Interesting Scenario Off SE CONUS T'giving Week

[Chacor]

NLMOC issuance at 2039Z 18 Nov:

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/OTSR EAST COAST SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY//
POC/SHIP ROUTING OFFICER/-/NAVLANTMETOCCEN/LOC:NORFOLK VA
/TEL:757-444-4044/EMAIL: SRO.NMFA_N.001.FCT@NAVY.MIL//
RMKS/1. OTSR HAS ISSUED AN EAST COAST SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY
EFFECTIVE 201800Z NOV 06 AND EXTENDING THRU 240000Z NOV 06 FOR
AREA DESCRIBED BELOW:
28-00N 80-00W
28-00N 74-00W
38-00N 64-00W
39-30N 74-00W
36-54N 75-42W (CHESAPEAKE LIGHT)
35-00N 75-24W (DIAMOND SHOALS LIGHT)
33-29N 77-35W (FRYING PAN SHOALS)
30-23N 81-19W (ST JOHNS SEA BUOY)
28-00N 80-00W
WIND/SEAS FORECAST OVER THIS AREA 35 TO 50 GUSTS 65 KNOTS/12 TO 16
FEET WITH MAX OF 18 TO 22 FEET EAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST BY 210000Z, RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN ADDITION, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW, RETARDING
ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AND MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
3. OTSR ADVISES ALL UNITS WHOSE LIMITS ARE EXCEEDED BY CONDITIONS
DESCRIBED PARA 1, SEEK SAFE HAVEN IN PORT OR AVOID THIS WARNING
AREA UNTIL CONDITIONS ABATE TO ACCEPTABLE LEVELS.
4. OTSR WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION
AND ISSUE FURTHER WEATHER ADVISORIES/DIVERT RECOMMENDATIONS AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
5. FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT THE SHIP ROUTING OFFICER USING
INFORMATION LISTED ABOVE, OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.NAVY.MIL.//

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Uhh-ohhhh NWS Jacksonville mentioning something weird falling from the sky this week....In SE Ga anyway so far. Im guessing they mean bird poop. Arent we glad elephants dont fly!

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BEGINS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CENTER STILL WELL OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST.
DESPITE THIS...INTERACTION WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MON AFTERNOON WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S. MODELS ALSO SHOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD A
MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL THE WAY TO 700 MB FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA. WITH SUCH A
VIGOROUS TROUGH AND IF MOISTURE DOES INDEED BECOME THIS PLENTIFUL
AS GFS SUGGESTS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WOULD BE WARRANTED. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS EVEN MORE...THICKNESS VALUES DO SUGGEST PRECIP
OTHER THAN RAIN OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD
FIRST DATE EVENT BY SOME 30 TO 31 DAYS. FORTUNATELY...THIS IS THE
FIRST GFS RUN TO SHOW THIS MUCH MOISTURE AND THE NAM IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AND SLIGHTLY LESS COOL. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY
GO 10% IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND WAIT TO GET A FEW MORE GFS RUNS
UNDER OUR BELTS.

[SCMedic]

The S word has been flying in a number of area's.. Mainly Monday and Tuesday night here in Charleston...That would be a sight..

000
FXUS62 KCHS 190856
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM COULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS
SURF TO THE COAST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES
OVER THE ERN CONUS TDA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP OFFSET WEAK CAA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S IN MOST LOCALES. THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AS S/W ENERGY NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS DIGS
INTO IT/S BACKSIDE. LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING
DUE TO 5-10 MPH WINDS AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ASSCD WITH THE
TROUGH. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS OUR FAR INTERIOR
ZONES AND INLAND PORTIONS OF SE GA. IF FCSTD LOW TEMPS REMAIN ON
TRACK AND SFC WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SCATTERED FROST WHICH WUD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY FOR SOME OF OUR
GA COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MON CAUSING LOW
PRES TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST. NLY FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW WILL
DRAG LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA MAKING FOR QUITE A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S. TOUGH CALL ON RAIN CHANCES AS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH ATTM
TO REMOVE THE ONGOING SLGT CHC POPS FOR MON AFTN.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...DEEP H5 TROUGH TO DIG
INTO THE SERN CONUS TUE WITH SFC LOW DVLPMNT OFFSHORE.
INTERESTINGLY...MODEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...SFC DRY BULB AND WET BULB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AS WELL AS CLIMO PRECLUDE US FROM MENTIONING ANY FROZEN
PRECIP AT THIS POINT. GENERAL SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FCST.
&&

[cpdaman]

well noaa marine forecast is callng for winds 53 to 70 mph tuesday and wednesday in the offshore forecast for GA- SC especially the gulf stream per


STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TUE INTO THU

W OF 76W...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 KT TUE
AND CONTINUING WED. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 TO 26 FT TUE AND TO 22
TO 35 FT WED. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM

something tell me there is a POSSIBILITY of a rare early season SNOW storm in the eastern carolina's and maybe flurries down to northern FL

i have noticed the storms this year have been quite strong and i think given my personal beleif about the times we are entering the possibility exists for storms that are quite historic

there is still alot of uncertainty regarding this sytem

[Frank2]

As you mentioned, still a lot of uncertainty with this system - the below is from the late morning forecast discussion at the Miami WSFO:

HOWEVER...MINOR DIFFERENCES HAVE APPEARED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE. FOR EXAMPLE...PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. NOW THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 24 OR 25 KNOTS
EARLY TUESDAY...SIMILARLY FOR THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. THAT IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

I'm in agreement with the above, and, believe that this low might form further east of the east coast than earlier forecast, which would mean better weather (and less chance of any type of precip) for the entire east coast - we'll see...

