2006 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reports Thread

[Andrew92]

Alberto: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL012006_Alberto.pdf

Unnamed Tropical Storm: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL502006_Unnamed.pdf

Beryl: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL022006_Beryl.pdf

Chris: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL032006_Chris.pdf

Debby: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL042006_Debby.pdf

Ernesto: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL052006_Ernesto.pdf

Florence: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL062006_Florence.pdf

Gordon: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072006_Gordon.pdf

Helene: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL082006_Helene.pdf

Isaac: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092006_Isaac.pdf


Not sure if there's one of these threads up yet, but it's that time of year. The Alberto and Beryl reports have been up, the Debby report just came out. If you spot a report that comes up, post it here!

Mods/admins, if there's already a thread that I didn't know about, lock this and bump the old one.

EDIT: Wrong link for Alberto report originally posted, OOPS!

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Gordon report is now posted.

[Andrew92]

Thanks Luis! I didn't realize that Gordon caused some problems over in Europe as well. Fortunately there was little damage and no fatalities.

Like many, the one I anticipate most is the Ernesto report. First, I wonder if they'll downgrade Ernesto to a tropical storm near Haiti (very possible IMO). I also wonder if they'll upgrade Ernesto to a hurricane for the NC landfall (not likely IMO, but you never know). Not many reports to look forward to this year for a change, which is rather nice.

-Andrew92

[brunota2003]

Thanks Luis! I didn't realize that Gordon caused some problems over in Europe as well. Fortunately there was little damage and no fatalities.

Like many, the one I anticipate most is the Ernesto report. First, I wonder if they'll downgrade Ernesto to a tropical storm near Haiti (very possible IMO). I also wonder if they'll upgrade Ernesto to a hurricane for the NC landfall (not likely IMO, but you never know). Not many reports to look forward to this year for a change, which is rather nice.

-Andrew92

Yes...I look foreward to the Ernesto report to...a couple things I think will happen is that, off of Haita I believe it will stay a hurricane, however off of my coast, they will upgrade it to a hurricane prior to landfall, however before making landfall, weaken it back into a tropical storm...just what I think will happen...

[Derek Ortt]

there is no evidence to suggest that Ernesto reached hurricane intensity off of NC, and the upgrade near Haiti may also be revised since the peak 700mb winds were 69KT, equating to about 62-63KT at the surface, just under hurricane intensity before it was rocked by shear (by an UL that the models refused to acknowledge was there, even though a blind squirrel would have seen it)

[P.K.]

I didn't realize that Gordon caused some problems over in Europe as well. Fortunately there was little damage and no fatalities.

What isn't mentioned in the report is that the peak gusts at St Mary's were higher than listed there at at least 62kts with sustained winds (10 min of course) of 50kts at 1550GMT based on the METARs with a minimum pressure there of 984hPa. Also I saw a SYNOP from Pendennis Point in southern Cornwall of 60kt sustained winds in the 1800GMT report (They only report every three hours).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Indeed 2006 was a la 1997; not even one hurricane made landfall as a TC anywhere in Mainland North America. Of course on the not so bright side, 1997 was followed by the bad year of 1998; in which four hurricanes Bonnie, Earl, Georges and Mitch made landfall on the Mainland.

[Andrew92]

Actually there was one hurricane to make landfall in the mainland in 1997, Danny. And I think Mitch was a tropical storm when it reached Florida, albeit a strong one with winds around 65 MPH.

But yeah, this season was like 1997. Doesn't mean next year will be more active of course; however, be prepared as always.

-Andrew92

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I forgot about Danny, dang.

As for Mitch I was counting his landfall in Central America; which is in Mainland North America.

[Andrew92]

I forgot about Danny, dang.

As for Mitch I was counting his landfall in Central America; which is in Mainland North America.

OK, thanks for clarifying that. I thought you meant just the U.S., and yes Mitch did of course hit (and devastate) Central America.

Hopefully one more report will come out before the weekend is here!

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Helene is now up!

[cycloneye]

Now only 4 reports are left.

Andrew92,apart from the Ernesto report that is the most anticipated one,I am interested to see the Tropical Storm Chris report to see when it was just north of Puerto Rico how they describe all of what occured with the decouple issue.

[Andrew92]

Now only 4 reports are left.

Andrew92,apart from the Ernesto report that is the most anticipated one,I am interested to see the Tropical Storm Chris report to see when it was just north of Puerto Rico how they describe all of what occured with the decouple issue.

Yeah, that decoupling will be interesting to read about in the Chris report. The intensity part of the forecast verification is something I expect to be quite a read.

I also wonder exactly what type of effects there were in Bermuda from Florence, according to the NHC. Although damage was likely minimal, there could still be some interesting stats from there. Isaac, I suppose there could be some good data from Newfoundland, but I'm not really interested in Isaac.

Getting into the guessing game a bit, I pick Isaac to be next. If not Isaac, then Florence.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

So, according to the Final Reports we got a tie for the strongest of the season.

Gordon & Helene = 105 knots / 120 mph. 955 mb.

[CrazyC83]

Not much to look forward to, unlike with last season afterward. Not only are there probably few surprises coming in the TCR's, the 2012 list will likely be the same as the 2006 list. The real excitement is in the Pacific...

[WindRunner]

We do want to look out for some possible new storms, such as the one in mid-July that formed further up the front from Beryl. I believe wxman57 had a good map showing it at one time.

Granted we can't anticipate these, but there were two or three candidates for additional inclusion as storms, such as the one of the NC coast in late June and the one I mentioned above, as well as 91C (though that one probably wouldn't come via the NHC).

[wxman57]

We do want to look out for some possible new storms, such as the one in mid-July that formed further up the front from Beryl. I believe wxman57 had a good map showing it at one time.

Granted we can't anticipate these, but there were two or three candidates for additional inclusion as storms, such as the one of the NC coast in late June and the one I mentioned above, as well as 91C (though that one probably wouldn't come via the NHC).

Yeah, 96L is the one I think will definitely be included. Originally, the NHC said it was a "frontal low" off Nova Scotia. I saved a surface plot showing SE winds and low 70 dew points all across Nova Scotia as the low passed offshore. If it was a frontal low, there should have been a front south of Nova Scotia, but there was no front offshore. Whether the NHC includes it or not before Nov. 30th affects who wins our office pool for named storms/hurricanes/majors.


It was clearly a tropical storm. Here's the picture.

[Andrew92]

Isaac is now up. Told ya Isaac would be next!

[Ptarmigan]

Actually there was one hurricane to make landfall in the mainland in 1997, Danny. And I think Mitch was a tropical storm when it reached Florida, albeit a strong one with winds around 65 MPH.

But yeah, this season was like 1997. Doesn't mean next year will be more active of course; however, be prepared as always.

-Andrew92

1997 was quiet due to El Nino, one of the strongest on record. 1998 was an active season, same with 1999.

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah, 96L is the one I think will definitely be included. Originally, the NHC said it was a "frontal low" off Nova Scotia. I saved a surface plot showing SE winds and low 70 dew points all across Nova Scotia as the low passed offshore. If it was a frontal low, there should have been a front south of Nova Scotia, but there was no front offshore. Whether the NHC includes it or not before Nov. 30th affects who wins our office pool for named storms/hurricanes/majors.


It was clearly a tropical storm. Here's the picture.

I remember that. It was called a gale area. I think it was at least a sub-tropical storm to even a tropical storm.