Interesting Scenario Off SE CONUS T'giving Week

[Scott_inVA]

Non-tropical Low should develop of FL/Southeast coast early next week.

Suggested model tracks here:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/hw3/hw3.ph ... r=00&dpp=0

Could be interesting from NOR down to SAV. Who knows, maybe even an Invest?!

These model maps of CONUS are free year-round
Just pick the model and run time.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[hial2]

Scott, when you mention NOR, you mean North Carolina, right?

[Steve H.]

Actually the 0Z EC is even closer to the coast. Waiting for the 12Z. Could be quite windy in the SE/Florida coasts for turkey. Cool too, forecast in the 40's east central Florida at night. Nice for putting a log on the fire!!

[fci]

Plus a mention of rain in SE FLa with night time temps in 40's.
Quite unusual

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
120 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2006

VALID 12Z MON NOV 20 2006 - 12Z FRI NOV 24 2006

...STRONG COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING WEEK...

EASTWARD...

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS WITH THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU DAY
4/TUES...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
DEEPEST SOLN WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE SWLY BY DAY
5/WED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED TOO PHASED AND NLY INTO
THEIR FORECAST PDS WITH THE LAST TWO CUT OFF LOWS E OF THE MS
RVR...GENERALLY NOT PICKING UP ON THE GENERALLY PSN OF THE H5 LOW
UNTIL 3 DAYS OUT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER TO CUT OFF THE LOW THAN THE
GFS BUT IS MORE NLY WITH ITS PSN EARLY IN THE PD. GIVEN THE PAST
PERFORMANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE SLY H5 LOW LIKE THE GFS
EARLY IN THE PD...BUT THE GFS HOLDS ONTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWER NRN STREAM TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST DAYS 4/TUES AND 5/WED
WHICH IT DID YESTERDAY AND IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION.
OVERALL...ECMWF WITH SOME SMALL PERCENTAGE OF GFS ADDED SERN
SEABORD LOW. AFTER DAY 6 THE MORE WLY DRIFT OF 00Z ECMWF HAS FEW
FRIENDS...SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES. 00Z CANADIAN POSITIONING IS
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND AND THE 00Z ECMWF. HPC PROGS ARE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THOSE THREE MODELS.

MODEL FORECAST STANDARD DEVIATIONS ARE IN THE EXTREME RANGE FROM
BOTH THE 00Z RUNS GFS AND ECMWF WITH VERY LOW HTS AT LOW LATITUDES
WITH NUMBERS RANGES 6 POSSIBILTY 7 BELOW NORMAL OVER SRN FL WITH
THIS CLOSED/CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW.

THIS WILL BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEK FOR THE
ATLC SEABOARD AND WRN ATLC. ONSHORE GALE TO NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS
FROM THE DELMARVA INTO FL TUE-THU AND WITH A CONTD LINGER ALONG
THE MID ATLC COAST INTO FRI. A HVY RAIN THREAT FROM THE OUTER
BANKS TO NERN FL TUE/WED SPREADING NWD INTO VA/MD/DE/NJ AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN NEW ENG LATE THURS AND FRI. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ONSHORE GALE WINDS ENHANCED BY A FAVORABLE SPRING TIDAL
LUNAR CYCLE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND BEACH EROSION AND
TIDAL FLOODING FOR SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY MID ATLC COAST...BUT VERY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FL EAST COAST DEPENDING UPON THE SFC LOW
POSITION. PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AGAINST
THE GULF STREAM FLOW WILL BE A MAJOR SHIPPING HAZARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. SEE OPC WARNINGS/DISCUSSIONS.

ELSW AWAY FROM THE COAST VERY COOL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND REGIONS FROM THE MID ATLC DEEP INTO FLORIDA TUES AND
WED...AS MUCH AS 15 BELOW NORMAL ACROSS FLORIDA AND REMAINING COOL
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[JonathanBelles]

im sensing a nor'easter tue/wed/t'day in the eastern seaboard

[HurricaneBelle]

Sounds like a replay of the Thanksgiving 1984 storm that battered the Eastern Florida coast.

[Scott_inVA]

Scott, when you mention NOR, you mean North Carolina, right?

No, Norfolk, VA (sorry, gone all day).

Scott

[brunota2003]

Scott, when you mention NOR, you mean North Carolina, right?

No, Norfolk, VA (sorry, gone all day).

