November 15: Tornado Outbreak - Southeast US - 9 killed

[senorpepr]

Here's the aviation SIGMET (12C) for the active area of convection:

WSUS32 KKCI 142255
SIGC
CONVECTIVE SIGMET 12C
VALID UNTIL 0055Z
AL MS LA
FROM 30E MEI-50WSW MGM-40NE MSY-20NNW BTR-30E MEI
AREA SEV EMBD TS MOV FROM 26025KT. TOPS TO FL450.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 IN...WIND GUSTS TO 70KT POSS.

[senorpepr]

Slidell launched another balloon at 19Z:



A pretty nasty cap down there... I really don't see a significant outbreak--still. As I've said before... thunderstorms--yes, but nothing to really call grandma about.

[senorpepr]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 849...

VALID 142349Z - 150045Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS/TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS
SERN LA AT THIS TIME. REMAINING PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 849 WILL
PROBABLY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z.

PLUME OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE
NWRN GULF INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
AT THIS HOUR AS DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. BASED ON LATEST
SURFACE AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA...THE BULK OF ONGOING CONVECTION
FROM ERN LA ACROSS MS/AL WAS ROOTED WELL ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD STILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL PRODUCTION. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS
DIGGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND EXPECT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THE SRN LA/MS
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 11/14/2006

[Aquawind]

747 WFUS54 KLIX 150029 TORLIX MSC109-150100- /O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0071.061115T0028Z-061115T0100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 628 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI * UNTIL 700 PM CST * AT 626 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER PEARL RIVER COUNTY...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF POPLARVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LAT...LON 3077 8965 3066 8960 3066 8934 3083 8935

[CrazyC83]

Here comes the main event:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...SRN AR....NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 150046Z - 150245Z

SEVERE TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT FROM SERN OK AND THE
ARKLATEX...NEWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AR. A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY
WITHIN A FEW HOURS...PERHAPS SOONER IF ROBUST STORM INITIATION
OCCURS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PNHDLS
ATTM AND IS FCST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. AS 80-90KT MID
LEVEL JET PIVOTS ACROSS NWRN TX...SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT
990MB SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER WRN OK...WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG
A WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND EXPECT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE WARM FRONT
FROM ERN OK ACROSS AR.

UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT REGARD STORM INITIATION AND POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OK SHOULD
DEEPEN IN VERTICAL EXTENT AS COUPLING BETWEEN UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASES OVER THE COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...FROM SERN OK INTO
AR...AS THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERCOMES WEAK INHIBITION
THESE AREAS. INITIAL STORM UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION DEPICTED IN LATEST OBSERVED AND FCST
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OK/AR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND INTENSE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR AND EAST OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LATER
TONIGHT...SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE RAPIDLY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MODIFICATION OCCURS FROM SERN OK ACROSS THE AR/LA BORDER. A
TORNADO WATCH APPEARS MOST PRUDENT FOR THIS SCENARIO. AFTER REVIEW
OF EARLY 00Z MODEL OUTPUT AND COORDINATION...A WATCH ISSUANCE IS
EXPECTED AROUND/BEFORE 0400Z.

..CARBIN.. 11/15/2006

[CrazyC83]

I'd expect Tornado Watch 850 (PDS?) by 9:00 pm local time.

Those in the region should sleep with a weather radio.

[Opal storm]

I'd expect Tornado Watch 850 (PDS?) by 9:00 pm local time.

Those in the region should sleep with a weather radio.

I know I will have my NOAA radio by my bed tonight.There's some pretty nasty storms just west of Mobile that appear to be heading in my direction.

[senorpepr]

While a tornado watch is possible, I seriously doubt that it will be PDS. I don't see any evidence of this being remotely a PDS.


With that said...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...SRN AR....NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 150046Z - 150245Z

SEVERE TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT FROM SERN OK AND THE
ARKLATEX...NEWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AR. A TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY
WITHIN A FEW HOURS...PERHAPS SOONER IF ROBUST STORM INITIATION
OCCURS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PNHDLS
ATTM AND IS FCST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. AS 80-90KT MID
LEVEL JET PIVOTS ACROSS NWRN TX...SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT
990MB SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER WRN OK...WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG
A WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND EXPECT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE WARM FRONT
FROM ERN OK ACROSS AR.

UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT REGARD STORM INITIATION AND POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OK SHOULD
DEEPEN IN VERTICAL EXTENT AS COUPLING BETWEEN UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASES OVER THE COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...FROM SERN OK INTO
AR...AS THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERCOMES WEAK INHIBITION
THESE AREAS. INITIAL STORM UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION DEPICTED IN LATEST OBSERVED AND FCST
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OK/AR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND INTENSE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR AND EAST OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LATER
TONIGHT...SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE RAPIDLY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MODIFICATION OCCURS FROM SERN OK ACROSS THE AR/LA BORDER. A
TORNADO WATCH APPEARS MOST PRUDENT FOR THIS SCENARIO. AFTER REVIEW
OF EARLY 00Z MODEL OUTPUT AND COORDINATION...A WATCH ISSUANCE IS
EXPECTED AROUND/BEFORE 0400Z.

..CARBIN.. 11/15/2006

[CrazyC83]

I hate to say this, but this has a "worst-case scenario" feel brewing:

1) This event should take place overnight, when everyone is asleep.

2) Many people in this area are in FEMA trailers. Parks dot the landscape, both of local residents and transplanted Greater New Orleans residents. Even a low-end F2 will demolish a trailer and an F1 will do severe damage. Even an F0 tornado can significantly damage them.

3) The inconsistency in forecasts make this less of a sure-fire event and more of a possibility than a certainty.

Anyone living in the Gulf Coast states inland to about I-40 and west of I-55 especially should sleep with a weather radio for sure (in a basement is a good idea), and if in a weak structure, go elsewhere.

[MississippiHurricane]

You just never know. Local mets saying strong tornadoes even (Jackson Ms area) and should hit here between 6am to 11am Central time here. And just the time I have to drive 30 miles to work

[MississippiHurricane]

New Tornado watch just west of me until 6am cental time

[rsdoug1981]

MissHurricane,

I'm between Madison and Canton, and I'm a little concerned, too. I'm thinking that the folks in Delta region are going to have a few more issues than we will. While tornadoes aren't out of the question here, I think our biggest concern will be the hail and strong wind threat with the squall line. Nevertheless, it's going to be a long night.

Edited to add: The above Mesoscale discussion gives me a little hope as the main focus of the instability should stay to our north and west.

[senorpepr]

I hate to say this, but this has a "worst-case scenario" feel brewing:

1) This event should take place overnight, when everyone is asleep.

2) Many people in this area are in FEMA trailers. Parks dot the landscape, both of local residents and transplanted Greater New Orleans residents. Even a low-end F2 will demolish a trailer and an F1 will do severe damage. Even an F0 tornado can significantly damage them.

3) The inconsistency in forecasts make this less of a sure-fire event and more of a possibility than a certainty.

Anyone living in the Gulf Coast states inland to about I-40 and west of I-55 especially should sleep with a weather radio for sure (in a basement is a good idea), and if in a weak structure, go elsewhere.

I know you're from Canada and may not be up-to-speed on what is going on across the South... but few people in this area are in FEMA trailers. Parks may dot the landscape, but to say 1% of the threat area consists of FEMA parks is an over-exaggeration. Furthermore, tornadoes cover such a small area. The likelihood of one tornado hitting a FEMA park is probably lower than the likelihood of winning the lottery.

Furthermore, your suggestion of going into a basement is silly, with all due respect. Have you studied the topography in this part of the world? Few people in the South have basements. Why would folks in Southern Louisiana and Mississippi have a basement unless they wanted an indoor swimming pool?

These folks know how to survive a storm. It's okay. There is no need to raise the panic flag. As a person who has lived in Tornado Alley for much of his life... this isn't a scenario to freak out about. Yes, some vigilance is required, but nothing to panic over.