Frank

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

EAST COAST...

THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH AN INTENSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND.
GFS HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR NOV ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
FINAL PROGS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED FROM MORNING DRAFTS...AS
NOT ALL TRENDS MATCH. THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL IS SLOWER BUT ALSO
RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ONSHORE...WHILE THE 12Z UKMET PROVIDES
RAPID ACCELERATION 96-120 HOURS...LEADING TO BIG DIFFERENCES. OUR
PREFERENCE CONTINUES TO BE FOR CONTINUITY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS FCST AND CLOSE TO THE SLOW 00Z/12Z ECMWF
FORWARD MOTION. SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS FROM THE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES AND OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR EXPECTED
WIND/WAVE AND RELATED COASTAL IMPACTS...AND FORECAST OFFICE/HPC
QPF PROGS FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[cpdaman]

while the miami coastal areas forecast may have decreased (at least temporally)

look what we got for the charleston, SC 320 pm marine outlook

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn ... anz088.txt

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF STREAM TUE INTO
WED

W OF 76W...NE WINDS 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT TO
65 KT IN THE GULF STREAM.

this will be fun to watch unravel

[brunota2003]

This is posted in the USA Wx also, under my Eastern NC thread...but figured I'd post it here to:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

NCZ093-095-103-104-200815-
CRAVEN-CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...MOREHEAD CITY...
BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...KILL DEVIL HILLS...
KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
337 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE COAST MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE LONG DURATION
OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AND
OVERWASH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. ADDITIONAL
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS...WEST
ACROSS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY TO SOUTHERN CRAVEN COUNTY. WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND WIND
ADVISORIES OR EVEN HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HOWEVER RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST ARE URGED
TO BE PREPARED FOR THIS ADVERSE WEATHER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL
HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE
INFORMATION.


$$

RF

[Emmett_Brown]

Jax forecast discussion mentions a possibility of frozen precip mixing in for NE FL...

"THE EMPHASIS ON A "COLD" RAIN AS SOME MODEL PROFILES ARE INDICATING A LOW CHANCE OF FROZEN PCPN MIXED IN AT TIMES. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE."

http://kamala.cod.edu/ga/latest.fxus62.KJAX.html

[hurricanedude]

maybe even a prolong period of Mixed Precip for north FL.
From The NWS JAX

TUESDAY...VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INLAND
WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE COASTAL AREAS A TRUE WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLD DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. ALONG WITH THE
WIND...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLD/SCTD COLD RAIN
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE FROZEN MIX DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL PROFILE
YOU BELIEVE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND. MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLE COLD
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL MIXED PCPN.

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out this NWS screen capture I found from the KHOU.com message boards (Houston news station). It is showing a chance of snow in northern Florida tomorrow night:

http://i15.tinypic.com/4e065hh.jpg

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

maybe even a prolong period of Mixed Precip for north FL.
From The NWS JAX

Hmm, I was thinking they meant overnite/early am mix and daytime rain but maybe they are thinking it may not get as warm as their current forecast if it stays gray/rainy(?) all day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

maybe even a prolong period of Mixed Precip for north FL.
From The NWS JAX

Hmm, I was thinking they meant overnite/early am mix and daytime rain but maybe they are thinking it may not get as warm as their current forecast if it stays gray/rainy(?) all day.

I have seen sleet fall (mixed with rain) as warm as 46F here in north Houston before...so may be they think a similar thing could happen there?

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

This map and forecast would be typical of a hurricane. Any chance the NHC mentions this when it gets cranking?? Invest still possible??? Wonder what SHIPS/GFDL would say if ran?

ANZ086-200830-

HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W.

930 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006...STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED MON NIGHT...

...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF STREAM TUE INTO

THU...



.TUE THROUGH WED...W OF 75W...NE WINDS 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT TO

65 KT IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 TO 35 FT

[Coredesat]

Calm down, calm down.

There is WAY too much cool air in the area for this to develop into a tropical cyclone. Subtropical, maybe, but not a tropical cyclone.

[JonathanBelles]

the weather guy on th enews said that blob would be just off the coast of jacksonville.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Amazing Look at the HPC three day QPF for the Coastal SE:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

That is around nine inches, mostly in 48 hr; for the worst hit areas.

[Scott_inVA]

Folks,

Other comments this will *not* be a tropical cyclone are correct.

I've been posting some comments about the storm on the Mid-Atlantic WX.com blog:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/blog.htm

CONUS model maps are displayed as well, or you can click below for current models:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/hw3/hw3.ph ... r=00&dpp=0

Click Zulu and model for current maps.

Despite not being a purely tropical system, still unsure if there will be an Invest on this. Seems eastern NC is the vortex of wild weather this month.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[jdray]

This is the time of year I hate living here.

35F and ice cold rain, no snow.

[Bane]

living on the coast in wilmington will be no fun this week.