SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[Extremeweatherguy]

9pm airport update:

Hooks = 42F
IAH = 45F
Hobby = 45F
Conroe = 38F <<<BRRR!!!
Galveston = 54F

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out the weather.com forecast for Spring, TX next week:

Sunday
67°/39°
SUNNY

Monday
62°/33°
SUNNY

Tuesday
63°/37°
SUNNY

3 mornings straight in the 30s (especially with one night right near freezing) is pretty impressive for November if this plays out!

BTW, the 0Z GFS shows Monday struggling to get too much above the middle 50s. Forecast highs may need to be cut back further in future forecasts.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
^^10C line along TX border on Monday afternoon. (10C = 50F)^^

Cities to our east in southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL panhandle may struggle to even make 50F!!!

Also, the GFS now indicates the freeze line may even flirt with SE Texas by Tuesday morning (similar to the weather.com forecast above):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

[CajunMama]

BRRRRRRRRR!

And now a shameless plug! http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=91218

[Yankeegirl]

its sitting at 43 now....

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out the latest NWS forecast! Is that a freeze I see?

Today: Sunny, with a high near 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 46. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 39.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 61.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 30.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly cloudy, with a high near 77.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 AM CST FRI NOV 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN
TO THE AREA. AM EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS AS THE
RESIDENT AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS JUST A TAD WARMER. WITH LOW LEVELS
MOISTENING UP A BIT...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG EARLY
SATURDAY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
DEVELOPING EAST COAST TROUGH THAT RETROGRADES TOWARD FLORIDA AND
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OUT EAST. THE RIDGE
SHOULD KEEPS THINGS RATHER QUIET AROUND HERE WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE AIR MASS ON
MON/TUES WILL BE RATHER DRY AND AM EXPECTING SOME VERY COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MON/TUE MORNING. THINK THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE IT`S
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH
EAST ALLOWING S-SW WINDS TO RETURN WED-FRI. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
RAPID WARMING AT 850 MB WED/THU. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS TOO
COOL AND HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE. OCTOBER WAS
EXTREMELY WET AND NOVEMBER IS JUST THE INVERSE. SO FAR THIS
MONTH...IAH HAS ONLY RECEIVED 0.38 INCHES WHICH IS THE SECOND
DRIEST ON RECORD. 43

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am at 34.7F this morning, Hooks is at 37, Conroe is at 33, and IAH was at 37 (but recently rose to 39F for some unknown reason).

Also, as the sun comes up, I am noticing a lot of rooftop frost in my area.

[vbhoutex]

WE have managed a 36ºf reading here at the house this am. Definitely cold for November. We also have seen the flucuation in temperature up and down EWG. Slmost like a warm spot moved through the area. Now at 37.5ºf.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't know if I can participate in this thread since I am not in SE Texas, but still on the coast.

Here on the northwest side of Corpus at 6:30 AM I had 39.7.

[Portastorm]

I don't know if I can participate in this thread since I am not in SE Texas, but still on the coast.

Here on the northwest side of Corpus at 6:30 AM I had 39.7.

Well, you're in the southeast half of Texas, aren't you?!

[Johnny]

Pretty chilly here in Conroe this morning with a 32.8 reading on my digital thermometer at first light! We had a nice frost across our back pasture this morning.

On another note: I went hunting on my property up in Madison County yesterday afternoon. As the sun started to dip behind the trees, the winds went dead calm and the temperature plummeted in a matter of minutes. I guess it was around 60 to 62 before the sun hit the tree line. I got down out of my stand right at dark and man it was cold. I started up the truck and it was 42 degrees already!

Hey EWG, how cold did Madisonville get this morning? I sure hope they got a heave frost to kill off the goat weed. That stuff is killer on the sinuses.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't know if I can participate in this thread since I am not in SE Texas, but still on the coast.

Here on the northwest side of Corpus at 6:30 AM I had 39.7.

Well, you're in the southeast half of Texas, aren't you?!

I guess I am technically in the southest half of south Texas. Kind of like the former Southwest Texas U (now Texas State) was in the southwest part of south central Texas. Right ????