---
Nominate for Storm2k MOTM -- NOW!!!
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 74#1490174

[CrazyC83]

Just in: PDS Tornado Watch

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INTO PART OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN INTO PART OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THIS
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
90 KT H5 JET MAX. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SRN OK INTO
SWRN AR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH NNWWD EXTENSION OF NEAR 70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. STORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOME ROOTED INTO A SHALLOW STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP ASCENT. DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR FIRST INTO SRN AR AND POSSIBLY FAR NERN TX/SERN OK...AND MAY
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY INCREASES INTO NERN/CENTRAL LA.
INTENSE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS STORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...EVANS


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INTO PART OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN INTO PART OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THIS
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
90 KT H5 JET MAX. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SRN OK INTO
SWRN AR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH NNWWD EXTENSION OF NEAR 70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. STORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOME ROOTED INTO A SHALLOW STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP ASCENT. DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR FIRST INTO SRN AR AND POSSIBLY FAR NERN TX/SERN OK...AND MAY
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY INCREASES INTO NERN/CENTRAL LA.
INTENSE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS STORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...EVANS


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 150316
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

TORNADO WATCH 850 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-091-097-099-103-109-113-133-139-151200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0850.061115T0315Z-061115T1200Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE POLK SEVIER
UNION


LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-
073-083-107-111-119-123-127-151200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0850.061115T0315Z-061115T1200Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN


OKC089-151200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0850.061115T0315Z-061115T1200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MCCURTAIN


TXC037-063-067-315-343-387-449-151200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0850.061115T0315Z-061115T1200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CAMP CASS
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...JAN...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW0
WW 850 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 150315Z - 151200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35SW DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/ - 55ENE MLU/MONROE LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /40WNW TXK - 48ENE MLU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.

LAT...LON 34849483 33979115 31659115 32529483

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.


Watch 850 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[senorpepr]

Honestly, I feel the only reason why this is a PDS is because of nocturnal tornadoes.

[dean]

i dont really see much more happening tonight. greatest instability is south of the watch, best initiation is south of the watch, directional shear looks like sh*t inside the watch, dew points are in the lower sixties, not like areas south of the watch where dew points were in the upper sixties and low seventies, mid and low level lapse rates aren't real high. i'm just not seeing much else happening tonight.

[CrazyC83]

I hate to say this, but this has a "worst-case scenario" feel brewing:

1) This event should take place overnight, when everyone is asleep.

2) Many people in this area are in FEMA trailers. Parks dot the landscape, both of local residents and transplanted Greater New Orleans residents. Even a low-end F2 will demolish a trailer and an F1 will do severe damage. Even an F0 tornado can significantly damage them.

3) The inconsistency in forecasts make this less of a sure-fire event and more of a possibility than a certainty.

Anyone living in the Gulf Coast states inland to about I-40 and west of I-55 especially should sleep with a weather radio for sure (in a basement is a good idea), and if in a weak structure, go elsewhere.

I know you're from Canada and may not be up-to-speed on what is going on across the South... but few people in this area are in FEMA trailers. Parks may dot the landscape, but to say 1% of the threat area consists of FEMA parks is an over-exaggeration. Furthermore, tornadoes cover such a small area. The likelihood of one tornado hitting a FEMA park is probably lower than the likelihood of winning the lottery.

Furthermore, your suggestion of going into a basement is silly, with all due respect. Have you studied the topography in this part of the world? Few people in the South have basements. Why would folks in Southern Louisiana and Mississippi have a basement unless they wanted an indoor swimming pool?

These folks know how to survive a storm. It's okay. There is no need to raise the panic flag. As a person who has lived in Tornado Alley for much of his life... this isn't a scenario to freak out about. Yes, some vigilance is required, but nothing to panic over.

I kinda forgot about the basements, being most familiar with the East and Midwest (and the fact that the water table here is about as low as it gets anywhere, being on solid, prehistoric rock).

As for the FEMA trailers, remember Evansville? While the chances are low, that is a long way from zero.

[CrazyC83]

Honestly, I feel the only reason why this is a PDS is because of nocturnal tornadoes.

Agreed, but the 70% chance of a major tornado mentioned in the probabilities is in PDS territory.

[senorpepr]

Yeah... and 44% of those "chances" are made up. It's not a scientific number. It's a guess. They can adjust that number upwards to make it PDS-worthy.

[dean]

i dont see why they are thinking tornado, especially PDS. EVERYTHING IN ARKANSAS IS LINEAR! not only that, but like i said before, dp's only from 55-64 throughout the entire watch. only reason i can see a tornado happening is that LCL's are really low, so it wont take a whole lot of moisture to form a tornado, but first you need SHEAR to form supercells to produce tornadoes, and that isn't there.