SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

Extremeweatherguy · #1 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:10 pm

^^Here is the radar for future use on this thread^^

Extremeweatherguy · #2 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:17 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006

.UPDATE...
WITH THE DEEP SURFACE LOW EDGING A LITTLE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF OUR AREA...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO RELAX A LOT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGHER SPEEDS (BUT MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
DURING THE DAY TODAY...SEE PNSHGX AND LSRHGX FOR PEAK VALUES) PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AND OFFSHORE. THESE HIGHER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE LAST TIME IAH DROPPED UNDER 40 DEGREES WAS BACK ON
MARCH 25TH (36 DEGREES). THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
NIGHT WHEN ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER EXCELLENT AND IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (LITTLE TO NO WIND...AN EXTREMELY DRY
AIRMASS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD). THE RECORD LOWS
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT (SEE BELOW) LOOK TO BE TOO LOW TO BE
THREATENED.

THURSDAY (17TH) FRIDAY (18TH)
CLL 28/1959 24/1959
IAH 31/1997 28/1959
GLS 35/1880 29/1880

SOME NOTES ABOUT THE YEARS MENTIONED ABOVE...
FOR CLL...1959 STANDS AS THEIR 4TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.
FOR IAH...1997 STANDS AS THEIR 5TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.
1959 STANDS AS THEIR 8TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.
FOR GLS...1880 STANDS AS THEIR COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.

The NWS doesn't think Friday morning's 28F will be in jeopardy, but as cold as the middle 30s looks likely. Frost may also be an issue Friday morning with that great radiational cooling. Brrr..

#3 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:36 pm

Yeah - I was able to fish out my hibiscus plant from the pool. The back yard was a mess to say the least.

Anyway, I don't know if this was posted, but here is some wind info:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...

HERE ARE SOME PEAK WIND SPEEDS RECORDED THROUGH 200 PM...

LOCATION PEAK WIND (MPH) TIME OCCURRED (CST)
..............................................................
HUNTSVILLE 41 8:56 AM
COLLEGE STATION 48 10:33 AM
CONROE 47 12:55 PM
TOMBALL 44 9:12 AM
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL 47 11:28 AM
HOBBY AIRPORT 47 12:00 PM
SUGARLAND 45 10:06 AM
PEARLAND 44 10:42 AM
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON 40 12:41 PM
LEAGUE CITY (NWS) 46 1:45 PM
PALACIOS 47 12:27 PM
GALVESTON 51 11:37 AM
BRENHAM 47 11:00 AM
WHARTON 45 1:00 PM
BAY CITY 43 1:00 PM

0220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BACLIFF 29.51N 94.99W
11/15/2006 M63.00 MPH GALVESTON TX PUBLIC

If you think we had it bad, check out the Texas wind thread - I'll post the Panhandle there.

Extremeweatherguy · #4 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:50 pm

latest 0Z GFS now looks much colder for the weekend front. Check out the cold it shows us recieving on Monday morning:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

If we see calm winds then this may challenge tomorrow night's temps.

Johnny · #5 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:21 am

When is this weekends front supposed to roll through? I plan on going to my ranch on Sunday to go hunting.

#6 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:23 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest 0Z GFS now looks much colder for the weekend front. Check out the cold it shows us recieving on Monday morning:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

If we see calm winds then this may challenge tomorrow night's temps.

EWG, that run looks spurious to me. Both the 6z run of the GSF and the 0z Euro show warmer temps than that 0z run. I think its the outlier and I wouldn't trust it at this point until it gets more support.

Everything I'm seeing shows a seasonal pattern this weekend followed by above normal temps Thanksgiving week.

weatherrabbit_tx · #7 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 12:21 pm

jschlitz wrote:Yeah - I was able to fish out my hibiscus plant from the pool. The back yard was a mess to say the least.

Anyway, I don't know if this was posted, but here is some wind info:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...

HERE ARE SOME PEAK WIND SPEEDS RECORDED THROUGH 200 PM...

LOCATION PEAK WIND (MPH) TIME OCCURRED (CST)
..............................................................
HUNTSVILLE 41 8:56 AM
COLLEGE STATION 48 10:33 AM
CONROE 47 12:55 PM
TOMBALL 44 9:12 AM
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL 47 11:28 AM
HOBBY AIRPORT 47 12:00 PM
SUGARLAND 45 10:06 AM
PEARLAND 44 10:42 AM
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON 40 12:41 PM
LEAGUE CITY (NWS) 46 1:45 PM
PALACIOS 47 12:27 PM
GALVESTON 51 11:37 AM
BRENHAM 47 11:00 AM
WHARTON 45 1:00 PM
BAY CITY 43 1:00 PM

0220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BACLIFF 29.51N 94.99W
11/15/2006 M63.00 MPH GALVESTON TX PUBLIC

If you think we had it bad, check out the Texas wind thread - I'll post the Panhandle there.

did I see a quote by Katdaddy that Bay City had a gust of 52?

KatDaddy · #8 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 1:20 pm

Yes. It was the 2PM obs yesterday. I was surprised to the peak gust was only 43.

