin/San Antonio NWS folks are still saying highs Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s and downplaying any cold air for the weekend.

Someone (either them or JB and other pro mets) is going to bust this weekend.

And indeed, temps are being adjusted ... NWS has made a huge 10-degree difference in our highs in Austin for Saturday. They're now forecasting highs in the upper 60s!

Houston will probably follow suite as well. They are currently forecasting 72F for Saturday, but with weather.com and accuweather.com both forecasting upper 60s, I think the NWS may have to adjust downward too.

Either way, it looks MUCH cooler than what we were thinking 24-48 hrs. ago.

JenBayles · #104 Postby **JenBayles** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 9:42 am

Just in time! Tomorrow Dave and I and another friend are headed back to the Hog Stop in Fredericksburg for a few days. Has anyone been over to Lost Maples in the last couple of weeks? I hear the trees are gorgeous, and with the actual fall weather this year, I'm willing to bet they'll be putting on a show this year. We were trying to go there when Dean's bike broke down a few weeks ago. No bikes this time - taking the truck and the dogz - so maybe we'll actually make it!

double D · #105 Postby **double D** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 10:40 am

This weekend is looking like a chamber of commerce type weather.

I have never been over to Lost Maples but would love to go sometime. I can't believe I have never been yet. I bet the trees have some great color since we have had cool dry weather this fall. Enjoy your trip.

#106 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 3:21 pm

Talk about your model differences ... forecasted for Austin on Wednesday morning (6 a.m.), Nov. 15th, from today's 12z runs.

The GFS says 58 degrees

The Euro (ECMWF) says 42 degrees

double D · #107 Postby **double D** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 3:44 pm

I hope the ECMWF verifies. After this week I will look forward to more typcial fall like weather.

double D · #108 Postby **double D** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:08 am

Well it looks like after a warm week we will have a nice cool down for the weekend. It looks like the roller coaster temperatures will continue into next week as we are expected to warm back up again.

Although next week has the potential to be cool or cold, the NWS isn't really mentioning any real cold. I guess they are playing it safe since the models have been all over the place (especially the GFS). Hopefully we will know more by this weekend.

#109 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 11, 2006 7:08 am

6 am Saturday morning ... 48 degrees here in north Austin with a 15-20 mph wind out of the north. Um, I'd say the cold front has arrived!

:lol:

UPDATE: At 7 am, temps still falling. Now down to 47. This CAA is impressive!

double D · #110 Postby **double D** » Sat Nov 11, 2006 11:46 am

We could possibly come close to a freeze tonight in Fredericksburg (forecast of 33). If so It would be the first freeze of the season.

#111 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 11, 2006 11:59 am

double D wrote:We could possibly come close to a freeze tonight in Fredericksburg (forecast of 33). If so It would be the first freeze of the season.

Really? Wow! When do y'all normally get your first freeze?

double D · #112 Postby **double D** » Sat Nov 11, 2006 1:49 pm

I believe it is right around the beginning of November which is pretty much on schedule. The NWS dropped the temperature for Sunday morning from 39 to 33. I guess they are expecting ideal radiational cooling and the CAA was stronger than they thought. It will be interesting to check the temperature tomorrow morning.

#113 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Nov 13, 2006 4:23 pm

Whoa nellie!

Looks like our first freeze of the season may be on the way Wednesday night/Thurs. morn.

:froze:

Check out what the NWSFO in New Braunfels said in their Mon afternoon discussion about it:

" . . . THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING..MAINLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE PLAINS."

double D · #114 Postby **double D** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:26 pm

Not only is it going to be a lot cooler tomorrow but the wind will be howling as well. Tomorrow we could see the wind gusting to 40 mph! That will make for a chilly day indeed. :cold:

#115 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 4:57 pm

Whoa folks ... check out some of the language from the afternoon forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING US STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. AND WITH THE UPPER JET RIGHT OVER US WEDNESDAY
AND MASSIVE SINKING MOTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE, OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSPENDED DUST IN
THE AIR.

***************

Dust storm anyone?? :eek:

#116 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:46 pm

We had a saying in Lubbock something like: it's not a real dust storm until the street lights come on and fire alarms go off. But this may at least give you a pretty sunset.

At least it won't be raining mud balls. Those are real fun hehe...

KatDaddy · #117 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:48 pm

Enjoy the winds Portastorm. You guys have been left out of the weather over the past few months.

Kelarie · #118 Postby **Kelarie** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 9:18 am

I woke up at 3 this morning with the winds whipping everything around. The winds were just howling. Driving into work, have to drive by a construction site and it there was so much dirt in the air. Lovely. Just wonder what is going to be blown into the air, molds? cedar?

#119 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 9:54 am

So far, we're seeing winds consistently in the 25-30 mph range around the Austin area with gusts as high as 40!

I guess this is as "extreme" as our weather is going to get for awhile, so might as well enjoy it! :roll:

double D · #120 Postby **double D** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 5:35 pm

Well it looks like the wind is starting to calm down a little bit after this VERY wind day. Much of the hill country is under a freeze warning tonight as the winds die down and the dewpoint is quite low. Could this be our first freeze?

C/SC Texas weather thread - a cold, wet Easter

Who is online