SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[JenBayles]

Figures, doesn't it Yankee? I am currently watering my very dry roses. Bummer! And by the way, I HATE this wind! Seems like every last speck of dust finds its way into my contacts.

[Yankeegirl]

I know! It is very windy out here!! I was kinda hoping for some rain or storms tonight, but nothing like we had last Friday night, did you get slammed over there too?

[Extremeweatherguy]

our latest forecast from WEATHER.COM for tomorrow goes like this:

"Sunny and windy. High near 65F. Winds NW at 20 to 30mph. Winds could occassionally gust over 40mph"

65 degrees with gusts to 40-45mph will feel quite chilly tomorrow! Also, I would not be surprised to see a bit of minor damage with gusts that high.

[Yankeegirl]

What about any storms moving through here tonight EWG... any thoughts?

[Extremeweatherguy]

What about any storms moving through here tonight EWG... any thoughts?

I think a squall line will likely form along the cold front and then begin to strengthen over SE Texas. From about our area eastward there seems to be a slight risk of a severe storm along the line.

it all really depends on how well the cap holds.

The best severe chance will be in LA.

[Extremeweatherguy]

does anyone understand how the Houston AFD can say this:

WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW AREAWIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
EXPECT A FUTURE SHIFT TO ISSUE THIS PRODUCT ONCE THE WIND EVENT
NEARS.

and then forecast this:

Northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Doesn't make any sense to me..

[Portastorm]

I dunno EWG. Our forecast guys are saying sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 tomorrow!

[CaptinCrunch]

I dunno EWG. Our forecast guys are saying sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 tomorrow!

we have the same forecast for winds. Our forecast high is 63 for tomorrow but I dout it gets out of the upper 50's, and with the strong north wind it will feel more like upper 40's all day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I dunno EWG. Our forecast guys are saying sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 tomorrow!

yeah, and I bet that is what we end up seeing too. It is just strange to me that our NWS would say gusts to 40mph+ in the AFD and then not reflect that on the actual forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

winds are already kicking up across the state. Currently in the panhandle they are whippin' at about tropical storm strength with gusts up to over 50mph!

It is also quite breezy here as well. About 10-20mph sustained with gusts to 20-25mph at times. If we are already this strong BEFORE the front, then I can only imagine what tomorrow may bring. I have a feeling I will be seeing a few gusts to 40-45mph before this is over with..

These winds should also help clear out many of the leaves, meaning the landscape may take on more of a "wintery" look by Thursday morning.

update: I have starting a new thread to discuss the wind event in the state of Texas as a whole. It is amazing some of the latest windspeeds coming in from the panhandle (gusting to the middle 60s!). However, feel free to post local SE Texas wind issues here as well.

[jasons2k]

We'll be in for some gusty winds - wouldn't be surprised to see some gusts near 40mph.

The winds won't be as high here as at points N and NW of here and the forecast should (and does) reflect that...but they do need to raise it a notch IMO.

[JenBayles]

Maybe it'll finally knock the last of the blasted acorns out of my oak tree. I've only been saying that for 2 months now. Maybe the tree knows something the NWS doesn't - I have Never seen a bumper crop of acorns like this come out of this tree. The squirrels won't be going hungry this winter for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

discussion update in from Austin:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

.UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO EXTRAPOLATE TRENDS OF WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE SEASON LOOMS AHEAD FOR
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE, SURFACE AND RADAR DATA AT 845
PM, THE APEX OF THE ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS BEARING DOWN
ON I-20 NEAR BIG SPRINGS, AND A BETTER DEFINED FRONTAL FEATURE
NEAR LBB WAS RACING SOUTH TO CATCH UP WITH THE LEADING WIND
SHIFT. THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED WHEN IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS FROM THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
GUST TO OVER 35 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS, BUT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
THE STRONGER GUSTS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. ALL COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 6 AM. DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING, TEMPS WILL
HOLD NEARLY STEADY AS DAYTIME HEATING OFFSETS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE THREAT OF THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON CONTINUES
FOR MAINLY THE HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT (SEE SPSEWX).

I am still awaiting Houston's update though. It should be out at any time..

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, check out the latest DFW discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO FOLLOW...WE WILL INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THIS IS
BELOW A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT STILL VERY SIGNIFICANT. WE WILL ALSO
ADJUST THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.

That forecast is A LOT higher than the earlier one. May be this will cause other areas to increase theirs too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the Houston AFD update doesn't answer too many questions except for the fact that they WILL issue a wind advisory with the next package:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
931 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS WE AWAIT THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT...THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. THERE REMAINS
A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AS THIS STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...BUT THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT ISSUE THE ADVISORY
WITH THEIR EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. 42

[KatDaddy]

Wow. Its headed southward...30-40MPH gust to 55MPH is up there in windspeeds. I am expecting gusts between 40-50MPH in the Houston area tomorrow as the Big Dig moves south and then east.

[KatDaddy]

Houston-Galveston is buying time and waiting for the morning shift to hoist the advisory. Botttom line..the wind machine will crank across SE TX tomorrow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. Its headed southward...30-40MPH gust to 55MPH is up there in windspeeds. I am expecting gusts between 40-50MPH in the Houston area tomorrow as the Big Dig moves south and then east.

I think so too. Check out the weather forecast the DFW NWS has for Hearne, TX (just NW of College station) for tonight:

Overnight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Windy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to between 30 and 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

I think our forecast may wind up similar to this one for tomorrow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

winds were really whippin' here a few minutes ago. They have calmed down a bit now, but they should really start getting worse in a few hours.

[KatDaddy]

The winds will be howling across most of Texas gusting between 40-50MPH. Gusty winds here in League City.......around 30MPH