[Portastorm]

I don't know if I can participate in this thread since I am not in SE Texas, but still on the coast.

Here on the northwest side of Corpus at 6:30 AM I had 39.7.

Well, you're in the southeast half of Texas, aren't you?!

I guess I am technically in the southest half of south Texas. Kind of like the former Southwest Texas U (now Texas State) was in the southwest part of south central Texas. Right ????

EXACTLY!!!

On a more serious note ... while I see and enjoy the regional nature of our discussion threads, there are those posts that affect all of us and I wonder how we can communicate. The posts about low temps this morning both in C/SC TX and SE TX may be more enjoyed if they were in one thread and not two.

Eh, I haven't had enough coffee yet to figure this one out. Maybe someone else can ...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

How about just a "Texas Winter Thread?"

What eventually hits Amarillo, hits the rest of the state down the road. At least that's the way it should be in a normal winter. Correct?

[jasons2k]

-- The temp probably fluctuated due to the wind veering and stirring things up a bit.

-- That's a bummer for next week. If that verifies then all the banana trees turn to mush quite early this year

[Yankeegirl]

Last night here it dropped to 38.7, that was the official at my house.. lol...

[JenBayles]

All I know is that our programmable thermostat has not been reprogrammed and it was COLD this morning! Lord but it was hard to get out of that bed. I was the first one up, and the dogs slept in with Dave while I got the coffee going and house warmed up. Some life! When I die, I want to be reincarnated as one of my dogs....

[Extremeweatherguy]

How about just a "Texas Winter Thread?"

What eventually hits Amarillo, hits the rest of the state down the road. At least that's the way it should be in a normal winter. Correct?

Yes, I will probably start something like that after this thread is locked (25 pages).

[CajunMama]

I don't know if I can participate in this thread since I am not in SE Texas, but still on the coast.

Here on the northwest side of Corpus at 6:30 AM I had 39.7.

Well, you're in the southeast half of Texas, aren't you?!

I guess I am technically in the southest half of south Texas. Kind of like the former Southwest Texas U (now Texas State) was in the southwest part of south central Texas. Right ????

You are more than welcome to post in any thread you wish about your weather regardless if the title has a geographical location in it or not. Bre, PTracker and I post in this thread only because our weather is so similar to se texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest NWS forecast is a bit odd. The temperatures and the AFD do not match:

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 71. East wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 41. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 39.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 65.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 34.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly cloudy, with a high near 77.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OVER TX EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
LIGHT NE WINDS UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF
FOLLOWING RECENT MEMORY OF EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER A FROPA (THIS MORNING) THEN HAVE NO REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT TUESDAY MORNING MINIMUMS MAY FLIRT WITH 32 FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. AFTER A BRISK START
TUESDAY...THE NEXT FEW SUBSEQUENT DAYS AND NIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES...RESPECTIVELY.

34-35F is not flirting with 32F. If they say flirting with 32F in the AFD, then they should put "32F" as their forecast.

Either way though, it looks COLD! 30-35F temperatures should be widespread early Tuesday with possible 29-30F readings in Conroe. Brrr...

BTW, if we do have a freeze at IAH, then this will be the coldest November night since Nov. 3rd, 1999 (when IAH hit 30F). Hard to believe isn't it?

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing that really confuses me though (yet again) are the local media forecasts:

NBC (Chan. 2):


ABC (Chan. 13):


I just do not understand how they can forecast so warm? There is just no way we are at 40F Monday night if the pattern is even close to what the models and the NWS are predicting...it is just simply impossible...and that is why I am confused by why the news stations like to stay so warm? ABC 13 is at least a little more sensible (at 38F), but still the NWS is calling for low to mid 30s..not upper 30s to lower 40s. I guess they COULD be right if the models completely shifted, but for now I think those forecasts are going to bust big time.

Time will tell I guess..


BTW, for comparison, here are the exact forecast numbers from the NWS for Monday night (as of their afternoon update):

IAH = 35F
Downtown Houston = 37F
Hobby = 38F
Conroe = 33F
Hooks = 34F