CrazyC83 wrote:"Worst devastation ever seen in our lifetimes" - WSFA
I'm watching it on TV(WSFA is my NBC affiliate). Sounds pretty bad.
November 15: Tornado Outbreak - Southeast US - 9 killed
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151714Z - 151845Z
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS MIDDLE TN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW IN NE AR WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO WRN TN AND SRN KY. A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE TN RIVER IN WRN TN. A
GAP IN THE RAINFALL IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NASHVILLE AREA AND THIS
MAY ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THE WARMING SFC TEMPS MAY ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW THE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE
SCNTRL PART OF TN. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR.
..BROYLES.. 11/15/2006
ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...
35078581 34958675 35118728 35568757 36088741 36568691
36658629 36578578 36348542 35898534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151714Z - 151845Z
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS MIDDLE TN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW IN NE AR WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO WRN TN AND SRN KY. A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE TN RIVER IN WRN TN. A
GAP IN THE RAINFALL IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NASHVILLE AREA AND THIS
MAY ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THE WARMING SFC TEMPS MAY ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SHOW THE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE
SCNTRL PART OF TN. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR.
..BROYLES.. 11/15/2006
ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...
35078581 34958675 35118728 35568757 36088741 36568691
36658629 36578578 36348542 35898534
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CrazyC83 wrote:Lindaloo wrote:No real bad weather in Pascagoula yet. The sun came out for about an hour. lol.
I heard there were a couple possible tornadoes around there last night...
I slept through them, I guess.
Although, you were right about this being a worse case scenario because of the storms hitting while people were sleeping.
One man was killed and several people injured.
http://www.wlox.com/Global/story.asp?S=5685358
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Lindaloo wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Lindaloo wrote:No real bad weather in Pascagoula yet. The sun came out for about an hour. lol.
I heard there were a couple possible tornadoes around there last night...
I slept through them, I guess.
Although, you were right about this being a worse case scenario because of the storms hitting while people were sleeping.
One man was killed and several people injured.
http://www.wlox.com/Global/story.asp?S=5685358
That's sad; I hadn't heard about any fatalities.
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A school in Ocean Springs (Jackson County) was damaged this morning, but no injuries reported.
If I had to take a guess, the school was probably weakened from Katrina.
In the MS. coastal communities, we have to watch for waterspouts that move onshore. These storms are moving NE and coming out of the gulf, at least for us anyway.
My boss lives on 30 acres in North Mobile County and I have not been able to get in touch with them by radio or phone.
If I had to take a guess, the school was probably weakened from Katrina.
In the MS. coastal communities, we have to watch for waterspouts that move onshore. These storms are moving NE and coming out of the gulf, at least for us anyway.
My boss lives on 30 acres in North Mobile County and I have not been able to get in touch with them by radio or phone.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Lindaloo wrote:A school in Ocean Springs (Jackson County) was damaged this morning, but no injuries reported.
If I had to take a guess, the school was probably weakened from Katrina.
In the MS. coastal communities, we have to watch for waterspouts that move onshore. These storms are moving NE and coming out of the gulf, at least for us anyway.
My boss lives on 30 acres in North Mobile County and I have not been able to get in touch with them by radio or phone.
That seems to make sense. While those are normally weak, it doesn't take much to take down trees and some buildings after Katrina.
Bad accident has closed I-85 in Montgomery, possibly tornado-related.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WCENTRAL/SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151731Z - 151830Z
CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS ECENTRAL
AND SERN AL /PORTIONS OF WW 858/. GIVEN RECENT STORM MOTIONS AROUND
35 KTS AND DESTABILIZATION TRENDS...ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY
BEFORE 19Z IN SWRN AND WCENTRAL GA.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR GADSEN AL
SSEWD TO NEAR ALBANY GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HRS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN/ERN GA. AIRMASS TO THE
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S F. STRATIFORM RAIN MAY TEND TO INHIBIT SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR
SFC BASED CONVECTION OVER ECENTRAL AL TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT OVER
PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL GA PRIOR TO 19Z. LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SWRN GA
SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THIS AREA.
..CROSBIE.. 11/15/2006
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...
