November 15: Tornado Outbreak - Southeast US - 9 killed

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the tracks I have seen and the unconfirmed reports, the best estimate for the number of tornadoes in this outbreak (so far) is 29.

What is it with November 15th? Second straight year there was a significant outbreak (although this one was not quite as severe) on that date...which is also the date of an infamous one in 1989.

[wxmann_91]

Based on all the tracks I have seen and the unconfirmed reports, the best estimate for the number of tornadoes in this outbreak (so far) is 29.

What is it with November 15th? Second straight year there was a significant outbreak (although this one was not quite as severe) on that date...which is also the date of an infamous one in 1989.

Yeah...November can be a real pain as very few people in the general public know about the secondary tornado season. Lately, it has been active (I've done some research and the activity seems to go in cycles). Hopefully public awareness can be increased about this threat. Also with the dynamics in fall systems, nocturnal tornadoes are actually more common than one would think.

The last very active period before the 2000's was the late 1980's.

In fact...
Nov. 15-16, 1987 - Major outbreak from TX-MS. 11 people were killed when 50 tornadoes rampaged through five states in the SE.
Nov. 15, 1988 - 44 tornadoes rampaged through seven states from TX to IA. 7 people were killed.
Nov. 15-16, 1989 - In terms of quantity, much less tornadoes, but one happened to go through downtown Huntsville, AL killing 21. 9 other people were killed in the northeastern U.S. by an F1 tornado.

Interesting, isn't it? Actually, pretty creepy if you ask me. Some dates stand out as infamous weather event magnets. (several dates in May [tornado outbreaks] and Sept. [hurricane landfalls] also stand out)

BTW Craig -- are you going to do a verification for your forecast?

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the tracks I have seen and the unconfirmed reports, the best estimate for the number of tornadoes in this outbreak (so far) is 29.

What is it with November 15th? Second straight year there was a significant outbreak (although this one was not quite as severe) on that date...which is also the date of an infamous one in 1989.

Yeah...November can be a real pain as very few people in the general public know about the secondary tornado season. Lately, it has been active (I've done some research and the activity seems to go in cycles). Hopefully public awareness can be increased about this threat. Also with the dynamics in fall systems, nocturnal tornadoes are actually more common than one would think.

The last very active period before the 2000's was the late 1980's.

In fact...
Nov. 15-16, 1987 - Major outbreak from TX-MS. 11 people were killed when 50 tornadoes rampaged through five states in the SE.
Nov. 15, 1988 - 44 tornadoes rampaged through seven states from TX to IA. 7 people were killed.
Nov. 15-16, 1989 - In terms of quantity, much less tornadoes, but one happened to go through downtown Huntsville, AL killing 21. 9 other people were killed in the northeastern U.S. by an F1 tornado.

Interesting, isn't it? Actually, pretty creepy if you ask me. Some dates stand out as infamous weather event magnets. (several dates in May [tornado outbreaks] and Sept. [hurricane landfalls] also stand out)

BTW Craig -- are you going to do a verification for your forecast?

I normally don't go into verification.

[CrazyC83]

It's not over yet!!!

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SARASOTA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 860...WW 861...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
TPA SHORTLY...THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND
FIELDS...WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SARASOTA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 860...WW 861...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
TPA SHORTLY...THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND
FIELDS...WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 160434
WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

TORNADO WATCH 862 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-015-027-035-049-053-055-057-061-069-071-081-083-093-095-
097-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-127-160800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0862.061116T0440Z-061116T0800Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
FLAGLER HARDEE HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LAKE LEE MANATEE
MARION OKEECHOBEE ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS
POLK PUTNAM SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA


AMZ550-GMZ830-853-856-160800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0862.061116T0440Z-061116T0800Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

TAMPA BAY WATERS

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW2
WW 862 TORNADO FL CW 160440Z - 160800Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
25SSW SRQ/SARASOTA FL/ - 35ESE DAB/DAYTONA BEACH FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /22SSW SRQ - 36ESE OMN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 27728333 29638116 28317987 26398208

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.


