Tropical Depression Sergio=Last Advisory Written

[cycloneye]

6z GFDL

GFDL has a major hurricane in it's forecast at this 6z run.

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KMIA 141235
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (EP212006) ON 20061114 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061114 1200 061115 0000 061115 1200 061116 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 104.5W 13.7N 105.2W 13.9N 105.3W 14.1N 105.1W
BAMM 13.1N 104.5W 13.6N 105.2W 13.6N 105.3W 13.2N 105.4W
LBAR 13.1N 104.5W 13.5N 105.1W 14.0N 105.6W 14.4N 105.7W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061116 1200 061117 1200 061118 1200 061119 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 105.1W 17.6N 105.4W 20.7N 107.0W 23.4N 107.8W
BAMM 13.6N 105.8W 15.5N 106.7W 17.7N 108.7W 19.1N 110.0W
LBAR 14.9N 105.7W 17.3N 104.7W 20.6N 103.5W 23.4N 99.6W
SHIP 65KTS 65KTS 62KTS 55KTS
DSHP 65KTS 65KTS 62KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 104.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 104.0W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 102.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 25NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 25NM

$$

[Chacor]

First use of Sergio in 24 years.

Incidentally, with TS 21E, we now tie the 1997 Pacific hurricane season for named storms east of the date-line (1997 reached "R" but had two named CPacs).

[Aquawind]

First use of Sergio in 24 years.

Incidentally, with TS 21E, we now tie the 1997 Pacific hurricane season for named storms east of the date-line (1997 reached "R" but had two named CPacs).

Interesting if it's not one basin it's a another.. Action Packed! The sky IS falling..

[Chacor]

NRL has this at 35 kt, as does FNMOC.

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 141430
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
800 AM PDT TUE NOV 14 2006

AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 09Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CORE BAND.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA ...AND 35
KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THE STRONG MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ESTIMATE...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
SINCE 1961 THAT TWO TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN IN NOVEMBER...AND ONLY FIVE STORMS HAVE FORMED LATER
IN THE SEASON THAN SERGIO.

A REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL MOTION MIGHT BE 315/3...SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ALREADY WEAK RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN...AND ALL OF THE
PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A LOOP OR A STALL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO
RESUME. WITHIN THIS BASIC SCENARIO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD...HOWEVER...WITH THE GFDL ON THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK VERY
CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT WELL
OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT LATER ON TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SEEM TO CONFIRM THE GOOD CORE BANDING
STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...AND SERGIO IS
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LIGHT SHEAR. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 29C...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST. I DON'T
SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE
SHORT RUN...AND PERHAPS QUITE RAPIDLY. THE SHIPS R-I INDEX
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AS DOES THE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS
AND GFDL GUIDANCE. WHILE THERE IS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...THE CURRENT FORECAST PRESUMES THAT SERGIO WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.2N 104.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 104.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 105.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 13.5N 105.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 14.0N 105.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 107.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Another landfall in Baja California?

[Chacor]

First EPac "S" storm since 1992's Hurricane Seymour formed on September 17.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL

The 12z GFDL forecasts a major hurricane of 135 kts.

[cycloneye]

Sergio is organizing fast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061114 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061114 1800 061115 0600 061115 1800 061116 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 104.6W 13.3N 104.8W 13.5N 104.1W 14.1N 103.4W
BAMM 13.0N 104.6W 13.4N 104.7W 13.4N 104.2W 13.6N 104.1W
LBAR 13.0N 104.6W 13.1N 104.6W 13.6N 104.5W 14.3N 104.3W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 64KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 64KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061116 1800 061117 1800 061118 1800 061119 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 103.1W 18.3N 102.7W 20.7N 103.1W 23.8N 99.7W
BAMM 14.4N 104.3W 16.5N 105.4W 18.5N 108.2W 20.0N 110.5W
LBAR 15.3N 103.7W 18.7N 101.9W 22.0N 99.8W 24.1N 94.4W
SHIP 71KTS 68KTS 61KTS 52KTS
DSHP 71KTS 68KTS 61KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 104.6W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 104.4W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 103.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 30NM


Sergio is now a 45kt storm according to the 18:00z models.Also it's almost stationary.