Scott

Regardless...you had to throw NC into the mix huh? BTW...my long term discussion on this:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2006

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UNSETTLED WX THROUGH
EARLY TO MID WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LVL TROF DIGS INTO THE SE. THIS
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF (POSSIBLY BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST
OF FL) WILL TRIGGER A SFC COASTAL LOW BY MON. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OFF THE NC COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS...AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRES
INLAND EXPECT A STRONG PRES GRAD TO DEVELOP LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH WED OR THU. EVERY MODEL FROM THE
ECMWF TO THE CANADIAN ALL SHOW A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
COAST...THE POSITION IN RELATION TO OUR COAST HAS VARIED FROM RUN
TO RUN HOWEVER. THIS SMALL YET SIG DIFFERENCE IN LOW POSITIONING
COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND COLD RAIN OR MOSTLY
SUNNY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COAST. WILL TAKE A BLEND AND LEAN A
BIT TOWARDS THE WETTER/COOLER FCST. THE TEMPS HAVE EVEN BEEN SHOWN
AS LOW AS TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP...TO SOME
MODELS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S. THINK A MOSTLY CLOUDY/LOW
50S/LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FCST SEEMS REASONABLE FOR EARLY NEXT WK.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS IT INTENSIFIES.
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
IN. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Now, wintry precip in coastal NC in November? that is weird...I dont know the last time we got any in Nov, late Dec yes...but mid to late Nov? this completely proves global warming is happening (I know...you cant base it off of just one area...)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

...EAST COAST...

SLOWER CUTOFF LOW AND ESPECIALLY DEEP ANOMALOUS H500 DEVIATIONS IN
THE 5-7 RANGE BELOW NORMAL SEEN BY ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ALL INDICATE
A VERY UNUSUAL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. DETAILS WILL
REMAIN IN DOUBT FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AND MOST LIKELY EVEN IN THE
SHORT RANGE. CUTOFF LOWS SEEM TO ALWAYS HAVE SURPRISES AND USUALLY
MOVE SLOWER..OFTEN MUCH SLOWER THAN MODELS FORECAST. PREFERENCE
AGAIN TODAY IS TOWARD THE SLOWER DEEPER MORE OMINOUS AND USUALLY
SUPERIOR ECMWF WITH A GRADUAL FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM FOR
DAYS 5-7. ATLC SEABOARD..MAINLY FROM NJ TO FL BUT ESPECIALLY
DELMARVA THRU THE NC OUTER BANKS WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
GALE WINDS/HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING ENHANCED BY
A FAVORABLE SPRING TIDAL PHASE. MDT/HVY RAINS POSSIBLE FROM SERN
VA TO NERN SC. MARITIME SHIPPING THREAT WITH PROLONGED GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS AGAINST GULF STREAM FLOW PERSISTING TUES INTO
THU. SEE OPC MARINE WARNINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Joe B Mentioned a worst case scenario for this system of cold Hurricane force winds and 30+ft seas if a tropical wave from the Caribbean becomes entrained into the system.

[hial2]

Joe B Mentioned a worst case scenario for this system of cold Hurricane force winds and 30+ft seas if a tropical wave from the Caribbean becomes entrained into the system.

Snow in Florida???

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Snow in Florida???

Whats that you're trying to say??
There's a Show in florida???
Its slow in Florida???
Snot in Florida???
What?????!!

[JonathanBelles]

Joe B Mentioned a worst case scenario for this system of cold Hurricane force winds and 30+ft seas if a tropical wave from the Caribbean becomes entrained into the system.

Snow in Florida???

i know your joking but any hope is good. if it could only hold on 37 days

[hial2]

Joe B Mentioned a worst case scenario for this system of cold Hurricane force winds and 30+ft seas if a tropical wave from the Caribbean becomes entrained into the system.

Snow in Florida???

i know your joking but any hope is good. if it could only hold on 37 days

Joking of course....but I have a daughter studying in Gainesville Fl and she says that while uncommon, it HAS been known to get a "dusting"every so often there...Hey, I have been there when the temperature has been 19 degrees centigrade (I once had to buy her car a radiator when it busted with freezing water )

[JonathanBelles]

19 degrees centigrade is quite cool but i think you mean f.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Oh! You're talking about this.


Or more recently: Jacksonville Fla 12/23/89

[Regit]

Yeah, 19 centigrade is almost room temperature.

[hial2]

19 degrees centigrade is quite cool but i think you mean f.

This happens when I try to be "sophisticated"... ...and "cool"..(pun intended)

[AnnularCane]

Snow in Florida???

Whats that you're trying to say??
There's a Show in florida???
Its slow in Florida???
Snot in Florida???
What?????!!

It is cold and flu season, so there probably is snot in Florida.