Watch 862 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[wxmann_91]

New watch up for central FL:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0862.html

My opinion is the threat is pretty low...h85 winds aren't very strong so the boundary layer's already decoupled, and thus, these storms should be elevated. But it's always better to be safe than sound, I guess.

[CrazyC83]

New watch up for central FL:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0862.html

My opinion is the threat is pretty low...h85 winds aren't very strong so the boundary layer's already decoupled, and thus, these storms should be elevated. But it's always better to be safe than sound, I guess.

Agreed. Any other day, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch would suffice. But knowing what has happened, it is worth going to a Tornado Watch for the relatively low chance.

[CrazyC83]

Public | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR


Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
MIDNIGHT EST NOV 15 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 800 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 860...WW 861...WW 862...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SC WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CONVECTION
HAS ORGANIZED INTO A FORCED LINE...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH
WILL HELP LOW/DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH A
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HART

[Coredesat]

Here's an animated GIF I put together of this system forming and moving into the Southeast (WARNING, LARGE FILE - 4.8 MB):

http://d2rcr.cmcmoriginals.com/misc/ext ... 111506.gif

Scary how quickly this system formed.

[AnnularCane]

Nov. 15-16, 1987 - Major outbreak from TX-MS. 11 people were killed when 50 tornadoes rampaged through five states in the SE.

I remember this one, not because we got a tornado or anything really out of the ordinary, but because it was my first real tornado threat after I got interested in weather (my interest was mainly tornadoes at that time). I got all excited when we got put under a watch, then after that I got really nervous at the thought of getting hit with an actual tornado. I still thought being under a tornado watch was really cool though. Now I hate being under a watch.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NC...ERN SC...COASTAL GA...NERN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860...861...

VALID 160532Z - 160630Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ALONG AND E OF CONVECTIVE LINE.

LINE OF STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL NC SWD TO THE GA/NERN FL
COAST CONTINUES MOVING EWD. THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE OFF
THE GA/N FL COAST SHORTLY...THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN SC/SERN
NC -- WHERE NEWLY-ISSUED WW 863 IS NOW IN EFFECT.

THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE LINE...SHEAR REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES. THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GOSS.. 11/16/2006


ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...TAE...

29998299 30668225 32118123 35208078 35477995 35478010
31498046 29798084

[JuliannaMKH]

Here's a pic (not mine it's from WSFA.com) of the water tower that was destroyed in Hamilton Crossroads, AL


http://www.wsfa.com/Global/story.asp?S=5688666

[Lindaloo]

I have never known a water tower to be destroyed during a hurricane. So, this picture amazes me to see a water tower on the ground like this. Had to of been a tornado.

How big was the tornado? Has that been confirmed yet?

[CrazyC83]

I have never known a water tower to be destroyed during a hurricane. So, this picture amazes me to see a water tower on the ground like this. Had to of been a tornado.

How big was the tornado? Has that been confirmed yet?

No idea, but to do that means it has to be an F3 probably...

I am just catching up on the overnight tragedy in NC :'(

[milfordmawx]

Here's a great GRLevel3 view of the KLWX radar: http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/br2.htm

Nasty out there!

[lester]

Tell me about it...

[milfordmawx]

Here's the conditions on Chesapeake Bay too...some good wind: http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/CHBbuoy.php

[HurricaneBill]

I have never known a water tower to be destroyed during a hurricane.

During Hurricane Hilda in 1964, in the town of Erath, Louisiana, a water tower collapsed onto a building, killing 8 people.

[Opal storm]

I have never known a water tower to be destroyed during a hurricane.

During Hurricane Hilda in 1964, in the town of Erath, Louisiana, a water tower collapsed onto a building, killing 8 people.

I have also seen a photo from Hurricane Charley of a collapsed water tower.

[CrazyC83]

Outbreak death toll now 9 for tornadoes, plus 2 others from severe thunderstorms not related to tornadoes.

Two Mississippi tornadoes were rated as F3, and the Montgomery one was a high F2.

[Lindaloo]

I didn't know that. I was just informed that a water tower was blown down during CAT3 Katrina.