[HURAKAN]

Very, very small and compact LLC. It seems very likely Sergio will attain hurricane intensity. One for the records books.

[cycloneye]

485
WTPZ41 KNHC 142054
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 PM PST TUE NOV 14 2006

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF SERGIO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A
DISTINCT CURVED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB WERE 45 KT AT 1800 UTC. SINCE THEN...THE BANDING FEATURE
AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND
IT APPEARS THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SERGIO HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY...AND RECENTLY HAS BEEN DRIFTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE
CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING PATTERN TO PERSIST. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE DIVERGES. ONE SCENARIO...FAVORED BY THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS...MAINTAINS A WEAK STEERING PATTERN AND MEANDERS SERGIO OFF
THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO. A SECOND SCENARIO...OFFERED BY
THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND FSSE...TAKES THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
WEST OF THE BAJA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SECOND
OPTION AND IS JUST EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY RAPID...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND A
WARM DEEP OCEAN. THE GFDL IS THE MOST ROBUST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AND MAKES SERGIO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSERVATIVE...
TAKING THE CYCLONE ONLY TO 70 KT IN 2 DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO EXTREMES...AND
IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 12.8N 104.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.1N 104.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 104.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 105.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Epsilon_Fan]

how many letter names remain for the EastPac... it's been non-stop ou there. Does the EastPac have Alphas and Betas... haha?

[Cyclenall]

This is the one to watch. It's likely that Sergio will strengthen rapidly since the RI Index was quite good. Everything is in line for this to occur. I agree with the NHC and the GFDL has been showing RI with it reaching major hurricane strength. The GFDL is on to this cyclone, I remember how the GFDL forecast this year and I would pay attention to it for this tropical cyclone. I believe TS Sergio will become a hurricane soon and I think it will reach at least category 2 strength before it peaks out.

The following post is NOT an official product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My thoughts on Sergio:

First % chance of Tropical Storm Sergio becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: Currently 78%
Category 2 Hurricane: 67%
Category 3 Hurricane: 45%
Category 4 Hurricane: 20%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1%

Legend:

Very Slowly -- 5 knots stronger in 18-30 hours
Slowly -- 5 knots stronger in 12-18 hours
Moderately -- 5 knots stronger in 6 hours
Steadily -- 10 knots stronger in 6 hours
Quickly -- 10-15 knots stronger in 6 hours
Very Quickly -- 20 knots stronger in 6 hours
Rapidly -- 25 knots stronger in 6 hours
Extremely Rapidly -- 30-35 knots stronger in 6 hours
Record strengthening rate -- 35-40+ knots stronger in 6 hours

First % chance of Tropical Storm Sergio strengthening:

Very Slowly: 4%
Slowly: 20%
Moderately: 40%
Steadily: 50%
Quickly: 70%
Very Quickly: 90%
Rapidly: 80%
Extremely Rapidly: 40%
Record strengthening rate: 0.7%

Legend:

Very Slowly -- 5 knots weaker in 18-30 hours
Slowly -- 5 knots weaker in 12-18 hours
Moderately -- 5 knots weaker in 6 hours
Steadily -- 10 knots weaker in 6 hours
Quickly -- 10-15 knots weaker in 6 hours
Very Quickly -- 20 knots weaker in 6 hours
Rapidly -- 25 knots weaker in 6 hours
Extremely Rapidly -- 30-35 knots weaker in 6 hours
It's a Goner! -- 35-40+ knots weaker in 6 hours

First % chance of Tropical Storm Sergio weakening:

Very Slowly: 2%
Slowly: 1%
Moderately: 0.7%
Steadily: 0.5%
Quickly: 0.3%
Very Quickly: 0.1%
Rapidly: 0.01%
Extremely Rapidly: Almost 0%
It's a Goner!: Almost 0%

