El Nino Bust...El Nada underway!

[azsnowman]

I know this is "supposed" to be an El Nino year but all indications, animals etc are pointing to yet ANOTHER "Bust O' Rama!"....the pattern is hitting the NORPAC as usual, the jet is right THERE...just above the Az/Utah border. Can't complain TOO much however, we had a record breaking monsoon but that's it, the days of wet winters are over here in Northern Az. That's normally the way it works, a dry warm winter follows a wet to record breaking monsoon..... all that remains is "I'm dreaming of a White Christmas, just like the one's I used to know, where the tree tops glisten and children listen to hear sleigh bells in the snow!"


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 132158 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 255 PM MST MON NOV 13 2006 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ON TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

[azsnowman]

I know it's WAY too early to call it BUST but given the track history of the past 10 winters, the jet stream position this time of year, the way the elk, deer and other critters are acting.....it's going to be a DRY winter....if it's NOT, I swear, I'll eat my SHORTS and post pics!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think this will be a strong el nino by any means. Right now I would say that it looks like a weak el nino is most likely. However, I do think the storm track will be more towards your area by later in the season. CERTAINLY no where near the dry winter of last year for you guys.

[Wacahootaman]

El Ninos normally bring us lots of winter rain in North Florida.

So far this year it has been super dry with most of the fronts comming through dry.

[Aquawind]

Maybe a whimpy Nino thus far but it's still fall.. Can't wait to see those pics Dennis.. Please don't be wearing them at the time..

[Portastorm]

El Nino, El Schmeenyo ... it hasn't really rained here in Austin, TX, in more than 3 weeks.

The active jet is hammering the Pacific NW and that's it.

This El Nino is about as imposing as my Texas Longhorns' woeful pass defense ...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This El Nino is about as imposing as my Texas Longhorns' woeful pass defense ...

He, he Boy, ain't that the truth. Let's just say I'm glad my TV does not have a glass screen. That's how ticked off I was Saturday.

[Jim Hughes]

Most people thought the El Nino would be weak to moderate this winter . As far as November. A northerly pacific storm track is pretty much par for the course with these current conditions.

[Nimbus]

Global SST anomolies are currently fairly warm near the equator. Off Peru it is up to 1.86 degrees centigrade above normal. A little cooler further north but lows are only -.743 C in the mid latitudes.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

I'm not sure what the trend is in the mid latitude Pacific warming or cooling. The low latitude anomolies have definately been rising over the last week.

Anyone have a link to one of those neat dynamic time lapse anomolies views over the last few weeks?

[Portastorm]

Most people thought the El Nino would be weak to moderate this winter . As far as November. A northerly pacific storm track is pretty much par for the course with these current conditions.

Jim -- is it "par for the course" for the jet to sink further south as winter progresses during a weak to moderate El Nino?

[Scott Patterson]

It's all my fault. I made a wish that the weather would be dry in November because my four year old son and I are doing a big six day trip to the Grand Canyon next week and it includes backpacking the Hance/Grandview Loop.

As soon as our trip is over, I'll unwish the wish for you.

[Aslkahuna]

The CPC site has an animation of the SST anomalies.

Steve

[Aquawind]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... ce%20anals

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/vis/tao-vis.html

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.current.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... enso.shtml

Enjoy!!

[breeze]

...it's going to be a DRY winter....if it's NOT, I swear, I'll eat my SHORTS and post pics!

I'll toast a few margaritas to those pics, Dennis!

[bob rulz]

It's still November; the pattern will change, eventually.

Look at hurricane activity in the East Pacific and compare it to the Atlantic; shouldn't that be enough?

[azsnowman]

DAM....it's HOT (well, for the middle of November at least) hit a HIGH of 73°, that's ONLY 17° ABOVE normal and it's ONLY supposed to get WARMER by Thanksgiving! It's so dry again...the 23+" of rain we received during the monsoon season is all but gone...l'm not holding my breath but who knows! The signs of wildlife I'm seeing is pointing to a very dry, VERY warm winter again, this will make for year number 11 without any snowpack.

[azsnowman]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz


SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING TO DECREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING OFF THE BAJA COAST TO BOTH BUILD INTO THE SWRN U.S. (SUNDAY) AND THEN MIGRATE SLOWLY ACROSS AZ (MONDAY AND TUESDAY). OUR AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY STARTING MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS CONTINUING.