Tropical Depression Sergio=Last Advisory Written

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150834
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006

MICROWAVE DATA FROM WINDSAT AT 0057Z AND SSM/I AT 0305Z SHOW THAT
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF SERGIO IS ASYMMETRIC...CURRENTLY CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 10 KT...WHICH SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO EXPLAIN THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AFFECT THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY POOR TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAIR TO GOOD
ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 135/1. SERGIO IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF
LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST
AND WEST...AND SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BECOME
A CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24-48
HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SERGIO TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 48 HR...THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF AN EAST-WEST RIDGE FORECAST TO FORM OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NOGAPS TAKES SERGIO INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO
THE WESTERLIES BEFORE THE RIDGE FORMS. THE UKMET TRAPS THE SYSTEM
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO THROUGH 120 HR...
WITH THE OTHER MODELS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN CALLING FOR A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AGREES BEST
WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...
CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM 48-120 HR. THE
NEW TRACK HAS ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE LACK OF A CLOSED EYEWALL AND A LESS
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGEST A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL
NO LONGER CALLS FOR SERGIO TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS SHEAR APPEARS TOO STRONG COMPARED TO
THE FORECAST 200 MB WINDS OF THE GFS...AND THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE STILL FORECAST SERGIO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
IN THE LONGER TERM...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST A
DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO FORM NEAR SERGIO FROM 24-72 HR.
WHAT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON IS HOW MUCH SHEAR THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE. AFTER 72 HR...THE MODELS AGREE THAT SERGIO SHOULD
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR...IF IT IS AS FAR NORTH AS FORECAST.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 12.6N 104.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.1N 103.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 103.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 15.1N 104.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 105.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 106.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

Could look better, certainly. Still 55 kt though...

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061115 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061115 1200 061116 0000 061116 1200 061117 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 104.0W 12.3N 103.5W 13.1N 103.4W 14.4N 103.6W
BAMM 12.3N 104.0W 12.4N 103.7W 12.8N 103.8W 13.8N 104.3W
LBAR 12.3N 104.0W 12.4N 103.6W 13.4N 103.1W 14.8N 102.9W
SHIP 65KTS 68KTS 67KTS 65KTS
DSHP 65KTS 68KTS 67KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061117 1200 061118 1200 061119 1200 061120 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 104.0W 19.0N 106.1W 22.6N 108.5W 24.3N 108.0W
BAMM 14.8N 104.9W 16.9N 107.5W 18.8N 110.2W 18.3N 111.2W
LBAR 16.1N 102.7W 18.2N 102.7W 19.9N 101.5W 21.1N 98.5W
SHIP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 43KTS
DSHP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 140DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 104.4W DIRM12 = 136DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 104.5W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM


We have a hurricane according to the models.

[HURAKAN]

If Sergio becomes a hurricane, then it will be the most latest hurricane in November in the EPAC. It will not be the most latest in record because of Hurricane Winne in 1983 in December.

[Chacor]

[Evil Jeremy]

I noticed that too!

[Chacor]

15
WTPZ41 KNHC 151433
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 4.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE AND IN FACT...AN 1152Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A
SMALL EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 65 KNOTS. SERGIO HAS BECOME THE 10TH HURRICANE
OF THE 2006 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE
OCEAN IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.

SERGIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE
SERGIO TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK GUIDANCE SHOW SERGIO STILL OVER WATER
BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT FIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.1N 103.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W 80 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[WmE]

Guess Sergio is about to see!

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 151635
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
900 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT THAT SERGIO HAS
INTENSIFIED TO 85 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PINHOLE EYE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-T-NUMBERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN A CONSERVATIVELY ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND THE INITIAL AND
12 HOUR WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK
IS INDICATED.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1700Z 12.1N 103.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[cycloneye]

Closeup Sergio Image


Let's observe what mother nature offers us with this hurricane in open waters of the Eastern Pacific in terms of it's impressive structure as it's the only game in town in the world tropical areas.

[cycloneye]

15/1745 UTC 12.0N 103.7W T5.0/5.0 SERGIO -- East Pacific Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Almost a major hurricane.

[WmE]

Phew, that's impressive for a hurricane in mid-november! Surely looking nice with its nice pinhole eye.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061115 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061115 1800 061116 0600 061116 1800 061117 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 103.7W 12.2N 103.1W 13.2N 102.9W 14.6N 103.0W
BAMM 12.0N 103.7W 12.1N 103.5W 12.6N 103.7W 13.4N 103.8W
LBAR 12.0N 103.7W 12.1N 103.0W 13.0N 102.6W 14.2N 102.6W
SHIP 95KTS 109KTS 108KTS 101KTS
DSHP 95KTS 109KTS 108KTS 101KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061117 1800 061118 1800 061119 1800 061120 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 103.4W 19.1N 105.8W 21.6N 107.8W 23.3N 110.2W
BAMM 14.4N 104.4W 16.6N 106.9W 18.2N 109.2W 18.8N 111.2W
LBAR 15.5N 102.6W 18.1N 102.9W 19.3N 101.7W 20.2N 97.3W
SHIP 91KTS 74KTS 60KTS 45KTS
DSHP 91KTS 74KTS 60KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 103.7W DIRCUR = 140DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 104.3W DIRM12 = 142DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 104.5W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 965MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 80NM

95kts.

[AnnularCane]

Is he beautiful or what?

[WmE]

I wonder how strong it can get. SST are very warm near 29C°. Only shear and perhaps the slow movement can hinder further strengthening.

[whereverwx]

Fantastico, Sergio!

[AnnularCane]

He almost looks like he's moving east!

[cycloneye]

242
WTPZ41 KNHC 152031
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006

SERGIO HAS DEVELOPED A TYPICAL HURRICANE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A
DISTINCT BUT SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE
OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF AT LEAST 95 KNOTS. THERE IS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW...BUT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS SERGIO ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 3
DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TAKING A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN FORCING THE HURRICANE
SOUTHEASTWARD IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE SERGIO ON A VERY SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT
BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND CABO CORRIENTES ON MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 4 TO 5
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 12.0N 103.6W 95 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 12.0N 103.3W 100 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 12.8N 103.4W 105 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 103.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 107.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


You are right AnnularCane about the eastward movement.

[whereverwx]

He almost looks like he's moving east!

I noticed that, too, lol, and for a second I thought the loop was reversed.

[HURAKAN]

Stupendous Sergio!!!