EDIT: It's now getting it's banding together very quickly.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061115 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061115 0000 061115 1200 061116 0000 061116 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 104.4W 12.9N 104.3W 13.1N 103.5W 14.1N 103.1W
BAMM 12.8N 104.4W 13.1N 104.4W 13.3N 104.1W 13.9N 104.3W
LBAR 12.8N 104.4W 12.9N 104.4W 13.6N 104.0W 14.7N 103.6W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 75KTS 76KTS
DSHP 55KTS 68KTS 75KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061117 0000 061118 0000 061119 0000 061120 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 102.7W 18.4N 101.9W 21.2N 101.7W 23.5N 93.8W
BAMM 15.0N 104.7W 17.1N 106.2W 19.2N 109.3W 19.6N 111.8W
LBAR 15.9N 102.6W 19.2N 100.7W 22.5N 97.5W 25.6N 89.5W
SHIP 76KTS 69KTS 63KTS 54KTS
DSHP 76KTS 69KTS 63KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 104.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 104.5W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 104.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM


15/0000 UTC 12.8N 104.3W T3.5/3.5 SERGIO -- East Pacific Ocean

Almost a hurricane according to the 00:00z models and SSD dvorak T numbers.

[Aslkahuna]

EPAC has more names on their list than the ATL since for one they have X,Y, and Z names. In 1992, they ran the course with the last storm having the Z name. I believe that double Greeks would be used if they went past the Z name.

Steve

[cycloneye]

161
WTPZ41 KNHC 150236
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 PM PST TUE NOV 14 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55
KT IN LINE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAKING SERGIO A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
GETS TRICKY AS THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF SERGIO WOULD TAKE THE
CYCLONE INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY. THE GFDL
MODEL INDICATES ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAKING SERGIO A STRONG
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS WHILE THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE SHOW WEAKENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE
GFDL MODEL CAN SOMETIMES BE RATHER INSENSITIVE TO VERTICAL
SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE LATTER MODELS.

SERGIO HAS SHOWN LITTLE OR NO MOTION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN
MOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AS A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE FORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN
AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY OR DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE AS ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD
MOTION WOULD TAKE SERGIO INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
A STRONG AND DEEP CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL. CONVERSELY...A WEAK AND
SHALLOW CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE GFS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A REPRESENTATIVE VORTEX AND THE GFDL'S INTENSITY
APPEARS TOO STRONG GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED VERTICAL SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 12.8N 104.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 12.8N 104.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 13.1N 103.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 14.6N 103.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 104.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

The last hurricane in the EPac in November was Hurricane Octave of 2001, which formed October 31 and became a hurricane November 2. The last hurricane to form in EPac in November was Hurricane Rick in 1997, which formed November 7 and became a hurricane the next day.

[Chacor]

SHIPS no longer forecasts a hurricane.

Code: Select all

571
WHXX01 KMIA 150640
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL STORM     SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061115  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061115  0600   061115  1800   061116  0600   061116  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.7N 104.3W   12.3N 104.1W   12.3N 103.7W   13.0N 103.2W
  BAMM    12.7N 104.3W   12.5N 104.3W   12.5N 104.4W   13.1N 104.5W
  LBAR    12.7N 104.3W   12.9N 103.8W   13.8N 103.4W   15.0N 103.0W
  SHIP        55KTS          58KTS          61KTS          59KTS
  DSHP        55KTS          58KTS          61KTS          59KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061117  0600   061118  0600   061119  0600   061120  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.1N 102.5W   16.7N 101.8W   19.8N 101.2W   21.7N  95.2W
  BAMM    14.1N 104.6W   16.2N 105.6W   18.4N 107.8W   18.1N 110.0W
  LBAR    16.4N 102.3W   19.2N 100.9W   21.8N  98.1W   24.6N  90.8W
  SHIP        58KTS          55KTS          52KTS          45KTS
  DSHP        58KTS          55KTS          52KTS          45KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  12.7N LONCUR = 104.3W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR =   1KT
  LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 = 104.5W DIRM12 = 136DEG SPDM12 =   1KT
  LATM24 =  12.8N LONM24 = 104.4W
  WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   50KT
  CENPRS =  994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =   40NM RD34SW =   40NM RD34NW =  40NM
 
 $$