30698480 32078504 33018514 33738525 33738469 33718379
32398356 30598349
It's about time that a tornado watch is issued for Georgia. Probably not PDS, but you never know.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WCENTRAL/SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151731Z - 151830Z
CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS ECENTRAL
AND SERN AL /PORTIONS OF WW 858/. GIVEN RECENT STORM MOTIONS AROUND
35 KTS AND DESTABILIZATION TRENDS...ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY
BEFORE 19Z IN SWRN AND WCENTRAL GA.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR GADSEN AL
SSEWD TO NEAR ALBANY GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HRS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN/ERN GA. AIRMASS TO THE
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S F. STRATIFORM RAIN MAY TEND TO INHIBIT SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR
SFC BASED CONVECTION OVER ECENTRAL AL TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT OVER
PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL GA PRIOR TO 19Z. LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SWRN GA
SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THIS AREA.
..CROSBIE.. 11/15/2006
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...
30698480 32078504 33018514 33738525 33738469 33718379
32398356 30598349
It's about time that a tornado watch is issued for Georgia. Probably not PDS, but you never know.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Interior wall office only walls that stood at Fun Zone - likely an F2-F3
http://www.funzoneskatecenter.com/site/
http://www.funzoneskatecenter.com/site/
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LA
GRANGE GEORGIA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 857...WW 858...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES INTO WRN GA/FL
PANHANDLE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG JET MAX ROTATING
ACROSS MID GULF COAST WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...HALES
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LA
GRANGE GEORGIA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 857...WW 858...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES INTO WRN GA/FL
PANHANDLE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG JET MAX ROTATING
ACROSS MID GULF COAST WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 151812
WOU9
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006
TORNADO WATCH 859 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
FLC029-037-039-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0859.061115T1815Z-061116T0300Z/
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR
WAKULLA
GAC007-017-019-021-023-027-035-037-053-061-071-075-077-079-081-
087-093-095-099-131-145-149-153-155-159-169-171-173-177-185-193-
197-199-201-205-207-215-225-231-235-239-243-249-253-255-259-261-
263-269-273-275-277-285-287-289-293-307-315-321-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0859.061115T1815Z-061116T0300Z/
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BIBB BLECKLEY BROOKS
BUTTS CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLAY COLQUITT COOK
COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP
DECATUR DOOLY DOUGHERTY
EARLY GRADY HARRIS
HEARD HOUSTON IRWIN
JASPER JONES LAMAR
LANIER LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARION MERIWETHER
MILLER MITCHELL MONROE
MUSCOGEE PEACH PIKE
PULASKI QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SCHLEY SEMINOLE SPALDING
STEWART SUMTER TALBOT
TAYLOR TERRELL THOMAS
TIFT TROUP TURNER
TWIGGS UPSON WEBSTER
WILCOX WORTH
GMZ755-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0859.061115T1815Z-061116T0300Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM
ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 859 TORNADO FL GA 151815Z - 160300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE LGC/LA GRANGE GA/ - 70SSE TLH/TALLAHASSEE FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /25S ATL - 45W CTY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
LAT...LON 33228356 29458306 29458473 33228530
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 859 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LA
GRANGE GEORGIA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 857...WW 858...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES INTO WRN GA/FL
PANHANDLE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG JET MAX ROTATING
ACROSS MID GULF COAST WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...HALES
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LA
GRANGE GEORGIA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 857...WW 858...
DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES INTO WRN GA/FL
PANHANDLE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG JET MAX ROTATING
ACROSS MID GULF COAST WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 151812
WOU9
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006
TORNADO WATCH 859 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
FLC029-037-039-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0859.061115T1815Z-061116T0300Z/
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR
WAKULLA
GAC007-017-019-021-023-027-035-037-053-061-071-075-077-079-081-
087-093-095-099-131-145-149-153-155-159-169-171-173-177-185-193-
197-199-201-205-207-215-225-231-235-239-243-249-253-255-259-261-
263-269-273-275-277-285-287-289-293-307-315-321-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0859.061115T1815Z-061116T0300Z/
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BIBB BLECKLEY BROOKS
BUTTS CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLAY COLQUITT COOK
COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP
DECATUR DOOLY DOUGHERTY
EARLY GRADY HARRIS
HEARD HOUSTON IRWIN
JASPER JONES LAMAR
LANIER LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARION MERIWETHER
MILLER MITCHELL MONROE
MUSCOGEE PEACH PIKE
PULASKI QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SCHLEY SEMINOLE SPALDING
STEWART SUMTER TALBOT
TAYLOR TERRELL THOMAS
TIFT TROUP TURNER
TWIGGS UPSON WEBSTER
WILCOX WORTH
GMZ755-160300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0859.061115T1815Z-061116T0300Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM
ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 859 TORNADO FL GA 151815Z - 160300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE LGC/LA GRANGE GA/ - 70SSE TLH/TALLAHASSEE FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /25S ATL - 45W CTY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
LAT...LON 33228356 29458306 29458473 33228530
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 859 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151846Z - 152045Z
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT
1-3 HRS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 990 SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR MEM. AN AXIS
OF MID LEVEL DRYING ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
HAS SUPPORTED ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW MODEST SFC HEATING OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN TN AND NERN MS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 F. INSPECTIONS OF THE LAST
SEVERAL HRS OF TAMDAR DATA FROM AIRCRAFT APPROACHING/LEAVING KMEM
INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH HAD BEEN VERY
PRONOUNCED A FEW HRS AGO OVER SWRN TN/NRN MS...WAS BEGINNING TO
ERODE BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ELIMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS MID LEVEL INVERSION. ALONG
WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL HEATING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES OVER NERN MS
AND PORTIONS OF WRN TN ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD/WARM FRONTS LOCATED OVER
NERN MS AND WRN TN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1
KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/ JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND ALONG WARM
FRONT OVER WRN TN MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. BUT THE MAIN SVR
THREAT WITH ANY TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.
..CROSBIE.. 11/15/2006
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...
35868801 35798894 35718940 35459001 34708983 34308944
34328850 34468815 34918801 35678790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151846Z - 152045Z
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT
1-3 HRS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 990 SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR MEM. AN AXIS
OF MID LEVEL DRYING ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
HAS SUPPORTED ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW MODEST SFC HEATING OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN TN AND NERN MS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 F. INSPECTIONS OF THE LAST
SEVERAL HRS OF TAMDAR DATA FROM AIRCRAFT APPROACHING/LEAVING KMEM
INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH HAD BEEN VERY
PRONOUNCED A FEW HRS AGO OVER SWRN TN/NRN MS...WAS BEGINNING TO
ERODE BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ELIMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS MID LEVEL INVERSION. ALONG
WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL HEATING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES OVER NERN MS
AND PORTIONS OF WRN TN ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD/WARM FRONTS LOCATED OVER
NERN MS AND WRN TN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1
KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/ JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND ALONG WARM
FRONT OVER WRN TN MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. BUT THE MAIN SVR
THREAT WITH ANY TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.
..CROSBIE.. 11/15/2006
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...
35868801 35798894 35718940 35459001 34708983 34308944
34328850 34468815 34918801 35678790
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858...
VALID 151848Z - 151945Z
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AL AND EXPAND EWD
INTO SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW IN NW MS WITH STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS LOCATED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE FALL CENTER IN SE AL
ATTM. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FALL CENTER AND IS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF
A 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. WSR-88D VWPS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE
DOTHAM AREA OF FAR SE AL SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES
EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS TORNADOES WILL BE VERY LIKELY
WITH ROTATING STORMS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SW GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING SUPERCELLS
THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 11/15/2006
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
29658492 29868583 30268626 30938629 32428555 32638458
32438386 31818353 30648362 30098393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858...
VALID 151848Z - 151945Z
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AL AND EXPAND EWD
INTO SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW IN NW MS WITH STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS LOCATED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE FALL CENTER IN SE AL
ATTM. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FALL CENTER AND IS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF
A 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. WSR-88D VWPS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE
DOTHAM AREA OF FAR SE AL SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES
EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS TORNADOES WILL BE VERY LIKELY
WITH ROTATING STORMS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SW GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING SUPERCELLS
THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 11/15/2006
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
29658492 29868583 30268626 30938629 32428555 32638458
32438386 31818353 30648362 30098393
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