Extremeweatherguy · #9 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 3:44 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest 0Z GFS now looks much colder for the weekend front. Check out the cold it shows us recieving on Monday morning:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

If we see calm winds then this may challenge tomorrow night's temps.

EWG, that run looks spurious to me. Both the 6z run of the GSF and the 0z Euro show warmer temps than that 0z run. I think its the outlier and I wouldn't trust it at this point until it gets more support.

Everything I'm seeing shows a seasonal pattern this weekend followed by above normal temps Thanksgiving week.

I don't think so. The 12Z GFS run is as cold or colder than the 0Z:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

Looks like Monday morning still may be quite chilly.

BTW, the NWS has our highs forecasted at 62F next Monday (colder than today), which leads me to believe they also think this will be a strong front. 62F is about 6-8F below our average high this time of the year.

Extremeweatherguy · #10 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 3:47 pm

Get your jackets out Houstonians! Check out tonight's forecast:

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 37. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

#11 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 4:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest 0Z GFS now looks much colder for the weekend front. Check out the cold it shows us recieving on Monday morning:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

If we see calm winds then this may challenge tomorrow night's temps.

EWG, that run looks spurious to me. Both the 6z run of the GSF and the 0z Euro show warmer temps than that 0z run. I think its the outlier and I wouldn't trust it at this point until it gets more support.

Everything I'm seeing shows a seasonal pattern this weekend followed by above normal temps Thanksgiving week.
I don't think so. The 12Z GFS run is as cold or colder than the 0Z:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

Looks like Monday morning still may be quite chilly.

BTW, the NWS has our highs forecasted at 62F next Monday (colder than today), which leads me to believe they also think this will be a strong front. 62F is about 6-8F below our average high this time of the year.

I stand corrected ... that appears to be the case. In fact, the Austin/San Antonio NWSFO in their afternoon forecast discussion mentioned the possibility of freezing temps next Tuesday morning.

Anyhow ... good call EWG!!

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 5:54 pm

18Z continues to look chilly as well:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

Extremeweatherguy · #13 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 8:18 pm

I am already down to 43F tonight at 7:20am! At this rate..mid 30s look very likely by morning...may be even lower 30s (33-34F).

Yankeegirl · #14 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 8:21 pm

I am sitting at 50 out right now... Its cold!!
fyi, here on the west side, it got down to 42 here last night... bbrrr!!

Extremeweatherguy · #15 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 8:53 pm

I am now down to 41.7F at 8pm with completely CALM winds in north Houston.

Also, here are the 8pm airport updates:

Hooks = 44F
IAH = 45F
Conroe = 40F
Hobby = 49F
Galveston = 56F

At this rate, a few places will likely hit the 30s before midnight even! I wonder if the NWS will lower overnight temps with their evening AFD update?

Yankeegirl · #16 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:08 pm

I am at 47.7 right now... still cold....

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:40 pm

KHOU.com has Sunday and Monday both with forecasted highs in the 50s! The start to next week could be downright chilly if that plays out!

Yankeegirl · #18 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 10:02 pm

I heard that there is going to be a warm up just in time for Thanksgiving... I really hate having Thanksgiving when its in the 70's out, then I have to turn on the A/C cause the oven heats up the house... Yuck! I hope its cold!!

btw, its 45 out now.... dropping quick!!

ROCK · #19 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 10:10 pm

46 here in Pearland.......

JS- I can relate to the pool mess. I spent an hour cleaning the pool of all the leaves and dirt.

Extremeweatherguy · #20 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 10:20 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
916 PM CST THU NOV 16 2006

.UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES INLAND ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S WITH 50S LINGERING ONLY ALONG
THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A COLD MID-NOVEMBER NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LOOKS GOOD AS NEARLY PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
CURRENT READINGS SUPPORT FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS. A SLIGHT WARMUP
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CORRESPONDING COOLDOWN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A LITTLE BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN (CUTOFF
LOW TO OUR EAST) AND SURFACE FEATURES (HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL) SUPPORT
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SURPRISING
CONSISTENCY IN THIS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL PATTERN OF AN INTENSE AND PROLONGED
EASTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM. IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...WE STAY DRY POSSIBLY
INTO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF NOVEMBER.

SO HOW DRY HAS IT BEEN? THROUGH THE 16TH...IAH`S NOVEMBER RAINFALL TOTAL
STANDS AT 0.38 INCHES. NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH WOULD MAKE NOVEMBER 2006 THEIR 2ND DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.
GLS`S NOVEMBER RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH THE 16TH STANDS AT 0.36 INCHES.
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WOULD MAKE NOVEMBER
2006 THEIR 4ND DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. CLL`S NOVEMBER RAINFALL TOTAL
THROUGH THE 16TH STANDS AT 0.05 INCHES. NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH WOULD MAKE NOVEMBER 2006 THEIR DRIEST (#1) NOVEMBER
ON RECORD. AND IF YOU`VE FORGOTTEN...WE`RE COMING OFF THE 4TH WETTEST
OCTOBER ON RECORD AT IAH (14.53 INCHES)...THE 7TH WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD AT GLS (11.62 INCHES) AND THE 3RD WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AT
CLL (12.88 INCHES).

SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

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